https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THAaIZmxfNA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sZdXJbK554
money supply m2
1960-1970 301.5 592.0 96% increase
1970-1980 592.0 1486 153% increase
1980-1990 1486 3172 112% increase
1990-2000 3172 4649 47% increase
2000-2010 4649 8439 82% increase
2015-7-01 12006 on pace for greater than 80% decade gain.
- The money supply is a lot more complex. Japan and China hold a lot of reserves and debt and much of the worlds debt is denominated in U.S. dollars. Almost anything than can be made in another country is, not based on competitive advantage, but due to lower wages.
+ Banks can create money by taking money out of deposits and loaning it out. Those loans end up at another bank as deposits or m1/m2. The last 5 years consumer and mortgage debt is down on a relative basis. Thus there is less money on a relative basis. During the great depression money supply dropped by 1/3, the fed did not allow this to happen this time.
+ The countries population growth rate is slowing thus should put more pressure on inflation.
+ As bond rates drop it is actually bullish for bonds as the capital gains of the bonds make up for the low interest. Thus inflows continue. Bonds have not had a rise which imho keeps inflation low. People will sell bonds if they believe they do not earn more than inflation. Although the national debt has risen, the interest payments might have actually dropped.
+ With high unemployment there is low pressure to increase wages. Changes in average wages are should approximate inflation with a lead or lag. Labor force participation rate is at a 35 year low.
+ money velocity is at a 60 year+ low 1.5. Maybe due to more money overseas. This may be due to uncertainty and low bond and savings returns resulting in the people saving more money instead of spending.
In summary there are a lot of variables (even more than listed above) and there might even be a 10-20 year lag. Everyone including Ron Paul are just guessing.
Last edited by steelhouse; 09-02-2015 at 01:55 AM.