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Medium-High Stakes Full Ring Discussion of $400+ pot-limit and no-limit and 5/10 live texas hold'em full ring games, situations and strategies

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Old 04-11-2021, 09:35 AM   #1
mister.orange
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Join Date: Apr 2021
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My friends tell me i acted wrong, help me with hand analysis :)

Hi guys,

The other night I was at a live table and this hand got played. Im just a rookie and play for fun.

Now after it happened i showed my hands and everyone at the table been telling me since that what I did was wrong.

Cash game 20/40, 9man table

Started with 3k and grinded to 12k then this action unfolded:
http://mysmp.me/h_pUD

In my mind, I'm obviously behind will be pushed to all in at turn.

They argue that I should either reraise or at least call and see the turn.

In my mind, i am beat and to chase the flush, it will cost me my whole stack and I will only get the flush 25% of the time.

So if bet 12k to win 16k and i only win 25% of the times, the my mind the following would be like this:

If we play this hand 10 times,
I bet 12k
Can win 16k
25% of the times I will win: 16,16,8, thats 40k profit
75% of the i will loose: 12,12,12,12,12,12,12,6, thats 90 loss

Now, my friends tell me my math are wrong and that i should always call.

Can someone really good poker player tell me the real math and logic and what to do.

Thanks
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Old 04-13-2021, 01:52 PM   #2
DumbosTrunk
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Re: My friends tell me i acted wrong, help me with hand analysis :)

If you need a card to complete your flush and there's one card to come (assuming V jams turn), you have (reasonably) between 7-9 outs once, which using the rule of 2 (multiply your outs by two to determine your chance of improving) is approximately 14-18% equity. If your pot odds are at least that much (around 16%) you should call. If not, fold. To figure out pot odds, divide the amount you need to call by the total pot after you call.

You only have 25% if you see both the turn and river.
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