Let me just say that the cutoff in this hand is a GTO-based player and extremely good.

5/5, Hero BTN straddle 10, 9d6d

Stack sizes:
SB (fish) 1,200
BB (Tight player) 900
CO (villian) 4,000
BTN (Hero) 2,800

SB limps, BB folds, CO makes it 45, Hero calls, SB folds

Flop (100) Jd7c2d

CO bets 55, Hero calls

Turn (210) Js

CO bets 160, hero raises to 525, CO calls

River (1,260) 5d


CO checks, Hero bets 400, CO SHOVES for 1,650 more.

I picked this size on the river as I'm going to have a ton of value bets. My only bluffs are T9s and T8s, I will have all boats in my river bet range except 88 as well KJ, I'll also have many flush combos.

I'm wondering if a check is better here with a weak flush? Do we call or fold river here?

Looking back I like a larger turn raise, something around 625 to 700, a size to where he has to fold some of his nut flush draws

I think he is capable of reading my range here as many flushes and boats then shoving on me with weak JXs.

Fold pre fold turn fold river

Curious as to why you think I should fold pre getting 2 to 1 in position super deep and with a fish in the pot in the small blind?

I guess if I'm up against a very solid GTO-based player, I could just fold pre

SB in general should be playing a lot of limp/reraises in this spot as he should be mostly limping, if not entirely limping, every hand he wants to continue pre. Also, we're facing a 4.5x open so we're not getting that great of odds.

I guess if the sb never limp/re-raises (which is a big assumption) then calling becomes better.

agree with this.

if we have 96ss in preflop calling range, we’re also going to have tons of other trash to bluff river with. betting small w our wide value range allows V to stuff on us, turning basically everything but J7/77 into bluff catchers (J7s is exactly one combo given board texture, i’m not even sure we want to call 22 here or any flushes; 55 is out of range.)

As played with this sizing, you’re going to bet /fold a lot of hands OTR. 96ss is one of them

What trash are we bluffing river when taking this line in your opinion? Is it better to call our strong JX's on the river than it is to call our flushes here?

SB Almost only raises his premium holdings preflop, I wont make too big of assumptions, but I only saw 1 raise preflop from him with QQ in 8 hours. He was pretty loose passive. We are getting 2 to 1 on a call preflop here, as we have to call 35 to win 70 (45+10+10+5).

Definitely fold the turn and the river. Unless Villain knows that you like to make big folds, I think it is quite unlikely that he is turning a weak J into a bluff on the river. After all, he can't be certain that you won't check behind with good Js and crappy flushes (i.e., exactly the part of your range that he would be looking to make you fold with a river bluff).

I think you are going to see a lot of boats and the occasional Ad7d on the river here.

i would fold or 3bet pre, 69s is just a little too weak for me. 68s is probably too weak as well, 67s is my borderline, although i would still prefer a 3bet

ill chalk it up to a low frequency play and continue. flop i like a raise here, our hand is very weak in terms of SDV but makes a great bluff to fold out dominating draws, and we have good turns to pick up equity and barrel

ok flat call, another passive line, gonna delay the raise until turn, now we raise on the J. so we rep JJJ, he calls i guess repping JJJ as well, or a draw, or a boat.

on the riv u say we have only value bets of varying degree, so u pick a small size why is this? u just range bet 1/3 pot now? or do u still go larger with your boats? if u go larger with your boats to milk flushes and JJJ then i hope u can see the problem (now your 1/3 pot bet range is capped and u can get x/r bluffed into oblivion)

if u indeed 1/3 pot range bet i think thats very creative, and might be a good play. your other option is to split your range into a big bet and a check range. u could big bet your missed draws, boats, and nut flush, while checking a back the trip JJJ and baby flushies.

im not sure which strategy has the highest EV

I opted for a check on the flop, as I don't want my range to be capped at flush draws and sets, maybe T9s I could raise occasionally but villian can profitably fold all his hands except tippy top once a diamond turns or rivers.

I'll occasionally have an air ball on the turn like KT or QT with a diamond that floated the flop and blocks some of his JX hands, and strong flush draws that may continue against a raise.

On the river, I want to be able to extract value with my flushes and still be able to bet my bluffs. The more bluffs I have though, the more I want to choose a 2 sizing strategy with a large bet for polar sizing. The problem I have with that is we will never extract max from villian when we have 77 and J7s here, as villian will almost never shove river against us without blockers, since we have it or we don't. If we choose a small sizing with our flushes villian can jam on us knowing we are capped at the nut flush and put us in tough spots. My thinking and logic may be off but that was why I chose a sizing of 1/3 with 100% of my range. Plus I can extract value against KJ and QJ.

I do like the idea of checking baby flushes and weak Jack's though. I am also curious as to which is higher EV

EDIT: My brain is getting fried from playing all day, so sorry if that doesnt make a ton of sense. A lot of it was thinking out loud.

Fold pre/thread

Because 96dd loses money