This is more of a hypothetical question

5/10 2k max 9 handed

First time playing in this casino and just sat about an hour ago so no deep reads. Villian in this hand "seems" competent, but no history to back that up. Young guy, played a few small pots in late position. No hands shown. I probably have similiar image. The game overall is definitely most easily described as dead.

~1800 effective

I'm dealt AK UTG+1. Folds to me and I open for 40. Two more folds to villian in the HJ. Villian calls and everyone else folds.

Flop (95): A K T

I bet 60, villian calls

Turn (215): T

I bet 140, villian calls

River (495): 4

So final board of A K T T 4

I bets 270, villian raises to 1100 leaving ~ 500 behind.

I took a few seconds and before folding, thought this was a great spot to ship it if we were deeper. I'm just not really sure how deep we would need to be? Like what's the bare minimum that we would still need to have behind in this spot to comfortably push it in? I say comfortably cause I think this move gets a fold like basically always at certain depths (but obviously not actually always) and I think it even gets a fold a quite a lot at relatively shallower depths (I swear I almost shipped it in this exact spot cause it just looks so ****ing strong and puts even the top of his range, except quads, in a disgusting spot, but thought better of it and mucked)
So how deep would you want to be and why?
Or am I just being overly optomistic about this spot in general?

I’d never 3b bluff shove this river with AK. Seems pretty bad, esp when he chooses this sizing (nuts or air).

I think you would have to be raising at least another 2k to try to get him off a straight or boat. But I wouldn’t do it. His line is just way too strong. Unless I know him to be super bluffy on missed draws I’m just going to lay this down.

This.

River is C/C or B/F.

Idk I kinda disagree this is necessarily a polarized spot.
I think giving villian a value range of TT (1 combo), ATs (2 combos), KTs (2 combos), QJhh (lol slowplay), one combo of the other QJs that he didnt raise the flop with, ATo and KTo are probably being mosty folded pre but idk lets be generous and give him like 6 of those 12 combos, QJo is also probably mostly being folded pre but say he calls 6 of the 12 combos pre and doesnt raise the flop with 3 of them (numbers out of my ***), and then im not really sure if I should give him any Txhh for value, it does seem out of line with this sizing but I think we can give him like QThh and JThh. Thats 18 value combos. He doesnt have a lot of bluffs, pretty much just missed hearts cause I dout he ever turns Ax two pairs into bluffs but maybeeee he does with a couple AQ/AJ combos, we'll give him 2. Out of like 6-8 hh combos we'll say he turns 4 into bluffs. So that's 6 bluff combos. A river 3b with tbd sizing is FORSURE folding out everything up to KT, which is like half of his range (13 of the roughly 24 total combos). I realize he not have as many bluff combos as I estimated but even if he doesnt I'm pretty confident that a lottttt of villians with this guys vague description are gonna lay down KT and AT pretty damn often too (with the right sizing). Wouldn't you? Getting 3b on the river by an UTG+1's uncapped range?!

I dont think most players are going to be raising 4x vs your bet here with KT/AT. If they were, it'd be a lot smaller. Big sizings tend to be more polarized. If he raised like 2.5x-3x, it's a little different.

A "competent" player here isnt raising anything less than a full house here for value; he'd just call down with a straight/trips. Some weaker players might raise QJs/trips OTT, but even then they aren't call/call/raising 4x river with QJs/trips OTR.

You can't just randomly assign 6/12 ATo/KTo/QJo combos arbitrarily... especially with what seems like a "competent" player. And let's say he does have 6/12 of those combos per. That doesnt mean he plays them this way 100% of the time taking this line.

Big question is why are you trying to make people fold full houses or the occasional straight? You do not make money in poker by trying to make people fold big hands. 99.99% of people arent driving to the casino to fold full houses.

How deep? I was playing 5-10 1500 cap once and was in a similar situation.

I think it went 3 way to the flop and I had AA as the PFR. The board ran out AT344. I had check called the flop, check raised the turn, and bet the river. He raised the river to about 1100 and I jammed for a little more than 4k more. He folded TT face up after about 5 min. He was also the biggest nit at the table, in his 60s and probably not used to playing that much money.

Not exactly comparable, but people do fold full houses. How much to comfortably ship? You could say 10k would be more comfortable than 5k more, but it's probably suicide.

I might like it if you were going after an old nit, but a young guy with no history? Young = unpredictable

I really dont like your line. Anyone with half a brain knows you have AA here everytime and nothing else, especially if the board was rainbow.

You probably could have won a lot more from him. Also, lots of hands can call you otf that would check back for a free turn.

He might not have folded if he raised turn, you flat, and you x/r bug otr. Or he raised flop, you x/c turn, x/r river. In his mind you should have A4 at some frequency

So iyo his only value in this spot is AA/KK/TT? Seems pretty tight and unlikely considering theres only one combo left of each of those and two of them (AA/KK) would had to have been slowplayed pre which is also unlikely (although slightly moreso since people sometimes flat premiums vs early openers, but still). Basically youre putting him on quads or the ocassional slowplayed nut/2nd nut boat? Are you giving him any bluffs? Why isnt he going 4x with KT/AT?

I understand, but it wasn't necassarily arbitrary. Since he's basically an unknown, I was trying to get a rough estimate on his range and I based it on my experience playing with players with his image. Ime these hands are folded more than anything else, accounting for 6/12 combos. And ime ATo is played more often than KTo, so i gave him 4 of ATo and 2 of KTo, accounting for the other 6/12 combos. I did QJo separetly and stated that I was being "generous" (giving him more of these combos then may actually be present) with all of these for arguments sake.

I understand this as well, thats why I said "he calls 6 of the 12 combos pre and doesnt raise the flop with 3 of them"

I think that statement is mostly true, but not always. It's very situational, and I think this is one of those less common situations where money is very often going to be made with a river 3b at the right stack depths since we do not have anything close to a maniacal image, have a range advantage, and since people in general are going to be playing crazy tight in this spot once we make the move.

I'm not sure why you think AK makes a great bluff hand if you were deeper as blocking AA/KK isn't that relevant as he's almost always 3bet pre with those (well I mean he should be at least)

Also his range in this spot should be 1 combo TT,1 combo ATs, 1 combo KTs or a bluff - but of course he's gonna have KK/AA some non zero % amount of the time. But one could argue that if you were much deeper he shouldn't even be raising KTs/ATs (esp this big) OTR.

Can't believe no one has got it right so far

Correct answer OP is

I really don't see you getting three streets of value here. He can easily fold everything but AK+ and not be exploited. Maybe if you check turn you can get some hands to bluff turn + river.

^ yeah good point.

I guess agreeing with the troll should be a sign I am being too optomistic. But ya.. I agree.. thats enough ******* to make any man unsure if he could handle all that ***.

Agree with bold but I dont like checking turn with a high frequency.

Honestly Renton gave you the best piece of advice in this thread because it's a mistake you don't even know that you're making, as proved by your above post.

The question here is why are we betting the river at all? The only worse hands that could consider a call here is AQ. That being said, the villain called the flop and turn, therefore AQ is the only hand that would have gotten to the river here that you beat. You only have a bluff catcher on this board, check the river, before betting ask yourself what hand can my opponent have that I am trying to get value from with this bet.

You could bet twice and check river, bet flop and check turn, or make 3 smaller bets. Bet flop check turn has the added benefit of giving you a 100% equity hand on most rivers, which is a great situation in a game with a format that allows betting more than pot.

Check/call turn and potentially check/shove river. Betting 3 streets is too thin.

Who on earth is raising the river with QJ here...?

AK actually isn't a good hand to bluff here in a hypothetical where you're much deeper and managed to find a bet on the river, since there's not much point blocking AA KK, which opponent is unlikely to have. If you want to bluff, you want to do it with Tx, since that blocks quads and AT, and is the most efficient blocker.

Realistically, even AT and KT are fairly thin raises by the opponent anyway. I don't think even turn is a standard bet by us, really.

Villain flatting AA/KK pre is definitely not inconceivable.

I don't see how "not inconceivable" makes "unlikely to have" untrue.

Even we assume AA KK gets flat sometimes, Tx would still be a better bluff it'd still be low frequency. Furthermore, if villain has a lot of AA or KK in their range, that makes bluffing with AK even worse, since it adds more combos in their raise range that never folds, even if we do block them somewhat with AK.

You realize all Ax two pair with TT is a chop right? AQ is not the only hand that gets here that we beat (although AQ/AJ are the mostly like SD hands that we beat cause of TP+gutter)

Sexy post.

C/c crai?!?! Thats sexy too.