Playing in a home game where there is a straddle and the pro decides to make it 80 blind (not a live straddle so he does not have the option). He is stuck about 15K so far tonight, is drinking heavily, and had to take several breaks throughout the night after bad beats and what have you. He is the only pro, there are a bunch of recs (including myself), and he probably sees me as fairly ABC but the solidest of the recs there. I have about 8000, he covers (cause he bought in for a bajillion)

Folded to me on the button, I make it 220 with xx, folded to him on the 80 dead raise, and he calls (his calling range is pretty close to ATC). This is an unusual hand as most hands are seen 4-7 ways, so heads up is a rarity here.
Pot is 510

Flop is 887

Check check

Turn is J

He checks, I bet 330, he calls

Pot is 1170

River is K

He bombs for 2000

What's our calling range, what's our raising range (and which bluffs do we want to throw into our raising range if any)?

Maybe im the only one but i hate these range threads. What's your hand?

Yeah this is a weird spot. Good bluff raises are hands like J7s that didnt bet flop (not that he should have JJ but we block J8), As7x that didnt bet flop, AsX/KsX in general. Vs that sizing we dont have to defend very much unless exploitatively you think hes overbluffing this spot. Therefore i feel like the bottom of our calling range could be as high as 8x/flushes and maybe we even get to fold some 8x. Not sure if a low flush or 8x makes a better river call as im not sure exactly what hes repping on the river, mainly flushes with some boats?? Idk

Overall weird spot. After he check calls turn he really "shouldnt" have too many flushes as very low fds without a sd arent profitable calls ott but if hes truly playing like a maniac then ranging him is a little futile. In which case maybe 8x makes a better call than a flush.

You should be probably betting small w a very hi frequency on this flop
River calls should be like kx w a spade blocker 9/10 that you checked back and some 8x you checked back
Pocket aces w the as would looks like a nice call

Yeah i mean river spot totally depends on our flop strategy. If we are mainly betting flop with a small sizing and very rarely checking (like 25% check or something) then we might have to call river with some hands like KxXs AxXs JxXs KxJx as we wont have enough checked back fds and 8x. But overall just remember we do not have to call very much vs this huge 2x pot lead from villain.

I'll put my hand in spoilers for those who want to discuss the actual hand I had.

I think you're hand is extremely relevant in this spot as flop is a slam dunk cbet, unless vill is literally floating you with any over. My calling range in this spot is basically AJ and some random kx hands since everything else I'm cbetting flop with.
Its actually a tough spot since I think vill has both lots of air hands, a couple value hands you beat, and probably every spade combo and a few boats. I do expect most 8x hands to lead turn, but it's still possible as tilt makes us do weird things.

I guess he's repping some flushes for value on the river so I think T9 with a spade makes it into our call range but if you think he's repping boats or bluffs (flush draws may bet turn, xr turn, or xf turn if they're low fds) then we can fold T9 as pairs and 8x make better calls.

If we want to use a more linear calling strategy then I think T9 may be too high up in our distribution to fold, even vs a 2x pot bet. Either way it's not a great spot.

Obviously betting T9 on the flop is +EV but so is checking and we should absolutely be checking back some T9.

i think cbetting sets this hand up much better given dynamics and stacks imho.

never raising this deep and definitely expecting to lose a decent amt. as for bluffs, I guess KJ? I am not going to pretend that I have some eloquent bluffshove range vs a drunk steaming pro that bets 2x pot otr tho.

I'm not raising with anything but boats, nuttish flushes, or pure air if I think he's fos.

I call with all of my good but not great hands, yours included.

Assuming you called, I really like how you played this. NH.

Yup, card removal is so important, I wish these type of threads were automatically locked. The scope is so broad and if I write a long response I would essentially be providing a high-quality coaching response for free, and the op might not even appreciate its value

He is down 15k, likely tilting, views you as solid i.e. a bluffable person, called close to ATC preflop. You block a spade and beat all his bluffs. What more do you want? Snap it off! Ez call of my life.

i like these threads because these are most of the hands we see at the poker table

we watch the action and when the player is tanking we can think about what the minimum hand we can call with

i actually think you need a straight with a spade as minimum, call with all flushes, 8x is close, king jack is a fold

this is just kind of a wierd hand that doesn't come up that often but i do like the xx threads where we can identify the minimum hand we can call with

also, he's going for fat value here, don't be fooled by this, this is a FAT VALUE BET imo trying to win some of his money back, if he wanted to bluff he could go way less

A strong pro is going to make a "fat value bet" with his bluffs as well as part of a balanced 33% bluff range. He's only going to do it in situations where a 2x value bet makes sense as well, though.

So while I disagree with your premise that this is a value bet because he could have bluffed for a smaller amount, I actually agree that this feels like value here because I don't think this is a good spot for a 2x value/bluff.

If he's really a pro, and he's good, I don' t think he's going to be that affected by the downswing even though that's a lot to lose. There are some players who make a big production out of their drinking in order to try to play tight and still get action. It's really important to figure out if this guy is really tilting or if he has a fake tilt which is part of his overall strategy. Most pros don't really tilt or know when to get up because they couldn't make a living if they did.

That being said he should be bluffing about 33% of the time against a normal player and more against someone with a smaller calling range. It's a tough spot but if you fold there it seems like you might be folding close to 100% of your range unless you're also going to check back the flop with spades or better which I obviously don't recommend. I just don't think many of the hands that beat you are very plausible, KK or JJ he's raising pre-flop. 78, J8, K8, 77, 88 you're probably at least getting raised on the turn if you're that deep. He also probably thinks you don't have JJ or KK or probably spades because you would have bet the flop, so I think if you fold 10 9 with a spade here you're basically folding 100% of your range in this spot. This guy had better than 2.5 to 1 to call the preflop raise so he could have anything especially if he thinks he has a skill edge and was again offered better than 2.5 to 1 on the turn so I think honestly he might think you're kind of a beginning player and not likely to think the hand through with bet sizing that small.

A balanced approach would be to call with any decent king or better.

Only raising with K8 and better. I'm never bluffing a drunk guy on monkey tilt after he overbet the river. His bet is very polarizing to either a full house, flush, or garbage. Since he is on tilt and is playing ATC preflop, there is a pretty good chance he is over bluffing here. It wouldn't be ridiculous to call with as weak as ace high.

I'm not sure what his bluffing hands he typically chooses though so maybe only call with Jx and better just to be safe.

From a balanced approach, I think my hand is ideal for a call. It is high up on my absolute strength, and I do block a spade. It is kind of a weird spot, because he's more capped than I am. I can have boats and quads (I guess I might check back JJ or KK or 77 or 87 on the flop, and definitely 88) but he really can't. I don't think his line of check, check/call, then lead is ever going to happen from a boat. Really he is capped at flushes. Therefore, I actually think from a balanced perspective, I should actually have a fair number of bluffs to balance out my boats and the rare quads. Maybe having a J or a king is helpful, but again, I'm not sure how many boats I need to block given that he can't really have any. Maybe having A in my hand would be good for a bluff

From a exploitative perspective, I agree that this sizing sure doesn't seem like a bluff to me. It seems like trying to get max value out of value hand to try and eek back to even after getting buried in the game. I don't know if he is really going to be able to fold a value hand to a raise given how stuck he is, so we may not want to bluff with ANY hands as we will likely get paid off on all of our boats anyway, so no need to balance.

Anyway, I think 109 with a spade was a call, and I made the call and he showed me A3

Evaluating a player’s tendencies and bet sizing tells, as well as stuck/tilted table dynamics is the key to winning at incredibly slow live poker.

Here is what I see. A player who knows you know he is on steaming tilt. And knows you are trying to get him to spew off.

So he bets huge for value with a flush knowing you are already in call down mode. Very easy fold. You lose to a million flush combinations.

If he was bluffing he would triple or double barrel bet 3/4 pot ish at a much cheaper price for him, and then it would be an easy call down if he took such a line.

Another point to consider: he has committed very little and shown no aggression until the river. Put in something like $330 after the flop then suddenly $2k. That makes no sense as a bluff line to me.

Sounds like you were able to consider a river raise which is good. I doubt he is folding an ace high or king high flush on the river given that you checked the flop. So good decision not to raise him as a bluff.

And lastly, in general overbets just like river raises are rarely non-nutted, even from capable and not afraid pros. With the primary exception of true and rare thinking pros versus players they perceive as scared money fish.