Seems like an easy fold given his sizing. If he bet 500, you would have a decision.
Also in this spot, any 2 card flush, of which you can have plenty, will be better call than t high one card flush. He is repping As ..very occassional Ks ...so 78ss blocks more of those combos than ts9c..using removal effects, KxTs or AxTs will also be better calls than ts9c ...because it would mean fewer combos of kk and aa with a spade for villain to show up with on the river
Also ..I think he is letting go of his one pair hands that don't have a spade on the turn if he really thinks you are nitty..
And weak regs don't turn 2 pairs or overpairs into a bluff on this runout
It would take a jungleman to call you on the turn with kk no spade and bluff the 4 th spade on the river once you check ( a very interesting pad hand he played against berkey)
Another point to consider is if you were the aggressor on previous street/s, check over folding on a few specific rivers isn't that bad. For villain to profitably bluff you on those rivers, he would have to float you with hands that have low equity against your value range on earlier streets. So overall he would still be losing since these rivers don't occur as often ..and he would be burning money if his game plan was to just outplay you when he does get such a favorable river and concede the pot to your bluffs and value bets when he doesn't get such a favorable river ( which will be 80% of rivers in this example)
nh I think turn is actually only interesting street not sure if we wanna bet or x
Do think turn sizing isn't so optimal tho. Think u wanna bet much bigger if u do decide to bet
