Quote:
Originally Posted by Janabis
1. You stated that there was 10% inflation in the first scenario, yet your numbers indicate that nothing has inflated. There is no difference in inflation between these two. You just randomly subtracted $10 from the first one's profits and then blamed it on inflation.
2. You're also needlessly complicating things. The only numbers relevant to this discussion are the initial investment, the return, and the inflation rate. What it comes down to is that with inflation, the initial investment becomes cheaper and less consequential over time, allowing for greater real returns. With deflation your initial investment becomes larger and larger over time, diminishing the real return of the enterprise.
1. No I picked two companies, with the same revenues under inflationary and deflationary environments. I took 10% off the profits of one since they had $100 in cash on the books in which they would lose $10 to inflation. On a side note, a company would gain some value back with the debt they have on the books. But, that should already be factored in by the banks.
2.
Company A
Initial Investment $10000 (Year 2015)
Profit Year 1 $1000
Profit Year 2 $1100
Profit Year 3 $1210
Purchasing Power Year 1 ($2015) $1000
Purchasing Power Year 2 ($2015) $1000
Purchasing Power Year 3 ($2015) $1000
Company B
Initial Investment $10000 (Year 2015)
Profit Year 1 $1000
Profit Year 2 $900
Profit Year 3 $810
Purchasing Power Year 1 ($2015) $1000
Purchasing Power Year 2 ($2015) $1000
Purchasing Power Year 3 ($2015) $1000
So you will probably say look at B you won't get back the initial investment. The thing is the deflation rate is unsustainable. But you have to consider other things. In Scenerio B, saving cash will only invest when the investment returns are greater than the savings return: currency deflation rate <= investment return. But you don't consider that currency can be an investment too, and is just as real as a business investment. When you gain cash, you will also gain more expensive items you can purchase.
I heard Alan Grayson, wanting to take the money banks have on reserve at the Federal Reserve and loaning it out. He does not realize the only reason the money is there is because they are forced to keep it there as part of fractional reserve lending. Nobody wants to hold cash in an inflationary system. However, the loans and investments made are not necessarily good for the people. It may be good for the government, banks, and those with access to credit,, but the people that worked and earned the money would be better off in a deflationary environment.
If you do all the math you will find, inflation acts as a tax, while deflation acts as a stimulus.