Quote:
Originally Posted by DGAF
V surprised u r gonna 3bet that turn with these stacks.
More depth on that plz.
Well first of all I can unequivocally state that whenever he has 66, 33, 22, 86, 32, etc, that 3-betting the turn will result in you winning a significantly larger amount of money. This is even the case if alternatively you are calling and shoving the river to his bet (and expecting 100% of these hands to call). This is because the river frequently will complete a flush or one-card straight which will turn your hand from the 2nd nuts into a bluff-catcher. One which you might even incorrectly fold when he massively overbets the pot
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So that aspect of the EV equation (value versus worse value hands in his range) falls in favor of 3-betting turn. The other benefit of 3-betting is protection, both actual protection and range protection. His non-made hand range probably consists largely of flush draws, many of which have gutters to go with them, and we probably benefit more by getting calls from those hands on the turn than by inducing bluffs from them on the river. And pretty much if we 3-bet the turn we will be very unlikely to be bluffed out of the pot. Sure I guess he could donk the rest of his stack in on an ugly card, but he's probably just as likely to do that on a board pair as on a flush card when our 3-bet looks so much like a straight.
So the only bad news of 3-betting the turn as I see it is that we put more money in against 54. But this guy is a donk and it is hard to have one hand. IMO if you're so afraid of this outcome, you shouldn't be sitting with 17k. I think a 4-bet on the turn could contain other hands than the nut straight from the described player anyway, so I don't really see it as much of a negative. And your reads being more calibrated than my outside perspective, perhaps you could even make the fold in the case of that happening. Either way, against 54 you clearly would rather call, and its actually a pretty big disaster to have to fold our boat draw when we win his entire stack when we hit it and he has that hand. But again, IMO he infrequently has 54 so it seems to be not that major of a concern.