Quote:
Originally Posted by recfish
Really? Pros don’t go all in with two pair here if they hit two pair on river? He is not a serial bluffer but I feel he could bet thinner than just q10 here for value especially against me who was a little call happy during the session...
He's shipping 1.5x pot on the river. It's a polarized bet. Either he's got no showdown value, or he's got the nuts. Timing is important. Anybody can snap-jam with the nuts, but it takes a lot of preparation to think, as you flat the turn overbet with 7d6d... "If he checks the river, no matter what it is, I'm gonna ship it."
Also, what 2-pair does he get here with? He's on the button after you flatted, after just seeing you flat a 3-bet out of position with 22. He's squeezing you with a 3-bet for sure with AKo or AdJd. That leaves Ad8d, maybe, as his only realistic 2-pair hand.
So even *assuming* that villain is capable of 1.5x-ing the river with air, and *assuming* villain also ships the river with 2-pair, targeting a KJo holding... villain gets to this river and bets like this with three hands: QdTd, Ad8d, and 7d6d.
So if those two assumptions are correct, your call is profitable, because you win 2/3 times. But you and I both know those two assumptions are horse****. He's not snapping in 1.5 pot with 7-high. He's also not overbetting the pot with Aces and Eights, because that hand isn't at the top or bottom of his river range. He'd try a more reasonable value bet.
Even if it's just "he's never bluffing" and we can narrow his range down to QdTd and Ad8d, then we're only winning half the time and the 1.5x river bet to us is a fold.
Finally, why are we checking this river? A set is still a set and there's one reasonable hand that beats us. I think the river is a half-pot bet/fold.
Last edited by mrtoodles; 06-26-2019 at 07:01 PM.
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