Quote:
Originally Posted by Kristy
I defer to the more economic-minded types with this sincere question...
What would happen if the military significantly downsized? Seems like an awful lot of service men and women, and American military suppliers would be out of work, which feels like it would have some pretty dramatic effects on the US across the board?
Could you pull back militarily without causing some unintended consequence like ...idk... a depression OS?
We're (USA#1) is still not at full capacity from 2008. Since the FED still has interest rates very low they would have a hard (impossible) time offsetting the reduction in GDP that would result from in a reduction in government fiscal expenditures like the military. So, yes now is not a good time for reduction in military spending. A couple caveats:
a) If fiscal expenditures in the military were to be transitioned to expenditures in another area seamlessly; then reduction in military expenditures would not cause reduction in net output. This would of course be a practical impossibility due to labor market rigidity.
b) A good time to reduce military spending would be on or near the peak of expansionary period. Of course this is also the time when it would be good to reduce national debt/deficit which also seems incredibly unlikely to happen for political reasons.
ETA: Suppliers might be OK in the near term because of foreign sales & long term contracts with DoD. The near term danger for suppliers (and the US Economy in general) I would suspect is Republican intransigence wrt the debt ceiling.
Last edited by allinontheturn; 10-13-2015 at 02:08 PM.