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Originally Posted by Mrmusicrecorder
1,000,000,000+ oz of investment grade silver bullion
3,000,000,000+ oz of investment grade gold bullion
The natural ratio of silver to gold in the Earth is 12:1, silver is mined roughly 8:1 against gold.
Economic value is not about absolute rarity:
How did the Marginal Revolution solve the diamond/water paradox? by Murray Rothbard
Its about the satisfaction of subective ends
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Let us say two men want to make a trade. One man offers water, the other diamonds. The water seller has a reservoir of 1,000 gallons of water. Let us say the diamond seller offers a 1-carat diamond for 100 gallons of water. Would the water seller make the trade? Let's say he would. "That disproves the use-value theory of value!" the Smithian cost-of-production value theorist would insist, "Water is more useful than diamonds!" However, the question is not whether water-in-general or diamonds-in-general are more useful. The insight of Menger's marginalism is that it is necessary to compare the discrete quantities: one 1-carat diamond vs. 100 gallons of water.
Let's say the water seller plans on using his current water supply over the course of a month, after which his supply will be replenished from some unknown and unimportant source. Were he to keep the whole 1,000 gallons, he would apply his supply in the following manner:
100 gallons for drinking water for his family and guests
500 gallons for cleaning water
300 gallons for watering the plants on his estate
100 gallons for water sports
According to the law discussed in the previous post, were he to give up 100 gallons for the diamond, he would give up the least important satisfaction supplied by that particular quantity of water. Let's say the fun of playing water sports is the least important satisfaction. And let's say the satisfaction he would gain from the diamond is the pleasure of seeing it ornament his wife's hand. The material question is not even "which is more important 100 gallons of water or a 1-carat diamond", because these are just means to ends of satisfaction. The end of satisfaction imputes value to the means of the good. What most economic historians don't recognize is that it was not Menger's marginalism that was his most important contribution to value theory; it was his subjectivism, the recognition that it is the ends, the satisfactions, which must be compared. What Menger really inaugurated was a Subjectivist Revolution. The truly material question in the hypothetical scenario is "which is more important, the fun of a month of water sports, or the pleasure of seeing a beautiful sparkle on his wife's hand until death parted them?" It is no paradox that most men would choose the latter.
A Mengerian Solution to the Diamond-Water Paradox
a rarity example (yes there is a G intervention, involved but its illustrative nonetheless)
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Think of how much more rare an ounce of silver is than a $100 bill. There are roughly 8 billion US$100 bills in the world, yet only 1 billion ounces of silver. Yet each bill is currently worth 7 times as much as an ounce of silver. That is a discrepancy of 56 times in comparative rarity. And that only counts physical paper money. This is just an example of how little rarity matters.
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[QUOTE=Mrmusicrecorder;20063526]June 16th, the COMEX reported total silver inventories of 119.5 million ounces. June 30, total inventories had fallen to 113.56 million ounces, a 5.94 million ounce (4.97%) decline.
SLV has scaled down inventory also in the midst of a price increase.
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A trend that has appeared with respect to both metals. For example:
Adrian Douglas: Alarming trend in Comex gold and silver inventory data
Adrian Douglas: How Soon Will COMEX Gold Dealer Inventories Be Exhausted?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrmusicrecorder
Perhaps you misunderstood it or possibly missed this part:
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Allow me to play the devil's advocate (not that FOA is the devil, it's just a saying!) for a few minutes. You mentioned the relative rarity of silver to gold. I can agree that this is true, since most of the silver has been used up by industry while most of the gold ever mined is still with us. Let's agree that there are about 1 billion ounces of silver and 5 billion ounces of gold in the world. Well rarity only comes into play with price when supply and demand are the driving factors. Rarity is a measure of supply.
The silver market being much smaller in dollar terms to the gold market, is more volatile. So the argument goes that an influx of dollars will drive up the price of silver much faster than the price of gold. But the way the market is set up right now is with both metals trading as a commodity, not as a money or a wealth reserve. Commodity markets are driven by supply and demand. But from a weight perspective, there is more silver available on the markets at the current prices. This speaks to a much higher monetary demand for gold than for silver, because much more gold is held tightly as a wealth reserve by the really big money, including Central Banks.
Look at metal available in the Comex warehouse. 3 million ounces of gold available, 70 million ounces of silver available. Go to your coin store. Hundred ounce bars of silver may be available. How many hundred ounce bars of gold does he have? So the fact that there is less silver in the world than gold in terms of weight really doesn't mean a whole lot when it comes to monetary demand which is far greater than industrial demand.
As long as the current system is functioning, and Comex is functioning, it is possible that we could see a great run up in the price of silver on a commodity to commodity basis with gold. This is what happened in the early 80's, and that is the main reason it is expected to happen again. But once the system falls apart, the monetary demand will completely overwhelm the industrial demand. And the big money wants gold. This includes oil producers in the Middle East, China with large stash of savings, Russia, all the Central Banks except for maybe the BOE (thanks Brown!) and the super rich private investors as well. Ask yourself why the ratio has widened over the last year as the system has been collapsing. Last year when gold was in the low 900's, silver was $17 an ounce.
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