Hi everyone, is my first post here on 2+2. I was playing 10/20 Big Blind Ante 20 game live at vegas.
I open Ah10c $60 on the HJ position. CO reg call. BB fish call.
Flop As 6c 8h. BB x. I bet $60 into $210. CO call. BB fold.
Turn 5d. I x. Co bet $250 into $330. I call. I usually x call my weaker Ax here on the turn.
River 3c. I x. He bet $1000 into $830. I called.

My strategy was to x call lot of my weaker Ax on the turn and the river.
I have discussed this hand with many of my peers and they seems to agree that river is a clear fold.
They said opponent is too stupid to be so greedy here and we should only x/c only with 2 pairs plus.
However i found it difficult to come up on the river with 2 pairs+ that i will x call on turn and river.
Perhaps only 4 combos of A3ss.

I have try running it on PIO and i'm not sure if im doing it correctly.
Solver seems to always call with their Ax on the river to a big bet.
However when i try to node lock CO range to pretty tight on the turn, ie like sets,two pairs and only bluff seems to be like 67ss, the solver fold basically all Ax on the river to a large bet.
My peers ask me to list out his bluff that will OB bluff on the river, seems to be only hands like 67ss and 78ss.
So it seems like there is too much value hands compare to bluff and thus the fold.
However solver always recommend a call with Ax on the river.

I will greatly appreciate some feedback and comments.

Thanks.

Ya sounds like you already got it figured out mostly... FWIW I think this exact hand plays better as a flop check but betting small is obviously fine.

I'm folding here readless given flop was 3way expecting this to be underbluffed but ya like you said this hand mostly makes it into the call range I would have to guess.

One thing is that you can't run this hand in PIO... PIO only does heads up spots and flop was 3way. Before anyone says "well it's similar enough to heads up so it's still useful information" no it's absolutely not useful information; the strategy changes DRASTICALLY from HU to 3way. You will lose a lot of money playing strategies designed for heads up then applying them to multiway situations.

Amen

First question: do you think CO is calling the HJ with an A better than AT? If so, which ones? AJ? AQ? AK?

I'd suggest the best unpaired hand v has pre is AJ, and i doubt even that, especially if by reg you mean somewhat competent.

I think the flop was played well. You could have made the bet slightly larger - 70 to 75, maybe. You are going to have the best hand almost everytime given pre action. I'd only be wary of sets or unlikely 2pr.

I think the turn should be a bet. You are ahead of almost every one pair hand, and v should float with 8s or bigger pairs. The 5d is one of the best cards in the deck for you. You only fall behind A5, 97, unlikely 65 or 55. Of all the likely aces, you are ahead of A-9,7,4,3,2. You are behind A-J,8,6,5. If we exclude AJ, this is a sure bet. Including AJ makes it more marginal, but there are other one pair hands that will call the flop, and any card other than exactly a T has to be a river check.

Alluding to your heads MW vs HU disclaimer if using Pio (i'm not a solver person so and a lower limit guy), why in this case would it be different? In a HU pot would you be c-betting a small sizing (25% or something similar), as opposed to a C/C flop in a Multiway pot and if so why?

thanks for any replies

You're facing 2 ranges instead of 1 range. Each of those ranges will have some statuc portion that is very high EV like sets/2 pairs, strong top pairs, and good draws. Because of this, it is more likely that we are facing one of these high EV hands (which will continue vs a bet), compared to when we are facing only 1 range. While the frequency at which we will face these high EV hands is not exactly double (preflop ranges/blockers and board texture will dictate this), it is going to be significantly higher 3way compared to HU (for each extra player this will also increase). Additionally, compared to HU pots the SPR is lower when MW because of the extra money preflop.

Because of this we will bet less frequently on most boards and also we will be using a smaller sizing (in relation to the size of the pot) on most boards (due to the decreased SPR) compared to a heads up situation.

In regards to betting 25% or X/C in this exact spot HJ vs CO vs BB, it's going to pretty close (compared to HJ vs CO) because I imagine ATo gets mixed between check and bet both when HU and when MW; however, the frequency at which you bet and check will change drastically (in your overall betting strategy and with this exact combo). Additionally, the CO's calling range has to be stronger than if this were HU because now CO risks the BB raising or calling and the CO isn't guaranteed a turn card at the current price. This is why you can't reliably plug in PIO results from a HU flop spot (like this spot but HJ vs CO) to the turn and river; the frequencies and hand ranges will be drastically different from the HU spot, which will provide totally different turn and river ranges which could be SEVERELY different than what the true multiway solution looks like.

In reality the answer is much, much more complicated than this but I'm not smart enough to understand it fully let alone explain it xD

FWIW a good flop strategy simplification is when OOP MW check your entire range; I don't think you'll be losing too much EV.

Explained very well!! Thanks very much sir