Game is a private NL 2/5/15 Mississippi

Villain - Older gentleman who's only been in the game for about 30 hands but has been fairly active. Never played with him before so no more relevant reads. Villain has no reads on the hero.

Hero (stack $1800): Button Mississippi for 15
Villain (stack $2500): SB for $5

Preflop:

Villain: Raise to $55
Folds to Hero on button w/ AK off: Re-raise $175
Villain: Call

Flop: AA4 (rainbow)

Villain: Check
Hero: Bet $110
Villain: Call $110

Turn: AA4Q (rainbow)

Villain: Check
Hero: Check

River: AA4Q9 (rainbow)

Villain: Check
Hero: Bet $325
Villain: Raise All-in
Hero:???????????

Would love to hear everyone's thoughts on specifically if you should call or fold the river. Feel free to comment on the turn play.

Thanks!

Bet/call river. With the straddle, you aren't that deep.

Old guys do dumb things too, he could have AJ/AT/AX and some spazz ****. Yes you're beat sometimes but if you're only calling with full houses, Villain could bluff you relentlessly.

On river you can bet/fold some AX, KK, QX

^^^^My first thought.

Your hand is way under-repped with the line that you took. So, sigh, call. This game sounds good/fun. Hopefully the rake is reasonable.

Yeah I’m not folding trip A With nut kicker for 100bb in a blind war.

Also villain has been active? And we checked the turn for deception? More reasons to snap call.


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Even the most active players have very tight ranges in SB vs Mississippi straddle so I wouldn’t be shocked if you’re beat by QQ or AQ but once you check back turn it seals the deal that we are getting it in no matter what. Plus we aren’t deep enough anyway

It sucks that this is one of the best hands we take this line with and all, but I expect to be beat really often here, especially by an older dude. If you get vibe that he has no idea what he's doing and somehow thinks he's value shoving AJ vs your line or something cuz you checked once then maybe. The flop was rainbow though, so he's even more unlikely to be bluffing with the absence of FDs. Of course it's a call in theory and all, especially if you generally keep betting your boats ott.

The points above about being able to b/f some KK, Qx etc resonated with me for a moment, but I honestly don't even think we bet them otr. To get called by what, JJ/TT? What's our worst valuebet? AJ or AT, a lot of those combos just calling pre?

Why are U checking turn for he’s probably not bluffing but any other ax could play this so u don’t rly have a bluff catcher. Pretty str8 forward call and reload if ur wrong
Turn is the big issue u should be betting like 1/3-1/2 pot and then you can just jam river yourself for slightly over pot

Given that villain raised from early position, wouldn't AQ be a large part of his Ax range, especially since he's an older guy. What do we do if he reraises turn? Give him credit and fold? And if he just calls fire away for value? I think that's the best line myself.

As played I live read player but most likely fold. You have all the ace full houses in your range as traps and in my live experience it's rare for players to shove this big without a boat. And if he had AJ/Ax why would he shove? Wouldn't he minish raise to get a call from your pp or smaller ax? And if he was bluffing why would he put it all out there when raising 500 more would be just as effective as a bluff. Unless he has you nailed for queens full or something.

ya this

as played im lol folding the river. I don't see enough bluffs or worse for value that didn't lead river.

Such an easy fold without reads ! If he plays like AJ like that, you will get his money later. Otherwise, he probably has 0.0 bluffs in his range.

Hi German I don’t think we can be making such an exploitative fold when he has worse value hands in his shove range especially under the guise that you wil “get his money later” in live poker when u play 50 more hands w him at the table anyway

Your sizing (small) and line to me look more like KK/JJ/TT than Ax, so he very well may value shove with a worse Ace. I think if we check the turn (which I wouldn't), we have to bet/call river here. Pot is laying us 2-1 (~$2400 to call $1200) and I think we are good 33% of the time. I call.

Have changed my position
Folding this hand in a 3b pot is beyond ridic
You should just be bet bet shoving anyway and not even being in this spot

The key is that he is essentially a readless old man. I rarely see old men just shove AX in this spot or turn their hands into bluffs. These types tend to give you credit when there are 2 aces on board for a monster, even with the turn checkback, and if he had Ax he would be more likely to make it 500 more for value than shove, because in his mind what are you calling a shove with that he beats?

There are some old man gambler types that do shove Ax without thinking about what you have but readless I don't think this is worth 2 to 1.

AQ, QQ, 99 are all a large part of his calling a 3bet range from early position. Is he really the type to turn 1010 JJ 88 into a bluff or shove AJ/A10/ fearlessly for value hoping you hero with a pocket pair?

It's not really a useful river spot to put much thought into cause like you said we shouldn't even be in this spot. But I'm definitely folding and I know its a super lol bad exploit in fact I think i'd fold pretty quickly

I was at borgata one time playing 2/5 and I caught a wheel on the turn the same time a third diamond came out. An old man bet into me, and I folded pretty quickly without putting another cent into the pot. Sure enough, what did he have? a flush. Old men, and sometime old women usually have it in these spots unless you've seen otherwise

Bet turn, fold now.

Renton this is a pure call dude folding would just be silly

It’s such a disaster to fold the best hand here

I get what you're saying and I understand that my entire argument is exploitatively based, but I really don't think you're going to end up seeing a worse for value shove here as frequently as you think (if ever). In fact I'd be surprised if villain has any hand except AQ or QQ.

I understand that this thinking is extremely flawed and it's not my baseline approach to poker. Maybe it's a huge leak to make such huge exploitative adjustments based only on the fact that it's a 2/5 game and the guy is old, especially because we have no history. I don't know man, but I'm definitely folding.

lp2016, you're over-analyzing. The range vs range is irrelevant. He check raised a river on an AAxxx board. A vast majority of players will have a boat every single time when they do that, regardless of how the hand played out. And there are plenty of boats to put him on.

I don't get why villain would check twice here with a huge hand. Can he be so sure that hero will bet the river? And for more than he would call?

I mean you could just run crev or pio and give villain only ax and boats and see the ev of call vs fold I’d guess ak probably doesn’t print but it’s close to 0% fold

Ya we're saying he doesn't have Ax that isn't a boat

Agree 100%, it sucks we put ourselves into this spot. But the way it played Villain could think he has the best hand here with many holdings that we can beat. I also think it's rare that a hand that strong would not try to get any value on any street, especially on the river after you've checked the turn. Many are suggesting that with the lack of hand history to go with the "old man" read but I don't think you can put too much stock into stereotypes in these spots. If it was a super close 50/50 spot maybe let that push you one way or the other but the OP said he didn't have a read but the guy was active. And we played it weak / small...