Queens facing significant flop action
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 666
This is a hand from my regular 1/3 game.
Villain is a young Asian guy who is mostly ABC but tends to overvalue draws and bluffs a lot. He has $700.
I'm doing well for the night (up $1.5k) and wake up in the CO with two red queens.
MP opens to $25, 1 caller, I raise to $100, V in SB calls, everyone else folds.
Reasoning: The game is generally running very deep and loose. $25 is a standard open (and the opener is a known loose player) and anything less than ~$75 is likely to get calls in multiple players.
Flop: 4s, 7s, 9c
V donk bets $100, I raise to $300, he shoves for his remaining $500, I call.
In this situation, I'm pretty confidently ahead. V's preflop range is capped (he'd definitely 4-bet KK+) and I doubt he's cold-calling $100 with two-pair combinations. Thus the only hand I'm really afraid of is a set (9s being most likely).
However, I highly doubt he'd donk bet a set given that he knows I'm very likely to c-bet a flop like this with nearly 100% of my range. Instead, this looks a lot like a combo draw (ex. As9s) trying to get me off my holding or build a pot for when he hits.
When he shoves, I'm even more confident that he's on a flush draw trying to fully realize his equity. I call.
Is this line crazy? Should I be more reticent about GII with an overpair on this flop?
Results to come.