lol, your last post is bad strategy and your hand is only as good as it is compared to your opponents hand. and you dont have to lose a lot just because a set gets beat. some times you lose almost nothing.

the giant pots and even just the big ones that you lose because of a mistake that you dont realize or even ever realize really add up over your lifetime. maybe much more than your total bankroll does.

but im done with this thread so thanks everyone that posted whether i agree or you agree with anything or not. all discussion adds.

Honestly, lots of misguided thinking on both sides of this debate in my opinion.

Villain knows you don't have KJ here. You're at the very top of your range.

This is a bluff from the villain a lot of the time. A value raise from worse some of the time.

You're getting almost exactly 2:1 odds to call. Villain must have spent a portion of his 1 minute calculating out the bet to hit that ratio.

IMO i'd react based on my table image. If hero is seen as a good, careful player, then call.
If hero is seen as weak and/or calling station, then fold.

fine I’ll bite. Pio analysis forthcoming

So here we go. Some of it is kind of sloppy. Will rerun the sim and double check this stuff.
Here’s what’s going on preflop
I gave ip all of the kjs and about half of the kjo combos. Which is fair I think- range to raise 2 limpers should be pretty tight and strong but not like super nitty vs the limpers strat
For oop - took out most of the mandatory 3bs and left him with a bunch of broadways and suited stuff/all the pairs


But I think this pf ranges is basically what’s going on.
On the flop: I set oop for pure check on the flop, and gave hero - 33% 50% 70% and 100%
Main takeaway was that the 1/3 size gets used way more often and looks like our main bet size otf- excuse the j4 I had my mouse hovering over

Oop calls and 9 peels off. So it actually does look like the kj is allowed to lead but mixes betting and checking with checking being slightly higher frequency than donk. Makes sense.


Pocket 10s is a 0% fold and actually raises a small frequency.


So it turns out that the big bet on the river really isn’t a thing and we want to just go ahead and bet 1/3 pot. Note the ev difference of bet vs check. Check being by far the lowest ev option.



Also note the frequencies on the river. Checking behind is definitely not a thing here

Now vs the check raise it’s a very low ev spot and we basically are doing our best to pick the best of a bunch of -ev spots. That being said looks like we mostly just sigh and flick it in




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Disclaimers. I’m not an expert level pio user but have a decent idea about what I’m doing. I try to look at these sims in a general sense and figure out an easy way for me to apply what I’ve leaned about this spot next time it comes up. Biggest takeaways is that the big bet isn’t a thing mostly I guess due to the fact that we don’t really have much of a range advantage
Checking back otr and folding on the turn just isn’t happening
In some of these spots like vs the river check raise when we are mixing call and fold you can make some exploits like hey I’ll start overfolding kj because this dude is definitely not finding enough bluffs. But when you start deviating super hard from gto like for example deciding to check ttt otr, or fold ttt ott then it’s just bad poker.

it is?

Yes I see bluffs in this kind of situation regularly.

It happens when a thinking villain has sniffed out some sense of weakness. In this case the hero's river bet is adventurous.

A lot of factors go into the +/- column, but the most important is how Hero is perceived.

I'm not saying this is an easy call or necessarily a +EV call.

Hero beat.

IME this is almost never a bluff. Shrug.

GL all.

Countering this with

This and the subsequent pictures just shows your fundamental misunderstanding of the game imo. I wish you the best though.

If the thread didn't say "standard cooler" there is zero chance that ppl have this level of confidence in their nittiness.

Turn fold is atrocious, it's even worse 400bb deep, so I have no idea wtf you are talking about Ray. Checking river without an insane read is ridiculous. if you are giving him the credit for being able to crai river for value, you should give the same credit for overvaluing on a super wet turn and trying to bluff catch riv. ultimately this is all over thinking and why river is a b/decide.

Wow this post really tilts me. Why does it demonstrate a fundamental misunderstanding? I’m so curious
I have a few assumptions about what I think you mean, that it’s live poker and you have to “play the player” or dude it’s live poker gto means nothing. If that’s your argument than we’ll have to agree to disagree
Way I look at it, is that the gto approximations from piosolver of these spots that literally are the fundamentals of the game. There’s a good sauce video on run itonce about the hierarchy of decision making he has at the table.
It goes something like
1. How does this spot work fundamentally/ what’s the gto response and how do I maximize my ranges ev
2. How do I think the population/my opponent plays this spot
3. How can I deviate from gto in order to exploit the way my opponent in this part of the game tree

Point is- if you don’t know how the heck the spot works fundamentally, you really don’t know how to properly exploit. Kind of like a kid trying to do behind the back passes when he can’t even make a layup.
For example. Ray saying guys this hands looks dicey on 4th street we should consider folding ott- we look at the results and it says hey this is a 100% call and here’s the ev difference between call and fold. I don’t really know how you can argue with that.
Or anyone itt who said hey let’s check back the river -
Or me early on in the hand when I said yeah betting pot on the river is probably the best sizing.
Then I look at it in pio and it says actually your 1k bet makes less $ than the other sizings and it doesn’t balance your full range very well you should be betting 1/3 pot instead.
There’s been plenty of times I think I know what’s going on with a hand and then after I actually analyze it I realize I had no idea wtf I was doing. I’d honestly recommend you spend 300$ on the software and start using it to analyze some hands you play where you were like uhhh I really don’t know what was happening there. It helped my game for sure.

I appreciate the effort but you forgot flop was 3 ways so none of this applies

Also the oop range is going to be way different than the range you gave oop. He just called the SB after BTN raised 2 limpers. I don't know exactly what that range is but I don't think it "should" look like that.

Listen man I also use an approach to poker that focuses on theory fundamentals almost exactly as you described in your other post wrt to exploitative play. But you have to know the limitations of software such as solvers.

Well yea again this sim isn’t perfect - that’s one of issues with live poker it’s that these multi way spots are tough to solve. But I disagree with the statement that none of this applies. We can get some ideas about what our sizings should look like on this board texture as well as what three 10s should be doing vs this line.
It seems pretty clear cut that folding the turn is out of the question as well as is checking behind on the river. We also found out that the big bet really isn’t a thing on this river.
At this point it’s the best resource we have for evaluating a hand- tell me a better way and I’m all ears lol

The flop being 3 way drastically changes ranges and sizings. Drawing any conclusions from solving the spot HU and applying it seems foolish to me. Its a completely different spot HU

I was trying to figure out what about this thread was haunting me so much. Then it came to me. Why are we spending so much time talking about getting stacks in? Nobody ever said they wanted to raise turn and call it off. Or call turn and bet call it off on the river. The stacks are so deep even as played hero wasn't tested for all his chips. The fact of the matter is that what you are saying is true to an extent. People love to talk about "putting a lot of pressure" on their opponents deep but when 800bb pots develop someone has the nuts. But, on the turn we are facing a 25bb bet and we have middle set. This is just a spot where experience and having played a lot of hands will tell you the same thing that the solvers tell you. Raising sucks, folding sucks worse, and considering there is only one other option that is the one we choose. The river we try and make the best decision we can but nobody is talking about playing for 400bb.

+1 to what Rich Gangi is saying

I find it interesting that nearly everyone in this thread from 12 years ago flamed Ray hard for suggesting that one fold second set against certain opponents....but he was right. Yeah, "lulz that might as well have been 100 years ago" but Ray has been playing deep stack no limit for longer than nearly anyone on this board, was right 12 years ago, and is probably right this time too. Seems quite counterproductive and disrespectful to insult one of the OGs by essentially saying "lmao gtfo you old ***** nit" without even explaining your thought process. Borg, you're usually a solid contributer, but you're just being a straight up douche/troll in this thread.

The old thread is worth a read just for the "Jack Jackerson" comment, one of my all-time favorites on 2p2, and also for a trip down memory lane to peak 2p2/poker boom with the posts by so many 2p2 legends like durrr, mdma, cero_z, strassa, fsuplayer, haralabos, whitelime, Ray, rbk, el diablo, etc.

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1

This is paraphrasing this epic post from an epic thread years ago. Alex Jacob came in and owned everyone, making a case against a "game theoretic approach" years before GTO poker was a thing. Anyone who caught this guy's run on jeopardy knows he is an extremely bright person; he was way ahead of his time here, and what he wrote still applies today.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/5...8/#post1388302

Rich, it seems like we have similar tastes in classic threads

here's the hand from that thread:

and here's rays response:

what an absolute legend of old school poker. telling ppl to fold middle set 100bb deep on a wet board to one bet, or sometimes calling and hoping the flush/straight comes to slow the betting down. hoping the draws get there when you have a set is something I never even considered.

YES! What a great thread. Sadly, those days are long gone.....

GL all.

Best HSNL threads

Nice of you guys to come in and support Ray here. He is a legend and deserves respect. We appreciate him stopping by and taking part in the discussion and I agree a few posters could have been a little more gentle in the way they approached his posts. That said, this is an internet forum and when something gets said that is borderline absurd, there is going to be trolling even when it comes from the keyboard of a red guy. Also, finding an archived hand where Ray was correct but made largely results oriented advice, much like what happened in this thread, will do very little to change the minds of those that disagree.

I love that this is chulupabatman's first and only post on this site.

He posts a fairly standard cooler spot, and asks if he can ever bet fold the river.....3 pages later..... lol

What about this is standard WBF?

River c/r is rarely a bluff ap in this spot and always the nut unless v is special. The fact that you are very deep makes this even more likely to be the case.

The river sizing could be fine. This is the type of spot where a lot of V's will be calling any bet size, 500-psbish with a similar range of hands live so its probably is fine.

Go back and construct a realistic calling range of a capable reg from the SB. Then re think through the hand.

You should only really be polarizing when you have a range advantage. He has the nuts just as often as you do here.

Just because you have a set doesn't mean "wow this is my opportunity to win a big pot"

I'd bet small and wide on the river with my two pair plus. By polarizing you can only bet your nuts and sets and probably have to fold your sets and not even really have that many bluffs. When we are deeper and try to "thin value" a set, we are in reality bluffing that we have a straight, and the set is just a weird triple range merge.

At shorter stacks this is fine because any raise is a jam and usually when WE polarize for large sizes we ARE all in. Being this deep requires us to be more careful

Check the river or bet small