People don't bet 5k on the river very often... At least not in casinos where 5-10 1k cap is usually the biggest game going. Tonight it's 5-10-20 no cap- both hero and villain demand this structure when they come in, and most all the respectable gambler regs who appreciate the action (aka double ups) and banter that will be provided usually snap oblige.

Villain is a rich aggro rec player who has been running insane. He's not afraid to bet on a long shot if you know what I mean, and the long shots having been coming in at a high frequency for a while now . He has crushed hero lately with this strategy and he also offers sick juice on big flips with hero, but the juice never matters because he's undefeated. All that aside, he really likes playing with/battling hero.

Hero is me. Stuck but not steaming. Playing a little more solid than usual because the game is already wide open...

Effective stacks ~ 17k.

Hero opens 88 in lp to 60 and only villain calls from the 20 blind. Flop 863r. Villain check/calls 100. Pot is ~ 330. Turn is 2 (now there are 2 diamonds). Villain c/r 280 to 720. Hero calls. Pot is ~ 1770. River 5 (no flush), so 86325. Villain bets 5k.

Villain knows hero can/will call light in general, and so he has value bet semi-light kind of big in the past (otherwise this would be a snap fold prob), but honestly I can't recall a time when he bluffed a large amount (aside from semi-bluffs pre river). I imagine he has it in him though.

What are you gonna do?

gross....i'd fold.

Easy fold IMO.

As played, I'd fold.

I like 3balling turn this deep though.

Made it easier on you by betting so large; have to fold for that sizing. If this is some sick bluff then more power to him. Be closer spot had he bet 1/2pot or something.

Easy fold

how in the world is this an easy fold? what is villain repping? you guys realize we're at the top of our range, right? Not an easy fold imo. At all. what range do you guys put villain on? Just 54? "Villain is a rich aggro rec player who has been running insane" only has 54s here? Does he play 54o pre in this spot? He has 4 times more 54's if he does, but he may not, idk. still not a snap fold at all. Hard to convince me it's a fold.

I don't get that at all. Explain plz.

fyp

This is far from an easy fold. Rec players don't bet 3x pot for value to try to level you into calling.

The top of our range is 79. villain is repping 79. I understand what you're getting at but I don't think i've ever seen anyone 3x pot this spot without the nuts in my life.

Can anyone who responded with just 'easy fold' explain a bit more?

Villain is repping 97? He c/r vs an image with not a lotta fold equity in it with a bare oesd ott? When 1/4 of his outs may be tainted? And yeah 88 is pretty damn far up in our range that I'd say it's at the top. Would villain ever bet 2.8x pot with the 2nd nuts when we have the nuts in our range? Even if he doesn't think we have 97 in our range, he's still unlikely to bet that large with 54 imo. He has 1 combo of 97 and it's 97dd and I'd discount it to .5 combos of it b/c he doesn't take this line with it often and maybe never, so maybe .25 combos of it.

no ones betting 3x pot without a straight esp when we can have a fair number of straights - all possible semi bluffs got there otr and there's alot of them....he has more then one combo of 97 calling out of the blind.....I dont think being at the top of our range matters much here either

while every young pro thinks the flop a draw and c/r the turn line is super sexy (they do it to me every time, I never fold cuz they rep ****, but they always hit on the river so I guess it's smart), do rec players really do this very often???

I honestly gave 97 less credit than random 4x, and way less credit than 54. Maybe that was a mistake.

I'd like to hear other's thoughts- do recs/fish/whales delay c/r their draws like all the hotshots do these days?

I think villain shows up with 4x more often than 79.

From a game theory perspective, you don't have to call very often when someone bets 3x pot. We get to the river with 4xdd and 79 at the very least, so it's not like we are never calling if we fold 88.

From an exploitative perspective, I just don't think calling without a straight is going to be profitable. From my experience, 3x pot on a 4 straight board is usually the nuts or at least a straight.

If I'm well rolled for this game and not taking a shot or something, I'm calling this river bet all day. Playing poker for the low hanging fruit is not as profitable and its boring! Please say you called and were good?

very few older recs are going to play 7/9 this way. 45 more often but not a lot. i am folding and hating it, cause i think we are good here a lot.

Don't have anything new to add, but I agree that a) he shows up with 54 or 4x more often than 79, and b) turbo fold. If it's a bluff, god bless him.

This.

Not this. The opposite of this. They do it all the time. "Hehehe I'm gonna overbet so it looks like a bluff and get paid, genius!"

Gardens?

V has been running like god, is trying to get the max from AA, can't see him taking this sizing with a bluff if he's winning for the night

Seems like if you're out of levelly/feely/theory ideas here maybe considering what the profitability of the game becomes after you win/lose this pot will be the most worthwhile thing to spend your time thinking about. Can you call, lose, rebuy to cover, and rep some tilty persona that you can exploit his and others' perception of to a considerable extent? If you call and win, what happens to his game? This seems like a medium to big size pot for this game so it's natural for results to subconsciously and unconsciously affect behavior for a couple hours at least -- something ripe for exploitation based on your description of the dynamic between you two.

I think this is very reasonable to consider if we think this decision is close between call/fold. But I don't think it's remotely close.

If we have 99 or 77, do we shove?

I put villain on a nine and a seven. 60%
He could also have a random straight. 25%
Button clicking 15%

So fold. Hard to imagine scenario where we are good over 40% of the time. He has to be button clicking a ton.

Also I pulled those numbers out of my ass