This is really the main argument against Iosys. We don't need math to prove it. Most here will agree that we will never meet ET life or very advanced beings in our lifetimes but nearly all will agree that the probability of extraterrestrial life is quite high.

It may seem unlikely to you iosys because we are a very young species. Consider this: our species is only 2.3Myr old, dating back to the earliest known humans, h-omo habilis. (as if 2+2 wouldn't let me type it) Now consider this - the Universe is 14Gyr old, meaning some of the oldest planetary systems can be ~10Gyr old which means some civilizations can be on the order of 5000x more advanced than us. You really think they can't build a few ships to travel across the galaxy? Even if the laws of physics say you can't go more than ~0.2c without tearing organic bodies to shred, they have plenty of time to go from system to system.

If that still doesn't phase you ask yourself this: what will we be able to do in only a few hundred million years? Exactly. Other civilizations may have BILLIONS of years on us.

And there's also the law of accelerating returns, which although it lacks a good explanation, is apparently at work in the evolution of our civilization.

yes, as long as we come to the conclusion we should stop assuming aliens will be non-peaceful.

We should point out that when talking on this scale, the evolutionists should have the perspective that we've had 3-4 billion years ourselves.

Not necessarily. I pointed out that our species is only 2.3Myr old. Other civilizations may have had 3-4Gyr to evolve to comparable beings, but still have up to 10Gyr on us. What I said is not incorrect.

Or another way of putting it, is if I take your point, fine - it's taken humans 3-4 Gyr to evolve, but other civilizations may have taken 3-4Gyr to evolve and have 10Gyr on us. Therefore, they're still ahead by 10Gyr

Ya you're still correct, but I'm just pointing out when we take a view of aliens on, we realize we aren't a human race separate from any other earth creature, instead we realize we are the goo behind the process of evolution.


Otherwise a race on a planet at year 2gyr is not the same race as one evolved 3gys later....but they are the same technology building movement or 'goo'.