Quote:
Originally Posted by jvds
whats your image like? any idea what he thinks your range looks like after you check turn/ any reason he might think you fold ~all of it vs b/jam? imo for river to be close he either has to be a) peeling flop really wide with the intention of barreling or b) betting turn with hands like QJs/88 with the idea of often following thru on rivers (which i assume he would only do with some specific read).
id bet flop bigger (~225), probably just keep betting on turn but dont hate checking, and as played would fold river.
i think he can also have 98s/97s for value and T8s and potentially T7s/75s as bluffs on the river, in addition to the hands you mentioned. seems likely he would play KQ like this almost always.
at the risk of being pedantic, im not really following why betting small would be splitting the difference? im also not sure i agree with check being best from gto standpoint here
I won't be folding my whole range vs b/jam, very river dependent. On a river this bad my contention is that its fine to fold all my overpairs.
I would be very surprised if pio plays flop as a pure bet, will run some sims later with a couple diff ranges and report back. Basically I thought that this hand doesn't want to go 3 streets, but wants to make the pot bigger vs a lot of hands, and most of the hands that we keep around by betting small have little equity against us. A bigger bet makes the pot bigger now, but also denies equity to a bunch of hands that we don't really care that much about denying equity to on the flop. As an exploit, he may call with those hands with poor equity anyway vs larger bets.. hence my question.
Checking flop is pretty good because we have a bunch of hands that want to check/fold. So checking this hand protects our checking range and is especially good because we don't need to deny equity to hands like AQ ATss A8s etc. Its more exciting to bet KK/QQ because we want to deny equity to those hands, and we also block some of his better draws which makes it less likely that we get raised otf (which is a disaster)
Our flop play also depends a lot on how often he is raising this flop and with what hands.