Hello everyone,

This is an assertion as much as it is a question.
I have a calculation but I'm not sure if I'm thinking right. Therefore, it would be helpful if other eyes can look at this and say if it is right or wrong. If that's wrong, I'd love to learn how to think about it instead.

We have 65 of harts and villain have AA without harts.
Flopp is KQ9 with two harts.
Therefore, we have a flushdraw on the flop without overcards and we have 37,5% chans of winning.

The pot is $1000 and the action is,
Villian bets $500 and hero shove all in for $3000.

We all know that if villian folds hero win $1000(pot)+$500(villians bet)=$1500
If he calls we loose $3000 but we can draw out on him therefore we only loose:

-- This is my calculation --
$3000(hero bet)+$3000(villian bet)+$1000(pot)=$7000
..37,5% is hero chans of winning when called..
$7000*0,33=$2310
$3000(hero bet)-$2310(getting back when called)=$690
-- End of calculation --

Now we can say:
If he folds we win $1500
If he calls we loose $690

If he calls 2 of 3 times we end up:
+$1500
-$690
-$690
=$120

We take $120/3(times all in)=$40

We win $40 on shoveing if he calls 2 of 3 times.

I think im right but I really need to get lectured if im wrong.

Thanks to all that did take time to read this!

7000*.375=2625


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yeah true, I did calculate 7000*0,33

-- This is my calculation --
$3000(hero bet)+$3000(villian bet)+$1000(pot)=$7000
..37,5% is hero chans of winning when called..
$7000*0,375=$2625
$3000(hero bet)-$2625(getting back when called)=$375
-- End of calculation --

Now we can say:
If he folds we win $1500
If he calls we loose $375

If he calls 2 of 3 times we end up:
+$1500
-$375
-$375
=$750

We take $750/3(times all in)=$250

We win $250 on shoveing if he calls 2 of 3 times.

I did change the calc from 0,33 to 0,375.

But is this really right?

I think what you’re saying is all true but it’s kind of weird formatting.
The way I think about it is:
He folds we win +1500
He calls we lose -375.

So then,
1500/(1500+375) = .8

So if he calls 80% we’re breaking even. Any less and we’re in the positive.


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Ok cool that its right.
I just think its strange that we + so much money if he folds lets say 1 in 3 times. But sure we do!

Yes shoving is +EV if you get a fold more than 20% of the time.

To get a real answer to the question of "what should i do with my flush draw", you would then need to compare it to the EV of just flatting the bet (will you be able to fold at some point if you miss, will he continue barreling on the turn, and will he pay you off if you hit). Very hard to calculate honestly bc there are so many different ways the hand can play out.

How do you know your opponent has AA without harts?

Can somebody give this formula? Отправлено с моего Redmi Note 4X через Tapatalk