+1

similar: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/11...a#post17810466

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Dow/Gold ratio
link

whack back

David Rosenberg Part 2: "Gold Is Increasingly Being Viewed As A Currency Of Its Own"

FWIW, Stewart Dougherty has argued that the inverse price relationship between the dollar and gold isn't what it used to be.

Oh noes gold's a bubble!

Or maybe not (from 12/09)

As multiples of the baselines, those four other peaks aren't all that dissimilar.

Slopes imo.

That's because they're all bubbles?

Yeah. And to think that there are otherwise smart people who think that gold is in a bubble right now...

Gold Commercial Short Positions Hit All Time High, As Gold Spike Protection Team Keeps Very Busy

What are the scales of that chart? What am I actually looking at?

I believe they are all scaled to match the tops to indicate the rather steep ascents associated with popularly recognized "bubbles" of the past decade. I think its suggesting that bubble activity is associated with rather steep price ascensions, and further that a similar such ascension has not recently been seen in gold.

http://www.minyanville.com/businessm.../2009/id/25921
http://www.minyanville.com/businessm.../2009/id/25911

Each line corresponds to the like-colored numbers on the sides. Like JR said they are made to be proportional to show the nature of a bubble. Although I wish they had set it so that gold $1250 was at the same height of the rest of the peaks.

Ok I need some help reading this one. Do the red bars represent the total number of positions on gold held by commercial entities, and the blue line represents how many of those are short positions?

Or do the red bars represent total number of positions on gold (held by anyone), and the blue line is how many of those are commercial shorts?

halp!

Red bars = net position (i.e. total longs - total shorts), use left hand scale (its a negative number on the left indicating net commercial interest is short).

Black and blue line = total shorts, use right hand scale (its a positive number).

Obviously there are net long non-commercial investors to balance this out. Big point being the commercials are naked shorting, as they don't have the metal to be net this short.

I'm having a hard time reading those axis graphs.... can anyone tell me what the Y axis is?

The X axis looks like 1998 to present?

But what is that Y one? Are they not all different scales? Can't one make the gold "bubble" look just as bad as the others by simply changing the gold's Y-axis (stretching it out a bit)?

In other words, if they're all on different Y-scales, can't you make the graph look how you want it to?

Darn... someone already asked this it seems

+1

Wow, good find with the graph.

Do these guys have to cover if they're the TBTF banks though? Aren't they sort of going to be allowed to keep their short positions? I've always thought banks can basically decide when to have margin calls on their client's positions, but if this position is being taken by a big bank itself then can they simply "not call it in"?

For a laymen like myself though, I can certainly appreciate the "wow" of having gold hit an all-time high in spite of all this net-short action. Cool stuff.

ponder:

Will the other side of the trade (the long) demand delivery?

Will the Comex/LBMA other exchanges alter rules to allow/require paper settlement (i.e. cash premiums or settlement with shares in GLD/SLV) in soem/many contracts? The Comex has already altered rules, like allowing settlement in GLD/SLV in efp transactions (remember, JPM is custodian for SLV and HSBC the custodian for GLD) and has also altered rules to make it harder (more expensive and/or time consuming) to take delivery.

Are big short holders offering cash premiums over the contract value to long holders to settle without demanding delivery? Are these cash premiums funded in part by ZIRP and other liquidity measures?

Have and/or will central banks lease gold at below market rates to big banks who get stuck net naked short (a rumored explanation for brown's bottom) and can't deliver?

Are these "paper" markets in any way reflective of the real demand/ availability for physical bullion at these price levels?

Interesting to compare price movements for PHYS to GLD, COMEX & spot.

Tech bubble: 50% rise/year
Housing bubble: 55% rise/year
China bubble: 245% rise/year
Crude bubble: 32% rise/year (76% in the last 1.5 years)

Gold "bubble": 18% rise/year

But, yeah, the graph is not very enlightening.

lol i go to the bank today to do my wire to buy gold and the representative there who was helping me with my wire asks me some basic questions about where the moneys going etc and discovers that the wire is for the purchase of gold. She then suggests to me that I consider looking into investing with their bank as they've got great specials going and offering 3% interest on savings accounts. she also pointed out to me that buying so much money worth of jewelry in these times might not be in my best interest. Thanks!

Those premiums aren't likely to decrease anytime soon either.


Nice, thx for sharing.

Last week I had to get a cashier's check for my purchase. Got the same basic questions. When the teller figured out I was buying gold..."Wow, is your wife OK with you spending this much money on it?"

Labour theory of value revival tour?