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4% ROI cash game DFS 4% ROI cash game DFS

06-04-2019 , 09:29 AM
I'm primarily a cash game player. Right now I'm focused on Yahoo because they have the lowest rake. I play under the username "adam"

I'm not a full time dfs player, but do have a lot of time to dedicate to it because I make my own hours as a freelance IT consultant. I've built my own models for each sport I play.

Since beginning of the year, I've invested roughly 100k (anywhere from $50 to $2k per night depending on how many slates and how many people take my h2hs).

I have a 4% return thus far this year for 4k in profit.

I'm looking for backers to expand to other DFS platforms for upcoming football season. If both parties are interested, we can expand it to other sports as well at the conclusion of the season.

Willing to share csv files of play history to serious backers

Please pm me for details

Thank you

-Adam
4% ROI cash game DFS Quote
06-05-2019 , 03:36 AM
I also should state that after seeing all the other listings, I think maybe I'm selling myself a bit short with those numbers. They don't include the NFL and beginning of the NBA season, which are by far the most profitable times. The idea wasn't to cherry pick numbers and simply giving last 6 months of results seemed fine.

I regularly finish in the top 100 in the yahoo cups, most recently finishing 5th in the NBA cup out of 100k. The yahoo cup is a 50k freeroll with aggregate scoring over the course of the season. While the majority of those 100k people involved are casual freeroll chasers, it's still a fantastic barometer of who are among the most consistently productive DFS players. For what it's worth, I was in 1st place until the final 3 weeks where it was more a game of guess which coach would give a g league guy 40 minutes.

Yahoo also gives percentile ratings to each user so they know where they stand, I'm always diamond, meaning in the top 1%.

In order to challenge myself, I started off the 2018 MLB season with $100, while my ROI is in single digits, when compounded nightly, it's powerful enough to turn that $100 (with careful bankroll management) into over $15k profit in on year (4k of which come in 2019, like I said, beginning of NBA season and NFL far more profitable than MLB - which is more of a slow grind).

I'm open to pursuing MME and have been profitable in the 10x max entry Yahoo's limited gpp formats allow. This would require tweaking my models but could easily be accomplished in time for the NFL season.

Looking forward to hearing back from interested backers.
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09-09-2019 , 09:35 AM
week 1 update

4k in
3.3k out
1.2kish from full week slate still pending




looks good since majority of villains are out of mana and i am super heavy on kamara with a decent amount of tyrell williams as well, i expect that number to rise a little to maybe 1.4k but who knows anything could happen and could still have a losing slate

largely aided by being super heavy on CMC on a slate where he surprisingly wasn't too popular, really hate how last minute i talked myself into pivoting carson to chubb in cash as i was right on the cutoff of some pay jumps in single entry and I also talked myself out of my mahomes/watkins stack in gpp

but otherwise can't complain about any slate with a positive ROI, very few guys took my h2hs this week and that makes it tough since i'm blocked by anyone i'd want to take the action of but you always get lol lineups like this sitting you from time to time - this is probably the worst h2h lineup i've ever seen - thank god for week 1 amirite

https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...44888/94092507
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09-30-2019 , 12:56 AM
week 4 results

i'm barely getting any h2h action as my username is becoming better known, for example I'm now even blocked by a few well known players who I felt I was +EV against h2h such as awesemo.

was hoping to get more volume in but doesn't seem likely on yahoo as I'm already basically max entering everything

again, looking for a stake to expand upon these activities on other sites (thinking fantasy draft given they are excellent with rake structure)

on the year for nfl I've put in 16k over 4 weeks and have brought 20k out

this should be 7k profit and not 4k but in week 2 Yahoo had that crazy no rake and overly $20 150 mme so I took a shot at it and didn't pan out so well because the chalk hit very hard and I had a bunch of failed pivots like corey davis, devante parker, MVS and moncrief
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10-07-2019 , 01:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
Yeah the min cash line in gpps was close to 200

I did well in cash but didn't have the magic Watson/Fuller/cmc/eagles chalk all in one line to do well in gpp and since h2h action basically non existent anymore an overall slight loss

Brings total to 21k in and 23k

Again, did very well in cash but basically nobody takes my h2hs anymore and anyone who I want to take blocks me by now

Yahoo's had a bunch of overlay each week in their big gpps and I've invested heavily in those yet and thus far has not panned out, otherwise ROI would be much higher if I stuck to cash as planned for staking
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10-13-2019 , 08:59 PM


3.9k in and 7.1k out - not quite over yet but main slates are already over and seems like chargers defense is really only major ownership left in the field (and I got a decent amount of it) so it's unlikely to swing more than a few hundred

brings season nfl tally to roughly 25k invested and 30k cashed

was lucky to get a few $109 h2hs, literally first time all season I got action over like $5, this was helpful because my cash lines were in general pretty bad this slate and just barely exceeded break even point - as you can see, i just barely hung on in these

https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...11396/97465356
https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...08089/97516044

this was not a good week for sharps in general, here killab didn't even manage 90 points and last year he was by far the best cash game player on yahoo, it was pretty embarassing his cash line on the main slate beat mine like 13/17 weeks and he finished 2nd in the yahoo cup, I've finished top 10 and top 500 several times but last year dude was just unstoppable in cash games at yahoo https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...16261/97516333

of the sharps only hoop2410 barely exceeded my line and bric75 seems to be the only other guy not to take a bath this week as the cash line is a bunch of randos and the bottom half is a who's who of dfs cash games https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...37654/97208309

I didn't have any deep finishes in the really big and top heavy gpps but did win a few with just a few thousand entries - however it's yahoo so it's comparatively flat payout structures so main profit on the slate came from a bunch of lines that went about 5x to 10x in returns like this


i normally don't do such a heavy game stack but made an exception this week for this one and it seemed to pan out - really kicking myself for not embracing the narrative and taking hooper in more of these stacks (at basically same price as Kelce - puke) and oddly using cook a lot in these ari/atl stacks but a win is a win - definitely making strides at gpp and been working on my own optimizer to help better construct 150x mme for yahoo's new mme offering, hopefully next week they'll finally onboard csv importing so I can actually do 150x lines without manually entering (did that earlier when there was a silly amount of overlay and since been doing about 30-50x)
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10-21-2019 , 02:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
dfs was terrible, i was all over david johnson - monitoring everything and decided to go there heavily in cash, same with kyler who was underpriced to the point of 60% ownership in cash games

fortunately had a lot of dede/waller/marvin jones as one offs so in the rare occasions i didn't have them matched with dumpster fire players it was a nice 7x or 8x return so the evening was partially salvaged - was *this close to playing marvin jones in cash, which would have made it a massively profitable night but instead went with mike williams... my model loved marvin but looking at the data myself, I couldn't figure out why and overuled it, would probably do it again as well, not so much because you can't predict 3 TD games so much as target volume, which Jones has not had much of

meanwhile am up several thousand in hockey and soccer, which are my two specialty sports but have never been able to get much volume, people are regularly booking my $109 and $270 h2hs in hockey and $109/$50/$25 10/6 mans are filling regularly so able to get in a massive amount of volume this year - possible it's just standard early season cash infusion and it'll drop out once they go busto but we shall see able to regularly get 2k rolling on a hockey slate and 500 in a soccer one whereas last year it was more like $200 and $50 respectively so not sure if yahoo just getting more popular or the economy is doing better

i got some jamison crowder in the week long slates but it's unlikely to make much difference and that game in general has pretty low ownership in week long games

in total 30k in and 33k out for the year
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10-28-2019 , 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
dfs was brutal... with the 1pm games finished and I had one line with three guys yet to play that was 1st or 2nd in most gpps, let's just say i'll forever hate tevin coleman... and got dropped down to top 20ish - and like poker, it's all about those final tables for payout laddering

ended up nearly breaking even on the day but that's due to having good nights in basketball and hockey, for football put in 4.2k and got out 3.6k



made some big mistakes, my model loved both kupp and edelman and gave them in the optimal lineup for cash game but i overuled kupp because he only played 60% snaps last game and his target share has been trending downward (model tends to ignore this stuff as noise so if there has been a change in dynamics it's slow to respond) and also took edelman out due to wind factor and they both smashed

had i just button clicked and didn't get cute with coaching recency and weather it would have been a smash week
getting closer to that 4% promised land now

34k in and 35k out but still on a slight profit

luckily, my nhl/soccer/nba are doing well in the meantime
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11-04-2019 , 08:08 AM
Week 9 update

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
DFS was wild, crowder was my highest owned guy so for first few hours was up over 50k, then other teams caught up but has a ton of lockett so then went way back up and then dropped down to just barely profiting as Metcalf and Wilson racked up the points in OT and closed the action with a TD

this is only NFL, no hockey/NBA action that day

My cash lines were fantastic and went undefeated in a couple dozen h2hs but it's crazy how literally can't get any action over $5 and meanwhile get at least $500 in NHL h2hs nightly

Looking back I'm definitely a dog in gpp thus far on the season and would be more profitable if I just stuck to my cash line and single entry grind but because I think the long term viability in DFS in tourney play (as demonstrated by my inability to get h2h action in NFL) I'm going to stick with it for now since still +EV overall it maybe just give up other sports except for NHL, which is something I've really improved upon dramatically since making some breakthroughs in my projection model last year

Here's my undefeated main slate cash line, which was nice but also underscores the losses that came in gpp

38k in and 39k out... Not nearly as good as last year and unlikely to get easier with h2hs since the dumb money probably mostly broke by this point in the year
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11-04-2019 , 04:10 PM
Once NFL season ends I'll get back on working on my golf model, which was effective last year but still needs some work as basically only break even in golf now despite that it's not very analytical and thus very soft

They haven't been offering up much for golf so far this year so been largely ignoring it but was like 96th percentile last year IIRC

Something nice any Yahoo is they let you know exactly where you're at by comparing your lineups vs the field

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