2100 effective

Villain - good reg, plays bigger and plays PLO when it runs
Limper - 50yo, high vpip passive fish

CO limps
BTN Villain 50

Hero SB 190
CO fold, Villain flat.

J96r

I see many arguments for check, bet small, and bet big. I think check is best from a GTO standpoint, but betting big might be better as an exploit vs the player pool. In game I split the difference and decided to small bet.

Hero 140 Villain call

Turn 9x

Again a bunch of different sizes can make some sense, but this time we decide to check. Villain has way more 9x than us, and now his Jx is close to drawing dead. His straight draws are going to start bluffing now, so not a lot of reason to put more money in the pot ourselves.

Hero check Villain 440, we call. (might be ok to fold here as a pretty ridic exploit, I'm sure some of you guys do, would be curious about this)

River Tx

Hero check Villain shoves 1240.

Pretty clear fold IMO, is anyone calling? Even though we are folding close to full range on this river, I think folding is still correct since villain can comfortably shove all A9s K9s Q9s, boats, 87s, the occasional KQ that plays this way (15 combos min). The most obvious bluffs are QTs KTs (only 6 combos), and I doubt the player pool shoves those 100% freq, even tho they should on this runout.

Bet flop bigger, bet turn, as played I might call against described villain, but that is not a great river, so I could also find a fold.

Kinda put yourself in a tough spot with the turn check as that opens the door for a tough opponent who may float a lot of flops to try and take the pot away from you. As such, he might end up with some weirder hands on the river than you would expect, but that 10 definitely gives some of them the best hand.

whats your image like? any idea what he thinks your range looks like after you check turn/ any reason he might think you fold ~all of it vs b/jam? imo for river to be close he either has to be a) peeling flop really wide with the intention of barreling or b) betting turn with hands like QJs/88 with the idea of often following thru on rivers (which i assume he would only do with some specific read).

id bet flop bigger (~225), probably just keep betting on turn but dont hate checking, and as played would fold river.

i think he can also have 98s/97s for value and T8s and potentially T7s/75s as bluffs on the river, in addition to the hands you mentioned. seems likely he would play KQ like this almost always.


at the risk of being pedantic, im not really following why betting small would be splitting the difference? im also not sure i agree with check being best from gto standpoint here

Not folding.

Bet flop much larger

Bet turn

As played I prob fold but maybe not it's close

I won't be folding my whole range vs b/jam, very river dependent. On a river this bad my contention is that its fine to fold all my overpairs.

I would be very surprised if pio plays flop as a pure bet, will run some sims later with a couple diff ranges and report back. Basically I thought that this hand doesn't want to go 3 streets, but wants to make the pot bigger vs a lot of hands, and most of the hands that we keep around by betting small have little equity against us. A bigger bet makes the pot bigger now, but also denies equity to a bunch of hands that we don't really care that much about denying equity to on the flop. As an exploit, he may call with those hands with poor equity anyway vs larger bets.. hence my question.

Checking flop is pretty good because we have a bunch of hands that want to check/fold. So checking this hand protects our checking range and is especially good because we don't need to deny equity to hands like AQ ATss A8s etc. Its more exciting to bet KK/QQ because we want to deny equity to those hands, and we also block some of his better draws which makes it less likely that we get raised otf (which is a disaster)

Our flop play also depends a lot on how often he is raising this flop and with what hands.

Check flop sometimes but we can do a larger bet on the flop when we do bet. I think 1/2 pot is totally fine.

As played turn is ok but I prefer betting.

River is meh. As played I fold. Not a bad spot to fold cause he'd have to be turning some pair type hands or floating extremely wide pre and otf to be bluffing enough here. Also we block floats from Axs bdfd bdsd etc.

If I bet turn and he called, I would b/f riv I think.

right, my point was only that for villain to reasonably have enough bluffs here for this not to be a fold, he would probably have to have made some non-standard turn bets with an expectation that you would often overfold rivers. if you don't think that is the case (which seems reasonable), then i agree that you can fold all your overpairs on this river.

id be interested in seeing the results if you did end up running these. i generally agree with this, but i think we differ on how large the fraction of his range is that is doing very poorly against us and would call a small bet but fold to a larger one. we also block half the combos of Axs hands, which seem like the most likely hands to fall into this category.

mostly agree, and i wouldnt really be surprised if pio had us checking this some of the time. i think the stronger parts of our range are more concerned with charging his pair+backdoor hands than denying equity to ATs etc though. i would personally expect him to raise this flop very little, but would definitely be interested to hear if/why people disagree.

If you check the turn it's in order to shove over his bet. Check-calling just turns your hand face up for no reason.