Quote:
Originally Posted by allinontheturn
It was only a kiss, it was only a kiss.
PS. You should do a state by state analysis of the 2012 election.
Here's what I did in the model where the histogram came from. If anything, I was pessimistic about President Obama's chances in a lot of these places.
Obama lock: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT - 159 Electoral Votes.
Probably Obama: CO, ME, MD, MA, MI, NM, WA, WI - 77 EVs
Tossup: AZ, FL, IA, NV, NH, OH, PA, VA - 107 EVs
Probably Romney: NC - 15 EVs
Romney lock: AL, AK, AR, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY - 180 EVs
So that's 236 for Obama and 195 for Romney. Obama just needs to find 44 EVs in the eight tossup states to win the thing. He's got smallish leads over Romney in at least six of those states.
I'd spitball his chance to win the thing at about 65%.
This all assumes that the GOP nominates Romney. If they nominate someone else, Obama wafflecrushes again.