Quote:
Originally Posted by iamallin
Would you fold kk to the 5 bet? You need 40% to stack off here. If he doesn't have ak or qq, kk is only about 23% against his range of kk+.
It's a huge mistake to talk in absolute terms about 22 combos when ranges are this narrow, and you're doing it both ways here. In terms of weighing his range, KK is a coinflip against KK+/AKs and 50% of AKo/QQ, whereas AKo is 35% against those. What we're really protecting against is him being able to ship bluffs with impunity, and KK is doing far better against any bluffing range than AK is.
In terms of weighing our own range, you're talking in absolute terms about whether we should shove 2.1% of hands or 0.5% of hands. It should be obvious how that's a huge mistake. Assuming we need to continue like 45% here, the former of those can sustain a 4.7% 4bing range, which is almost a 20% 4bing frequency in this spot and is like TT+/AK/AQs/A2s/T9s+ all at a 100% frequency, which is probably overkill. The latter can sustain a 1.1% 4!ing range (which would be like a 4% 4!ing frequency), so you're getting exploited even if you only 4! KK+/AKs.
It's compulsory to call KK and AKs at the very least. I do like to get away with as much 4!ing as I can here, since SB is going to have a super linear range because it's such a ****ty spot for him to flat much, so I like to continue with AK/QQ when possible. You could sustain a 15% 4! percentage by iso'ing <25% here and calling with QQ/AKo like 25% of the time, so that's pretty groovy if you ask me.
Incorporating an overlimping range would be a total game-changer, as you'd be isoing far less of your fold-to-3! range, but obviously that would leave the top of your range compromised.