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Old 10-30-2014, 08:21 PM   #51
BenT07891
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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Originally Posted by The Muffin Man View Post
From a game theory perspective, you don't have to call very often when someone bets 3x pot. We get to the river with 4xdd and 79 at the very least, so it's not like we are never calling if we fold 88.

From an exploitative perspective, I just don't think calling without a straight is going to be profitable. From my experience, 3x pot on a 4 straight board is usually the nuts or at least a straight.
From a game theory perspective, we have to call at least 25% to make it so its unprofitable for him to bet 3x pot with ATC (any two cards).

The question is, if we are only calling this river bet with a straight, does that make up 25% of our range?

I think it could. I agree w/ most posters that this is probably a fold, but thats not taking into account the table talk.
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Old 10-31-2014, 01:04 AM   #52
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

I probably wouldn't have folded but NH.

Talking to players is obviously not unethical in any way and it's a huge part (or at least can be) of the live game. I'd be interested to hear in more of these threads how people observe and interpret physical tells as I feel it's one of the weaker points in my game.
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Old 10-31-2014, 01:58 AM   #53
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

I think DGAFs posts about talking during a hand are dead on
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Old 10-31-2014, 09:08 AM   #54
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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I'd like to hear other's thoughts- do recs/fish/whales delay c/r their draws like all the hotshots do these days?
As a rec player who plays in regular home games with whales, I've seen plenty of this, but it usually happens only when they are playing against tight/passive V's. Most are less likely to do it against a known pro, at least in my experience - UNLESS they are locked in a battle with said pro like you mention here.

As far as the issue of talking during the hand, that's no big deal. Go for it. We (rec players) don't mind when pros talk to us to try and get information. It's part of the challenge and competition, which is more important to us than the money. That being said, obvious angles are definitely not cool (like miscalling hands, hiding big chips etc) and I'll find another table if someone inserts that kind of crap into a game.

As far as the hand, I would have to begrudgingly call, based on the info that H was in a battle with this V, knowing that the V wants to beat me more than anything, which skews their range more towards a bluff.
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Old 11-05-2014, 01:22 AM   #55
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

i would fold pretty fast otr. i think by definition aggro rec players are fairly clickity. if they actually knew how to balance their aggression while playing as aggressively, then they would cease to be fish.

i'm not a gt expert, but as bet sizing goes, it's my understanding that overbets (and moreso big overbets) need to be skewed towards bluffs. and when it comes to big river overbets, i cant really think of any player type who i've observed not being fairly skewed towards value.

Last edited by DjSkyy; 11-05-2014 at 01:31 AM.
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Old 11-05-2014, 03:16 AM   #56
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

Gotta 3-bet the turn. You have decent equity versus the straight and amazing equity versus everything else. The river card will change the strength of your hand in a negative way more often than not, and there is a lot of stack to put in the middle and only 2 streets to do it.
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Old 11-05-2014, 06:13 PM   #57
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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i would fold pretty fast otr. i think by definition aggro rec players are fairly clickity. if they actually knew how to balance their aggression while playing as aggressively, then they would cease to be fish.

i'm not a gt expert, but as bet sizing goes, it's my understanding that overbets (and moreso big overbets) need to be skewed towards bluffs. and when it comes to big river overbets, i cant really think of any player type who i've observed not being fairly skewed towards value.
Damn I wish I hadn't read this inspiring post....Got me to bluff off $1500 on the river into a pot of $500 and got snapped by a very marginal hand lol.
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Old 11-05-2014, 07:34 PM   #58
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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Gotta 3-bet the turn. You have decent equity versus the straight and amazing equity versus everything else. The river card will change the strength of your hand in a negative way more often than not, and there is a lot of stack to put in the middle and only 2 streets to do it.
V surprised u r gonna 3bet that turn with these stacks.

More depth on that plz.
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Old 11-05-2014, 08:41 PM   #59
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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V surprised u r gonna 3bet that turn with these stacks.

More depth on that plz.
I know this is going to sound overly simplistic, but I have observed that rec players in general, through most of the stakes level I have played, value raise on the street that in their eyes made their hand. I know that is a pretty basic heuristic, but it has served me well over the ears in funny spots. As this hand played I would have called the turn and been completely blown away by the illogic of his sizing on the river. I like to think I would have manned up and snapped him off, but who knows.
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Old 11-06-2014, 07:06 AM   #60
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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V surprised u r gonna 3bet that turn with these stacks.

More depth on that plz.
Well first of all I can unequivocally state that whenever he has 66, 33, 22, 86, 32, etc, that 3-betting the turn will result in you winning a significantly larger amount of money. This is even the case if alternatively you are calling and shoving the river to his bet (and expecting 100% of these hands to call). This is because the river frequently will complete a flush or one-card straight which will turn your hand from the 2nd nuts into a bluff-catcher. One which you might even incorrectly fold when he massively overbets the pot .

So that aspect of the EV equation (value versus worse value hands in his range) falls in favor of 3-betting turn. The other benefit of 3-betting is protection, both actual protection and range protection. His non-made hand range probably consists largely of flush draws, many of which have gutters to go with them, and we probably benefit more by getting calls from those hands on the turn than by inducing bluffs from them on the river. And pretty much if we 3-bet the turn we will be very unlikely to be bluffed out of the pot. Sure I guess he could donk the rest of his stack in on an ugly card, but he's probably just as likely to do that on a board pair as on a flush card when our 3-bet looks so much like a straight.

So the only bad news of 3-betting the turn as I see it is that we put more money in against 54. But this guy is a donk and it is hard to have one hand. IMO if you're so afraid of this outcome, you shouldn't be sitting with 17k. I think a 4-bet on the turn could contain other hands than the nut straight from the described player anyway, so I don't really see it as much of a negative. And your reads being more calibrated than my outside perspective, perhaps you could even make the fold in the case of that happening. Either way, against 54 you clearly would rather call, and its actually a pretty big disaster to have to fold our boat draw when we win his entire stack when we hit it and he has that hand. But again, IMO he infrequently has 54 so it seems to be not that major of a concern.
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Old 11-06-2014, 10:03 AM   #61
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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I know this is going to sound overly simplistic, but I have observed that rec players in general, through most of the stakes level I have played, value raise on the street that in their eyes made their hand. I know that is a pretty basic heuristic, but it has served me well over the ears in funny spots. As this hand played I would have called the turn and been completely blown away by the illogic of his sizing on the river. I like to think I would have manned up and snapped him off, but who knows.
But in this case, villain had it. He was value betting, not bluffing. he did raise on the street that made his hand and that street was the same one that completed the straight.
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Old 11-07-2014, 11:24 AM   #62
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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But in this case, villain had it. He was value betting, not bluffing. he did raise on the street that made his hand and that street was the same one that completed the straight.
No, he turned two pair, and then basically turned this hand into a bluff on the river when the nuts changed. My rule would have worked because all the hands he represented on the turn were not the nuts (river) yet he triple jammed the pot, leaving us against the same turn check raising value range. We now are in a crazy spot for a lot of money, but we can, in my opinion, often times now discount a 45 hand if we believed he was value raising the turn. The river bet is a wild, roundhouse hook, that very few good players would make. Like I wrote before, sniffing out a mistake here is very much within the realm of possibility, even for this big of a bet. Not saying I would have been able to follow through though. DGAF is 5x the player I am, and it took him some thought.
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Old 11-07-2014, 02:46 PM   #63
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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No, he turned two pair, and then basically turned this hand into a bluff on the river when the nuts changed. My rule would have worked because all the hands he represented on the turn were not the nuts (river) yet he triple jammed the pot, leaving us against the same turn check raising value range. We now are in a crazy spot for a lot of money, but we can, in my opinion, often times now discount a 45 hand if we believed he was value raising the turn. The river bet is a wild, roundhouse hook, that very few good players would make. Like I wrote before, sniffing out a mistake here is very much within the realm of possibility, even for this big of a bet. Not saying I would have been able to follow through though. DGAF is 5x the player I am, and it took him some thought.
Why can we rule out 45 if we think he's value raising the turn? 45 is the nuts on the turn.
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Old 11-07-2014, 08:56 PM   #64
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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Why can we rule out 45 if we think he's value raising the turn? 45 is the nuts on the turn.
I didn't say completely rule it out, it's definitely in his range and is the apex if we believe he made his hand ott, however a triple pot size jam is not consistent with that holding when the board changes otr.
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Old 11-08-2014, 02:19 AM   #65
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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No, he turned two pair, and then basically turned this hand into a bluff on the river when the nuts changed.
He probably put DGAF on TP/overpair and decided that DGAF just wouldn't be able to fold.

When fish are playing a maniac (or someone they perceive to be a maniac), they often think that calling with any 2 to catch 2 pair+ is a good idea, cauz the maniac won't be able to stop betting/calling.
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Old 11-08-2014, 05:10 AM   #66
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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This is far from an easy fold. Rec players don't bet 3x pot for value to try to level you into calling.
1) I wouldn't classify this guy as a typical "rec player" because higher stake rich guys that are competitive tend to understand bluffing/vbetting/psychological flow etc. I think this guy has a clue, just not going to win vs OP in the long run but he's not an idiot.

2) I used to think that rich guys who play in higher uncapped games don't use oversized valuebets, until I learned the harsh lesson that that is EXACTLY what they do very very often. These guys who have the nuts are often bad at building pots on earlier streets, so when they get to the river they have a lot of their stack left to bet and just shove it in.

Last edited by 663366; 11-08-2014 at 05:16 AM.
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Old 11-08-2014, 07:23 AM   #67
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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1) I wouldn't classify this guy as a typical "rec player" because higher stake rich guys that are competitive tend to understand bluffing/vbetting/psychological flow etc. I think this guy has a clue, just not going to win vs OP in the long run but he's not an idiot.

2) I used to think that rich guys who play in higher uncapped games don't use oversized valuebets, until I learned the harsh lesson that that is EXACTLY what they do very very often. These guys who have the nuts are often bad at building pots on earlier streets, so when they get to the river they have a lot of their stack left to bet and just shove it in.
I like this post a lot. I have definitely noticed what you wrote in point two. There are so many different kinds of rec player, but the most dangerous are the cash rich, street hustler type of guy, as opposed to the great job good salary type. Some of the Greek/Russian (for lack of a better descriptor) playes are super cagey who seem pretty good at both applying pressure and selling a big hand. That is why it is so important to break their hands/action down street by street to get a decent read. They can do a lot of damage before they go down in flames.
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Old 11-08-2014, 05:30 PM   #68
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

As usual Rentons posts are sick.

RE: Live reads / asking question otr

I completely see what DGAF is talking about because when some backpack wearing wizard who hasn't said a word in 6 hours starts interrogating a fish and then SNAPS when fish gives it away...this is just so so bad for the game. Fish do not like feeling they got owned and they especially don't like backpack wearing wizards.

Where I think it's different is if you aren't a backpack wearing wizard and have been active / chatty / drinking the whole game. Then you're just doing the same thing you've been doing, being chatty / friendly. Also when you pick up on something (like the voice crack), dont snap ldo. Keep talking, then eventually sigh call it off. I can't believe how bad some of the young regs are in this aspect of live poker. They want everyone to know how great they are and that is all that matters.

FYI - my voice cracks when I have the nuts. Lol live reads
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Old 11-08-2014, 05:39 PM   #69
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

yo not 3-betting top set this deep is terrible,

people play so bad 'deep'. they think playing deep means becoming a passive nit.

the only reason not to 3-bet 88 on the turn is if you have a read he has a complete bluff and will fold to a 3-bet
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Old 11-10-2014, 03:48 AM   #70
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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Originally Posted by SqredII View Post
I know this is going to sound overly simplistic, but I have observed that rec players in general, through most of the stakes level I have played, value raise on the street that in their eyes made their hand. I know that is a pretty basic heuristic, but it has served me well over the ears in funny spots. As this hand played I would have called the turn and been completely blown away by the illogic of his sizing on the river. I like to think I would have manned up and snapped him off, but who knows.
agreed, when they bink they pile, and if they are going to fire draws they do that immediately as well, that's why 97 was in the back of my mind and 54 was in the front.
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Old 11-10-2014, 05:19 AM   #71
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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Well first of all I can unequivocally state that whenever he has 66, 33, 22, 86, 32, etc, that 3-betting the turn will result in you winning a significantly larger amount of money. This is even the case if alternatively you are calling and shoving the river to his bet (and expecting 100% of these hands to call). This is because the river frequently will complete a flush or one-card straight which will turn your hand from the 2nd nuts into a bluff-catcher. One which you might even incorrectly fold when he massively overbets the pot .

So that aspect of the EV equation (value versus worse value hands in his range) falls in favor of 3-betting turn. The other benefit of 3-betting is protection, both actual protection and range protection. His non-made hand range probably consists largely of flush draws, many of which have gutters to go with them, and we probably benefit more by getting calls from those hands on the turn than by inducing bluffs from them on the river. And pretty much if we 3-bet the turn we will be very unlikely to be bluffed out of the pot. Sure I guess he could donk the rest of his stack in on an ugly card, but he's probably just as likely to do that on a board pair as on a flush card when our 3-bet looks so much like a straight.

So the only bad news of 3-betting the turn as I see it is that we put more money in against 54. But this guy is a donk and it is hard to have one hand. IMO if you're so afraid of this outcome, you shouldn't be sitting with 17k. I think a 4-bet on the turn could contain other hands than the nut straight from the described player anyway, so I don't really see it as much of a negative. And your reads being more calibrated than my outside perspective, perhaps you could even make the fold in the case of that happening. Either way, against 54 you clearly would rather call, and its actually a pretty big disaster to have to fold our boat draw when we win his entire stack when we hit it and he has that hand. But again, IMO he infrequently has 54 so it seems to be not that major of a concern.
Good post. I disagree with 3 betting turn, but I always appreciate/respect your logic.

1. It's a travesty when he shoves over the 3-bet (he's impulsive/not really into sizing obv). We have to fold imo, and we lose A LOT of money (in equity/implied odds) when that happens.

2. While focusing on one hand is often silly (aka "I put him on AK"), I don't think it's too silly to direct most of the attention here towards 54. His line of call the raise out of the blinds, c/c the flop, c/r the turn against me at this depth is the nuts WAY more often than it is a different value hand ime. And as SqredII noted, the turn card almost always helped villain's hand. So when his value hand isn't 54, it's usually 32, sometimes 22, and rarely 82 or 62 (tougher because of pre obv). It's almost never 66 or 33...

3. The part of his c/r range that I can beat, puts ~ the same amount (or more) in total when I flat the c/r and rep overpair vs when I 3-bet turn imo--> I'm allowed to bet/raise a bunch of rivers, and I get called super light on that street in general.


Lemme know if there are any gaping holes in ^^^ as I'm currently in the variance abyss and therefore not really playing/thinking/posting my A game. Thx.
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Old 11-10-2014, 05:23 AM   #72
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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But in this case, villain had it. He was value betting, not bluffing. he did raise on the street that made his hand and that street was the same one that completed the straight.
Yeah, he took his line for value for sure. He was super confident and happy until I told him what I had. Doubt he has a bluff here hardly ever ftr.
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Old 11-10-2014, 05:25 AM   #73
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
As usual Rentons posts are sick.

RE: Live reads / asking question otr

I completely see what DGAF is talking about because when some backpack wearing wizard who hasn't said a word in 6 hours starts interrogating a fish and then SNAPS when fish gives it away...this is just so so bad for the game. Fish do not like feeling they got owned and they especially don't like backpack wearing wizards.

Where I think it's different is if you aren't a backpack wearing wizard and have been active / chatty / drinking the whole game. Then you're just doing the same thing you've been doing, being chatty / friendly. Also when you pick up on something (like the voice crack), dont snap ldo. Keep talking, then eventually sigh call it off. I can't believe how bad some of the young regs are in this aspect of live poker. They want everyone to know how great they are and that is all that matters.

FYI - my voice cracks when I have the nuts. Lol live reads
idk, pretty hard to fake nervousness/uneasiness imo
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Old 11-10-2014, 05:26 AM   #74
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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Good post. I disagree with 3 betting turn, but I always appreciate/respect your logic.

1. It's a travesty when he shoves over the 3-bet (he's impulsive/not really into sizing obv). We have to fold imo, and we lose A LOT of money (in equity/implied odds) when that happens.

2. While focusing on one hand is often silly (aka "I put him on AK"), I don't think it's too silly to direct most of the attention here towards 54. His line of call the raise out of the blinds, c/c the flop, c/r the turn against me at this depth is the nuts WAY more often than it is a different value hand ime. And as SqredII noted, the turn card almost always helped villain's hand. So when his value hand isn't 54, it's usually 32, sometimes 22, and rarely 82 or 62 (tougher because of pre obv). It's almost never 66 or 33...

3. The part of his c/r range that I can beat, puts ~ the same amount (or more) in total when I flat the c/r and rep overpair vs when I 3-bet turn imo--> I'm allowed to bet/raise a bunch of rivers, and I get called super light on that street in general.


Lemme know if there are any gaping holes in ^^^ as I'm currently in the variance abyss and therefore not really playing/thinking/posting my A game. Thx.
dont know why you completly count out 68 or 33 or 66 or 63.

most of them get c/r otf, but at least 20% get c/r ott. also villian could have a really silly hand like AA...

the c/r is so small, i dont think thats the nuts at all.

and from the description he came in some sort of duell mindset in this pot, that all makes me want to 3-bet the turn to around 2000$. that leaves enoguh room and he simply wont shove 17k in even if he has the nuts imo.

edit: if he snpacalls the 2000$ you gonna safelyvalubet most rivers and if he has the nuts he most likely put in a very small 4-bet you can call and hopefully boat up or getting checked to otr
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Old 11-10-2014, 05:37 AM   #75
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Re: People don't bet 5k on the river very often

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yo not 3-betting top set this deep is terrible,

people play so bad 'deep'. they think playing deep means becoming a passive nit.

the only reason not to 3-bet 88 on the turn is if you have a read he has a complete bluff and will fold to a 3-bet
this is a very tilting post, not sure if it's because you started it with yo (and I don't know you), you implied I'm a passive nit, or because you almost certainly have never played 1000 bbs deep (of real money) against impulsive, rich, smart, successful men/you have no idea wtf you are talking about.

why do people say "people play so bad", instead of just going and winning all the easy money???

(obv if I wasn't running like **** I wouldn't have replied to this post, but def need to vent a little, thx)
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