I figure this is a pretty standard cooler but was pretty tilting after a long night of grinding.

5/10 NL. Hero and villain both roughly $4k effective.

Two limps, hero raises TdTs to 50 OTB. Villain (Good, capable 25yr old reg), calls in SB, one limper calls.

Flop (160): QT2hh. Bingo. Checks to hero who bets 90 (Def should size up?), V calls.

Turn (340): QT2hh9. V leads 250(?) Alarm bells going off. I contemplate raising but don't want to call a jam here so deep. Hero flats and off to a river.

River (840): QT2hh95. V checks. H decides to polarize here and bets 1000. Villain thinks for a minute and makes it 2400. Hero throws up and goes into the tank.

Can we ever bet/fold a set here on the river?

With that sizing raise on the river and overall play. My guts probably tell me to fold...How come you pole that river bet? Obviously for values, but what ranges are you targeting villian?

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bigger otf, turn fine.

bigger pre.

I wouldn't overbet otr. ap i'd probably fold, it's hard to see what he's repping but this is hardly a bluff when you overbet and he raises. He "shouldn't" have KJo here; should be mainly 3b or fold but who knows maybe he's bored.

Seems like a way someone might get tricky with KJ

When you polarize, get raised and dont know what to do, you probably shouldnt have polarized in the first place.




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Huh^ what’s that supposed to mean^
His line is mostly standard/ he goes for slight overbet which is completely fine and good and probably highest ev sizing.
Vs the check raise it’s a gross spot and pio will probably tell you to call
I doubt your opponent is finding bluffs for this line nearly enough for me to Be worried about defending @ equilibrium so I’m fine with finding an exploitative fold.

Pre is too small with two limpers. Go 75-90.

OTR you forgot about the alarm bells going off on the turn. I think you have to bet the river, but I'd target the pair+straight draw type hands and bet ~$250.

You bet a polarizing over bet on the river and get raised. This is the only way you can fold. That being said, I would have just gone for normal value and called the credit. This isn't the spot to get fancy.

Betting like less than 1/3 pot with this hand vs this line is just silly cmon

Hes not playing against a solver.


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Because last I checked Snowie or Pio, neither of them solves for or advocates having a turn leading range on this board. So I'm pretty sure it hasn't solved this spot.

Why are we betting large? Can you explain why that's "optimal" outside of what you think maybe a solver would say (in a spot, that's already clearly in exploitative world)?

We block a lot of two pair hands 109, Q10 and the flush draw missed (Does he have many FD/s?). What hand is calling a large bet here on the river, that doesn't beat us?

His range for calling in the SB, if he's capable, is VERY narrow. KQoff, 66-99, KJ off, maybe AJ off, and some of the random selected suited connectors? Except we again block 109, 10J, etc...

???? tell me again why betting large on this river is optimal ???

His overbet is not completely fine, or good.

I think betting turn as vill is fine as this turn goes check check very often.

you arent going to win this hand from 4th street often if this becomes a big pot. sounds crazy but you can consider folding to his 4th st. bet. and since you called it checking back on the river. all based on the big stack sizes.

Agreed. Wouldn't betting $500 instead of $1000 on the river accomplish the same goals?

Lol are you really advocating folding turn when OP has 22% equity in the very worst case?

hahahah

no because 1000>500

I would not overbet the river here. As played, I think I'd call his raise though and hope he's doing something fancy with a J blocker. You'll probably lose, but you're getting 24.8% on a call. If he has KJs here, that is only 4 combos. It only takes a bit more than 1 combo of a fancy play to call. If he ever has KJo here, then that means he probably over values under sets because KJo should be folded preflop.

I think another thing to consider is the likelihood your opponent takes a different line with KJ. Perhaps check/raising turn and leading river. Also, after leading the turn people tend to lead the river as well. Most importantly, I think I'd jam in opponent's shoes after facing an overbet wouldn't you?

What if your opponent feels you are bluffing the river, but is afraid your bluffing hand might still be stronger than his hand. He may get creative. There is also the possibility he thinks 99 is good.

This is a pretty simple explanation for Wby you bet this size otr

River sizing is fine

Turn lead from him is weird cause he should only have 4 combos of KJs

I guess I'm calling river given price. Really weird line from villain. Agreed he's probably not bluffing enough and maybe this river raise is only KJ. Whatever then, fold.

The river sizing is really weird here in this specific hand.

Villain is like never bluffing here OTR as played imo

You should have to donate something or give up your red name for just how bad this advice is, wtf. You need an absurd read to justify the times you incinerate value. You'd need a similar read in order to justify a b/c.

river is a bet/decide vs very good players, bomb/fold vs your standard passives. b/c vs the latter is trainwreck, but I think it's still better than checking.

You are totally right..it does sound crazy. I mean I guess it doesn't sound crazy to "consider" anything. I would consider folding and raising the turn for about 1 millisecond before I called.

Hey, an important thing that should be going through your head is "does my opponent think I can have KJ here?"

If no, lean toward calling. If yes, lean toward folding... but then call anyway cuz **** it.

If somehow we could see villains cards and we saw he held KJ, should we call the turn?

Yes, if the board pairs we can extract value. If a heart falls we can jam and get folds.