Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 99
5/5 Commerce, villain 1 (btn) is middle aged Asian male with sunglasses, villain 2 (sb) is older Caucasian male. Hero is mid 20s caucasian male. Almost no reads as this is only my third or fourth hand at the table.
Hero opens 25 utg+2 with KsKd.
Btn and Sb call.
Flop 9c8c2d (Pot = ~80)
Sb checks
Hero bets 40 (I contemplated checking for range purposes but want to charge flush/straight draws and protect my overpair)
Both btn and sb call
Turn 4h (Pot = ~200).
Sb checks
Hero checks
Btn bets 85
Sb calls
Hero calls
River Jd (Pot = ~455)
Sb checks
Hero checks
Btn bets 170
Hero calls
Btn wins with 99. Is this just entitlement tilt w/ KK here? In my session <~24 hours prior to this, I had been extremely card dead for a very long period of time, so maybe that was a factor. I any case, I'm struggling to justify my river call here other than pure payoff wizardry. I put club draws in his range during the hand, but in retrospect I really don't think he's going to be barreling many FDs into two opponents who have already shown strength -- maybe just combo draws if any.
Value combos: 99 (3), 88 (3), 22 (3), 98s (3), T7c, QTc, maybe 44/JJ? (3?)
So if he has 17 value combos on the river, when he bets 170 into 455, I need to be right (aka he needs to be bluffing) 170/795 = ~21% of the time for this to be at least a break-even call, so he needs at least 5 combos of bluffs/hands worse than KK here.
76c and 65c immediately come to mind (busted combo draws), but the J on the river means that a lot of his other combo draws now have showdown value (QJc, JTc, etc.) and would be inclined to check back the river. 2 combos doesn't seem like enough. Would he play TT like this? AJc? At this point I'm grasping at straws.