Ya we're saying he doesn't have Ax that isn't a boat
Yeah again this is the problem with an exploitative approach. The second your assumptions are wrong you start losing crazy amount of ev. We don’t know this for sure but why wouldn’t he shove a10 for value after you check ott. The second you can start beating some of his value shoves this call is super easy
Last edited by lolposting2016; 05-25-2018 at 03:33 PM.
Yeah again this is the problem with an exploitative approach. The second your assumptions are wrong you start losing crazy amount of ev. We don’t know this for sure but why wouldn’t he shove a10 for value after you check ott. The second you can start beating some of his value shoves this call is super easy
Pretty simple: you're playing against a population, not against a player. The population has a boat way more than the pot odds % of the time here, so you fold. Whether your assumptions about the player are correct is irrelevant here.
Yeah I mean the issue is that villain could just think you have KK/KQ or a weaker ace or something and just be going for it with AJ or a chop. I don't expect much A9 in his range so realistically you're only losing to AQ/QQ/99/44
The points above about being able to b/f some KK, Qx etc resonated with me for a moment, but I honestly don't even think we bet them otr. To get called by what, JJ/TT? What's our worst valuebet? AJ or AT, a lot of those combos just calling pre?
we bet 33% flop and checked the turn. of course we're value betting kk, kq on the river.
To call and be profitable here, villain needs to be bluffing more than 42% of the times.
Will this old man bluff so much in this spot? I doubt so.
His range smells heavily of Ax or QQ or 99 that completes a boat somehow. It is hard to think of any bluffing hand that he may have that will make such a play here.
Since it is not likely that he is bluffing as frequently as we want him to, we fold.
I'm OK with the smaller flop bet when he pretty much never has 44 and you hold the effective nuts. We're still trying to extract value at this point. I also agree with also betting the turn. V is going to continue with most of his Ax hands at this point. I'd honestly just bet like 33-40% of pot for 3 streets and fold to a river raise if it gets to that point. If you go hard all the way through and he raises he's got AQ or QQ 100% of the time. I don't see any reason to get fancy this hand.
