Quote:
Originally Posted by mttpdx
Betting $250 on a $210 pot seems like heÂ’s trying to protect his hand against a draw.
Button is not betting $250 into a $210 pot. He's raising a $90 bet into a $120 pot to $250.
If you want to think about it that way, you have to put button's call in first. So after his call the pot is $300 and he's betting $160 into it.
After this raise, if hero folded and BB folded, the pot would be $460 and it would be $160 to the CO to call.
It's not a particularly big raise.
We don't know stack sizes of anyone other than hero. If they're not that much bigger than hero's stack size, I guess he doesn't have to make or shouldn't make a large raise since there isn't much play left afterward.
I don't know about the rest of your analysis that I didn't quote either. Button could have 99 or 88 or certain draws and call a shove with them (really any draw he raised with will call hero's shove since he'll be getting almost 2.5 to 1 pot odds, but he's probably more likely to have raised with 12+ "out" draws); he doesn't always have a straight when he calls a shove from hero here (not impossible he could even have a few combos of two pair). And if hero just calls and BB and CO both fold, then on the turn the pot will be $620 and hero will only have $420 left. Hero will be out of position. I feel like hero will basically have to open shove safe turns and unsafe turns will suck to play. Might as well shove on the flop and not give button a free card if he happens to have a draw.
And even against a straight, hero has like 33% equity.
The first post I made in this thread like a month ago, I think I also didn't realize hero was short when I said "
I probably just jam now I guess." Now that I realize hero started the hand with only 70 big blinds, I don't think any other play is really much of an option.
Last edited by Lego05; 11-05-2020 at 02:47 AM.