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Live 5/5/10 Spot pre Live 5/5/10 Spot pre

11-21-2018 , 09:20 PM
Playing 5/5/10 (10 is a not live staddle) 6 handend, I am the effective stack with 350$. At a 6 handed table live

V1: A 35 y/o guy, have seen him open hands like 78o from utg. Has been in quite a lot of hands since I joined the table 2 hours ago.

Hero: 20 y/o Guy, First time playing in this particular casino. Havnt shown down any hands in the past two hours. 3 bet twice pre. By far the least active person om the table. Pretty much folded down from 700$ to 350$

OTTH: V1 opens utg to 40. Folds to me on the button with QJo.
Me??


Can I shove this given my relatively tight image?

Not sure if I should put my analyses of the spot in the post but I feel like I made some wrong assumptions in here possibly, if it would be better to delete the analyses from the post and possibly post it later let me know!

Since I wasnt sure about the spot I decided to anylize it and put in some assumptions here is the outcome.
UTG opens from 78o (since I have seem him open this from UTG) so around 35.75% of hands (any pair, any broadway 45s+, 78o+ A2s+, 97s+, Q9s, K9s, J9o, Q9o, K9o, A2o+)
Assuming other players call 9s+ and AQo+ so 5.13% of hands
Need to get through SB, BB, and Straddle who have a random hand so I will be called here 15.39% of the time.
I think calling range from the opener is the same (He might call AJs or 88s but first to act might fold 99s and AQo if he is tight so lets just keep it the same to make it easier)
Since the original openers range is clear we can say he calls 14.3% of the time
So in total I get called 19.69% of the time
Also assuming if 1 person calls everyone else folds
If everyone folds I win 5+5+10+40 = 60 and my stack is 400$ after the hand
When I get called by SB-BB-Straddle pot is 340+340+40+(20/3x2=)13=733
If I get called by original raiser port is 20+340+340=700 (14.3/33.9=)42.1% of the time we get called the pot is this
And 57.9% when we get called pot is 733
So average pot when called = (0.579x733+0.421x700=)719$
QJo has 29.69% against a range of 9s+ and AQo+
So when called I have an EV of (29.69x719=)213.47$
(0.1969%x213.47+0.8031x400=)363.27$
So if what I said Is true I make an EV of (363.27-340=)23.27$
In realilty two people behind call some of the time and my equity will be 18% vs the players (if secone player calls AKo and QQ+ ) and the EV in this situation is 185.4$ and not 213.47$, but I don’t think this will happen over 1% of the time so I just exclude this
Are the assumptions made here correct or think villians will also call AJs a big % of the time for example?
Live 5/5/10 Spot pre Quote
11-22-2018 , 01:06 AM
Tl:dr
Get 100b stack
Fold pre
Live 5/5/10 Spot pre Quote
11-22-2018 , 04:35 AM
^
Live 5/5/10 Spot pre Quote
11-22-2018 , 07:40 PM
V1 sounds like me. I'd never fold an Ace to your stinky stack, or any pocket pair. Your best bet is to add on, play 1/2, or just have it since isn't likely to fold.
Live 5/5/10 Spot pre Quote
11-23-2018 , 12:22 PM
Fold. Leave table. Sit at 1/2.
Live 5/5/10 Spot pre Quote
11-26-2018 , 06:05 AM
Why are you sitting with dirt
Live 5/5/10 Spot pre Quote
11-26-2018 , 06:34 AM
Yes this is a slightly profitable but high variance longterm shove. He will often have worse hands and may fold split equity if your image is actually tight. If you know he likes you and wants to be nice he’ll be more inclined to fold which is the factor i’d use when deciding.

I would get up and short stack 2/5 PLO waiting for a high-equity hand like JJ109ds to get in 5 ways where you get all 5 cards and others will be forced to fold on the flop.
Live 5/5/10 Spot pre Quote

      
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