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5/10 River Sizing 5/10 River Sizing

07-17-2019 , 01:47 PM
Hero is new to the table, young image (mid 20s, look possibly younger)

V is MAWG and has made a couple "painstaking" folds where he has given people credit for a good hand, both pre-flop and post-flop (face down, don't know what he folded each time). Never played with him before

Hero UTG+2 AThh. Folds to us, raise to 30

4 callers including V (CO) who has position on us

Flop: 8h6h6x ($150)

Hero x, V 75, Hero calls rest fold

Turn: 8h6h6xJx ($300)

Hero x, V $100, Hero $325, V calls

River: 8h6h6xJx9h ($950)

Hero: $700. V tanks

Thoughts on (i) river sizing and (ii) turn raise?
5/10 River Sizing Quote
07-17-2019 , 07:56 PM
1. Big bet. Do you expect to get called? I wouldn't expect a call from anything worse than 6x, and maybe not that, depending on the player. You say he folded other hands, assuming his opponent was good. For that reason I'd size down.

2. What draws are you betting otf? If you say you're betting QThh and lower, J9s, T9s, bdsd/bdfd or better, I can get behind not betting flop. You did gain some equity with the one liner, so, sure.
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07-18-2019 , 11:20 AM
I don't understand your turn play and what you were trying to accomplish there. Not like you picked up additional equity and your raise size will never fold out anything V would bet turn with. Also, if he shoves, you throw up.

River sizing seems fine and I am fine with flop check with our entire range.

Also stack sizes would be helpful.
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07-18-2019 , 12:07 PM
Please include stack sizes as it would help us help you . Not knowing eff stacks, it's harder to assess the HH properly.

V took the lead immediately on a paired board. V must realize H has all the NFDs and dominant overpairs here. I cannot see how he can do this without 6x, a probing vulnerable overpair or the gin nuts 88. H called, repping NFD or overpair. H folds all spaz and overcards.

His 100 lead into a 300 pot seems like a weak probe, but it's fishy. With 6x, he should bet way bigger unless he's a poor player. It seems like he's deliberately pricing in your NFD. And would he overcall or jam H with 6x?

I don't like H's turn raise because V could play back and jam you off a great draw. I'd prefer to flat to maintain more bluffing options for the river. We don't have FE vs. 6x with this turn raise anyway, we fold out weaker FDs and get called by better. Now the pot is huge. I worry his overcall is stronger than his jams here.

H's river sizing offers V over 2-1 on a call. Had we flatted turn, V would be facing a very tough decision getting worse odds if we missed the FD on river and jammed anyway. AP, it worked out ok as V has to crying call off his 6x at 2-1.

There's 3 88 out there and 4 76s/65s. It's too early for champagne. We've seen him make big laydowns so he's a little MUBsy. He's probably wondering if you have JJ or a straight flush, not wondering if you have a flush.
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07-18-2019 , 02:33 PM
Thanks for responses

Sorry for omitting key info, my river bet put him all in (just about)
5/10 River Sizing Quote
07-26-2019 , 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanishmoon
Please include stack sizes as it would help us help you . Not knowing eff stacks, it's harder to assess the HH properly.

V took the lead immediately on a paired board. V must realize H has all the NFDs and dominant overpairs here. I cannot see how he can do this without 6x, a probing vulnerable overpair or the gin nuts 88. H called, repping NFD or overpair. H folds all spaz and overcards.

His 100 lead into a 300 pot seems like a weak probe, but it's fishy. With 6x, he should bet way bigger unless he's a poor player. It seems like he's deliberately pricing in your NFD. And would he overcall or jam H with 6x?

I don't like H's turn raise because V could play back and jam you off a great draw. I'd prefer to flat to maintain more bluffing options for the river. We don't have FE vs. 6x with this turn raise anyway, we fold out weaker FDs and get called by better. Now the pot is huge. I worry his overcall is stronger than his jams here.

H's river sizing offers V over 2-1 on a call. Had we flatted turn, V would be facing a very tough decision getting worse odds if we missed the FD on river and jammed anyway. AP, it worked out ok as V has to crying call off his 6x at 2-1.

There's 3 88 out there and 4 76s/65s. It's too early for champagne. We've seen him make big laydowns so he's a little MUBsy. He's probably wondering if you have JJ or a straight flush, not wondering if you have a flush.
Pretty much this, though I am not enclined to consider anything other than value betting river once we got there.
pre sizing should be bigger
eventhough our hand playability suffers from the fact that we got 4 callers, one should at least consider cb'ing that favorable flop at a certain frequency and get easy folds from hands that might be dangerous on later streets
Imho turn raise is not in the "don't like" zone but in the "you are sadly exploiting yourself by doing that" zone.
As played, river bet seems fine and mandatory

Last edited by swissodds; 07-26-2019 at 09:20 AM.
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07-26-2019 , 11:13 AM
been thinking more about this hand and do appreciate responses. Some questions I've been pondering

- When I do decide to c-bet here, I plan to c-bet pretty large (3/4 pot at least)
- If i get flop c-bet raise, do we commit to a 3b and ready to stack off? I think so, but the amount of times V will show up with 88 bothers me. This might be better on a slightly different board like 865hh. If we bet flop, we hate getting raised (call and 3bet both feel bad) which is why I'm still struggling with a flop bet
- Flop bet does set up easier turn play for x/c or x/r

Turn raise. I've also been thinking here, with the benefit of hindsight and responses
- Obviously it is a bit difficult to choose THAT bad a line here OOP with the NFD (albeit, paired board) and pretty sure all solvers will show this spot as a mixed strategy (though maybe I took the worst line)
- My reasons for raising were very V-dependent. I thought I would have fold equity given he seems to be MUBsy
- His turn stab was weak, and J is a good card for our range vs. his flop continuation range (barring the dreaded 88). Even against 88, he has to now fear JJ but goal would never be to push him off 88 (although, I think it could be possible since again he seemed MUBsy)

X/c probably the cleanest option. But what do we do when we hit our river? overbet donk?

Last edited by SandFish; 07-26-2019 at 11:25 AM.
5/10 River Sizing Quote
07-27-2019 , 09:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandFish
- When I do decide to c-bet here, I plan to c-bet pretty large (3/4 pot at least)
I agree that this texture is probably fine for your range and you can support that sizing with bluffs but I think suited Ax with flush draw and overs probably doesn't belong in your c bet range. I think it's just got too much equity and gives you some combos you can defend on later streets. So I like the flop play as is.


Quote:
Originally Posted by SandFish
- If i get flop c-bet raise, do we commit to a 3b and ready to stack off? I think so, but the amount of times V will show up with 88 bothers me.
I mean depending on the stack size and villain I don't think you have many hands that want to pile money in on this flop. Especially mw. You also have a tough time choosing bluffs that feel comfortable stacking because not too many hands you can have with blockers to villain's gii range.


Quote:
Originally Posted by SandFish
This might be better on a slightly different board like 865hh. If we bet flop, we hate getting raised (call and 3bet both feel bad) which is why I'm still struggling with a flop bet
I think the paird board is more beneficial for your range than that board but agree that with 856 there are a lot more bluffing candidates.


Quote:
Originally Posted by SandFish
- Flop bet does set up easier turn play for x/c or x/r
Do you mean just because of SPR? Not sure why a cbet would make the turn any easier otherwise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SandFish
- Obviously it is a bit difficult to choose THAT bad a line here OOP with the NFD (albeit, paired board) and pretty sure all solvers will show this spot as a mixed strategy (though maybe I took the worst line)
I would assume the higher the kicker the less mixing it is but don't work much woth solvers. I would have to assume something like A-wheel card is a better bluff because it has more hands with better equity it can fold out and doesn't have 2 cards to make a higher pair than the board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SandFish
- My reasons for raising were very V-dependent. I thought I would have fold equity given he seems to be MUBsy

- His turn stab was weak, and J is a good card for our range vs. his flop continuation range (barring the dreaded 88). Even against 88, he has to now fear JJ but goal would never be to push him off 88 (although, I think it could be possible since again he seemed MUBsy)
I don't think the J significantly shifts the board into a range advantage for us, especially to the point where we should be c/r. You could probably mix in some lead betting on certain cards here


Quote:
Originally Posted by SandFish
X/c probably the cleanest option. But what do we do when we hit our river? overbet donk?
Probably balance betting as big as we can to get called by worse hands with the frequency with which we get calls. I doubt shoving would be good here with a paired board on a bunch or runouts, dpending on how much you have left obviously.
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