A buddy (hero) asked me about this hand, but as primarily a limit player, I have no clue and do not trust my opinion.

Live 2/5 NL (Effective stacks = $1k)

UTG straddles to $10, 2 callers, hero makes it $40 with 9s9c from CO and gets 4 callers. Pot = $200 (it's probably more like $195 after rake).

Flop KcTc9h. utg+1 checks, hero bets $150. The button called and utg+1 called. Pot = $650'ish.

Turn is Qs. utg+1 checked, hero checked, and button shoved for $545. utg+1 flats with $120 left behind!...

Hero wound up folding thinking it would be a pretty bad bluff/shove on button's part with just a flush draw (he could check and still probably comfortably get it in if a club rivers). He also figured utg+1 couldn't be drawing, but my question was, if he wasn't, then why wouldn't he put his last $120 in to charge hero?

Mathematically, the fold seems correct with card removal and reasonable assumptions about both villain's hands. But my thought was that if you're ever going to fold, then make a smaller bet on the flop (around 1/2 pot?). My buddy pointed out that his sizing on the flop was so that he could comfortably shove all blank turn cards.

Lastly, I'm wondering if betting the turn would be completely idiotic v. two opponents and a 4 straight on board? In limit, this is often the correct play, since we're at the very top of our range anyway and why can't we have AJ? But then, it's also a ridiculously easy call if raised. My point is that if I had any doubts about folding bad turns, I'd either a). Bet smaller on the flop, or b). Bet the turn myself and call a shove, rather than check and be put to a really close decision. This could be REALLY wrong, which is why I'm posting the hand.

I'd appreciate thoughts/advice, and what the important concepts to be thinking about are on all streets.

Thanks

Don’t like the 3b

Fine as played

Where was the 3b?

Open bigger, like to 50-60.

AP call and bink, EZ game. If the math is correct the pot is 1740, 545 to call or 3.19-1. We need 23% to call but only have 22% equity. But if we take into account the final 120 for the other player, we only need 20% to call.

I think he's considering the $10 straddle as a raise, so making it $40 is kind of like a 3b.

Our equity might not be what it first appears after considering card removal. Many of the cards that fill us up go along with any jack that makes a straight such as KJ, QJ, and JT. So it becomes more likely we don't have all 10 outs. I haven't Stoved it, but this should reduce our equity to below 22% I would think. I could be wrong tho.

What do you think of the sizing on the flop? And can it ever correct to bet the turn?

At first I thought it was math call but it's actually a math fold on the turn, nh.

I think check is better than turn bet. Ranges get a bit more complicated since villains probably raise a part of their straights on the flop or might not flat AJo/JT/J9s/QTs every time on the flop.

If they fold Jx hands on the flop, this turns into a marginal call.

Sorry misread hand ignore my 3b comment