Three players in the hand

UTG +1 Solid young white male pro, pretty typical opening range, 45s+, A5s, A10s+, 55+ ($4k stack)

BTN Young female, Vanessa Selbst-esque, large calling range pre ($1.2k stack)

SB (Hero) 29 yr old Asian male pro. Relatively tight SB flat range 22+, A10s+, 910s+. (3b AQs+, TT+, A5s) ($4k stack)

Utg +1 open to 35
BTN call
SB (Hero) calls with 4 4

3 way flop ($115)

10 7 4

SB (Hero) Check
Utg +1 Bet 70
BTN call
SB (Hero) Raise to 250
Utg +1 Calls within 20-30 seconds
BTN Folds reluctantly

Turn HU ($685)

9

SB (Hero) Bet 525
Utg +1 call

River HU ($1735)
8

SB (Hero) Check
UTG +1 Bet 1150
Hero ...?

I'd fold.

Not a fan of the raise on the flop if your range is so tight from sb. You dont have any 2 pairs, will have very few straight draws since you only play the best suited connectors and no gappers as a flat pre.

As it turns out you dont even have all 9 sets ...not that your opponents know about it necessarily.

The problem with having such a one dimensional value heavy raising range is oop on this board with a lot of money behind you will rarely have the nuts by the river.

I would like a raise here if you were in bb.

As played you are left to guess the frequency with which he would bluff in this spot. My lol live reg logic is he knows your hand is pretty strong to check raise that board given how tight you play from sb. And that he is not trying to get you to fold a set.

Gross spot

Your hand looks like what it is, and if it's not you have a busted draw so he really shouldn't be betting worse here or bluffing very often. And if he did have something like AQss I'm not sure he would use this sizing to get you off what you've represented.

Even if he's raising 9Ts and betting that on river for value I think this is still a fold

This is a pretty great hand to post, have been thinking about it for a few days and I think hero has to call it off as played. Seems tough for villain to have a j or 6 as played. If he is going for thin value we are just also too close to the top of our range to fold.

By my rough estimations Villain should mostly win with ajs, kjs, qjs(?) a6s, 56(maybe) and bigger sets. If thin valueing 2p, overpairs and seems like a mandatory bluff for many others, just seems like the odds are too good to pass up.

I do agree with disco the smaller sizing is a valid concern but hard to read a ton into it without knowing more history on both players involved.

Edit: thinking some more if villain does have it, I think j8ss and 86sxx are both very reasonable, but its not clear if they are in range. This deep 86 suited probably should be.

I think it's hard for him to find enough bluffs and thin value given our line

Call and lose

Is V opening J9s/J8s here? How often will he bluff a missed flush draw or overplay two pair this way? With four cards to a straight I could see him having a bunch of J's in his hand by the river. You're basically bluff catching. Try to soul read. I'm leaning towards fold.

I think that particular turn needs to be near pot or possibly above pot.

Yeah overbetting turn here in general seems pretty good because UTG+1 doesn't really have straights unless he's opening super wide. Also 77/TT are likely to 3bet flop, UTG+1's only better hand is 99. Easy to mix in some bluffs with combodraw type hands.

U are assigning V too narrow of a range. Don't discredit V for straight here, At this point his hand is uncapped and could have the absolute nuts. After he call ur raise u can eliminate all bluffs. V definitely just calls with 1010 and 77 on flop with good amount of frequency other times he has a flush draw, can't clearly count number of combos with Js in them


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V may have the straight but Heros range is much stronger IMO and I think betting the turn is standard I prob just bet the standard 1/2 to 3/4 pot sized bet on the turn.

lol looking at some ranges it seems that our range advantage is no existent on this turn (hold'em skills rusty it appears), with that said our hand still is crushing Vs flop calling range and I think betting is fine using the smaller sizing...

fold

Sorry, but this is definitely a fold OTR. There is no way he's bluffing here. You obviously cannot beat the str8 he's representing and he definitely is not bluffing above 27.5% in order for you to break even on a call call. If you are sure he's bluffing and also have to be sure he's bluffing with enough frequency for you to call. Else, you got to give him his bluff/pot. There's no way around this. No matter how painful it is for your Set. That's the correct play. If he's bluffing less or about 27-28% and you call every time you'll be losing your last call 72x1,150=82,800 and win the pot+his last when he's bluffing 27-28% like 28x2,885=80,780

As you can see you losing money because dudes on the 5/10 and 10/20 don't bluff enough to reach the optimal point percentage (the point at which the fold become a call and the call gets to be a fold instead). The key number to remember is 30% when villain bets or shoves at the river a pot size bet. When he bets less then the pot like in this case and you get 2.5:1 the key number is 27.5% and if he's betting 1/2 pot the number is 25%. Don't get too complicated, villains in those game don't bluff at the river for big bets. Any bet on the river for 2/3 pot when the pot was bet on every street, is a strong hand.

agreed