Hey, I played a not very fun hand and wanna make sure if my line was fine. 2/5, HJ opens to 25 (no reads but I thought he was more of a loose passive guy so I put him on a pretty tight range - he proved me wrong), I am in SB with AhAd and 3bet to 102. I have ~600 behind (he has me covered, 140bb effective). Flop comes 7s8s8. Pot: 210, I bet 100. He thinks for a bit and calls. Turn is Ks, completing FD. Pot: 410, I bet 100 because I figured it's such a good card for me and I thought his range was mostly pairs 99-QQ after calling flop. He calls pretty quickly and river comes another 7. Pot: 610, board: 7s8s8Ks7. I jam for about 400 and he snaps me with 78o for a flopped full house. My guess would be it's fine theory-wise and I given I didn't know the player and his open sizing I thought we can still get value and don't think I'm folding without reads so I'd rather bet myself, does anyone think this was too thin? Thanks in advance to every one who replies.

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You bet too big flop. 1/3 is ok. Turn is not good you don’t have As. Also he can’t call with the pairs you were already beating except KK. Check eval. or bet very small. Checking rivers.

Of course he can call with pairs I was beating what do you mean? I did bet very small (less than quarter) and I think a lot of worse hands call that bet - my 3bet range isn't AA, KK and AK exclusively. Also I think regarding flop sizing that half pot is preferred on these kind of boards. River was the real decision point, mainly between jamming and check calling. I didn't really consider check folding but maybe I should have. Thanks for your response, of course it's not a great spot but we have to acknowledge there was under 3 SPR on the flop, not many runouts I'm gonna fold aces on tbh but I could be wrong for sure.

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turn bet and river bet are both horrible
what are you hoping he will call your jam with OTR?

why did you narrow his range to just 99-QQ after calling flop? i’d give “loose passive” credit for an extremely wide range at all points in the hand

I was hoping he sometimes heroes me with a king and broadway pairs but yeah getting called by worse is definitely hard on this runout. I like my turn bet, you can't just bet full houses, flushes and bluffs man there's lot of value to be had still imo but sometimes you're just gonna run into it. River was iffy tho for sure but as I said not planning on folding I thought I'd rather shove myself than "let him bluff" because I don't think many players bluff this board enough since it was hard for him to have air the way I perceived his range (thought he was loose passive, meaning mostly limping that's why when he 5x opened I put him on a strong range) and I didn't want him to snap check behind JJ or AK or something like that.
Thanks for your reply tho but don't just call my play horrible unless you solved the spot - you can say you don't like it or that another line makes more money in your opinion but I don't like this attitude without any backup explanation behind it nor do I agree it can be that bad.

Btw, after playing with him for a bit more he did make some weird bluffs so if I played it again I'd probably go for the check call but as I said the hand was played with no reads on him so I just wanted to choose a line that I thought (not saying this was correct thinking) made the most in general.

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Gotta check the turn and evaluate. The board isn't great and that turn isn't either.

Smaller otf. Rest of the hand is fine.

These are the spots I run into tons as I would have bet, bet bet too. No reads and over pr seems standard. You guys that are saying check turn. Are we checking because the flush gets there and we don't have the As? What about charging draws in this spot?

Seriously don’t listen to ppl in these forums. If you play poker at any level of seriousness buy pio and get the right answer

Yeah that is the better solution for sure but I thought this forum might be better for exploitative plays that can be used to maximize vs live players and wanted to know if I overplayed my aces. Given how wide he was, I guess the answer was yes because he will have too many of these hands and not enough worse to call my river jam on such a dangerous board. I feel at the time of the hand I put too much thought into his 5x open and call of the 3bet and wrongly assigned him a tight, big-pair heavy range and went with my read. I don't think it can be a big punt with less than 3 SPR on the flop but maybe check-calling was the better option, I didn't really consider check-folding but I guess the moment I was called I knew I was beat (obviously since it was a snap but still felt a bit greedy). In my experience however most live players aren't aggressive on the river, especially in big pots and won't bluff enough or value bet thin so I was "scared" to check and have him check behind QQ-TT or even AK, but blocking AK I'm not sure how many of these hands are calling anyway. Also even though the river looks dangerous imo it's pretty much a brick since I don't see many 7x hands calling the turn bet and his range OTR (in my mind) was divided between weak bluff-catchers and trips+ which are shoving, so I thought if I'm not folding I might as well go for some thin value and hope not to get snapped. Exploitatively maybe betting 150-200 and folding to a shove would work better in practice so that some pairs can find a hero call and he might just call with a flush instead of raising (or even a 7 if he has any) so it's a win-win for my hand and definitely something I would do vs certain players but with no reads other than the open sizing it felt a bit ridiculous.

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This is a good example of a spot when PIO is of limited use, because the results will depend almost entirely on the range we assign to the villain. We don't want to fall into the trap of using PIO to rationalize our plays by running calculations with unrealistic ranges.

I think your mistake was to assign an unrealistic range to your opponent as you were going to the flop. The fact is villain was opening in late position and called a 3-bet in position. So he should likely have some 7s and 8s in his range (not 78o but heh).

Personally I like to start with a check on the flop. AA is less vulnerable to being drawn out on, so I like to check the biggest pairs and bet 99-JJ (probably some QQ too) as these smaller pairs benefit more from protection against over cards on the turn. Checking with AA and KK also helps protect our range by preventing villain from going crazy against our unpaired over card hands.

I know you said villain was loose passive, but if villain checks back flop, you can still get all the money in by betting turn and river. You also gain more info from villain, and the hand plays out totally different (doesn't mean you wouldn't still get stacked).

As played I definitely don't like the river shove. On a double-paired flush board with a K, I don't think it is realistic to hope for villain to call with 99-QQ. If the villain has a K he might call, but the only realistic K is AK (calls flop bet, but also sometimes 4-bets pre, and as you mentioned you block it). So I think you just have to check call river to pick off bluffs assuming villain bluffs enough. Honestly against a true loose passive I check fold river all day, and expect to win a lot when villain checks back.

Anyway, you ultimately just misread the villain's tendencies when you were assigning a range. It happens to the best of us There's nothing to do but adjust our assumptions for next time.

I agree with most of what you said except that PIO isn't good to rationalize our plays in such situations. Once you have a good sample or read on a villain it is definitely gonna be good to make some adjustments, but for a case like this where it was the first hand I played vs him I would definitely play as close to GTO as possible. I didn't shove because I assigned him that range, I tried to play the hand as I would against an anonymous player, by my comment of misinterpreting his tendencies I meant moreso that if I knew him to be so wide I wouldn't do it than that I did it because I "put him on 99-QQ". Not sure how much sense this makes but I didn't try to deviate just because of what I thought he had, I was mostly wondering if this was theoretically too thin to shove and (less importantly) if there was another line others would have suggested, which is mostly what I got as responses.
I appreciate the comments and would appreciate it even more if someone cared to run a sim to check the river spot. The one adjustment I did make that I generally do at live games even with no reads (because players I've played with so far are very passive in general) is to not protect my checking range as much because I don't think they'll bluff enough - otherwise I agree this would be a nice hand to check and bluff catch. But if this is too thin does that mean we can only shove flushes and boats for value?

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What ranges do we use to solve the spot? If we use solved preflop ranges for HJ open vs. SB 3-bet, then our results will be drastically different than if we approximated actual ranges for what you would actually 3-bet and what he would actually bet-call with pre. That's my point about PIO being of limited use. It's not that the spot can't be solved, it's that the solution is entirely dependent on the assumptions (ranges) that we input.

GTO ranges. I know they are not actual ranges in play but I'm wondering if it's at least a fine line in theory since we already concluded that in my situation it was bad.
A 3bet pot with normal sizings 100bb deep should have similar SPR as the one in game so it would probably be close enough. My guess is we need As to jam and check call the rest?

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What is PIO

You have an SPR of 3 going to the flop with AA in a 3 bet pot, you can stack off on virtually any board so don't sweat it. Bet/Bet/Bet definitely fine and might be preferred line OOP, not such a fan of your sizings but dont sweat it, just make sure you are balancing this line with AQo type of bluffs

Hey,
I looked into GTO wizard for a "100BB effective 6-max SB vs HJ situation" and your hand jams 80% of the time on the river.

However as GreatWhiteFish says we need to assume very different ranges...I assume everyone is just pretty wide.

Also if you're thinking that 100BB deep and 140BB deep should have close to same lines, I would reconsider.

On the flop 100BB deep you can basically do anything you want (checks 30%) but 140BB deep Im thinking a lot more checking. Lower pairs arent going to stack off 140BB on most run outs so we should be looking at two streets of value. Not much protection to be had since you have AA and draws will not fold to any type of bet. 99-JJ/QQ bet frequently to fold out hands like KQ/JQ etc.

Given flop bet, on the turn mostly checking, and on the river...I don't think villain will find enough bluffs here so check/fold or block/fold. Very dependent on what lines were taken earlier streets. In the games I usually play:100 zoom I would curse and throw it away lol.

A very tough spot for sure.

Thank you, looking back I agree block folding might be the best play. On the flop I would check more often if I had As but given what I thought his range looked like and the SPR I just wanted to stack him basically but in reality it probably is too thin on that runout.

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