Villian is the only player besides me playing lots of pots and bluffing. He has about 7k and i cover.

V limps utg+1 (seen him do this a couple of times before) player to his left makes it 40, co calls and I call from bb with 77.

Flop (165) AQ7 with 2 hearts. Checks all around.

Turn (165) 3r. I lead 60 and vill raises to 250 and I call. My reasoning for calling was that vill has way more bluffs and semi bluffs then hands that can call a 3 bet.

River (665) 3r. I check and vill bets 1k ???

2600ish? maybe 3k

Turn I mostly agree with you but I think I’d still 3bet just because our particular hand is so strong, I’d rather just use AQ/A7/A3 to trap.

As played you really only lose to exactly 33 so go ahead and raise (2.3-2.7ish) even if it’s pretty much impossible for you to be bluffing and will rarely get called by worse, there’s nothing more tilting than your cool river overbet getting raised in front of an audience. Even if he always folds A3 correctly or just had some dumb bare ace he was trying to chop bluff with it could be distressing enough for him to possibly tilt in later hands.

Gonna say the obv you should raise the turn
Villain can have lots of aces up, he can be fsdr like AJ, Axhh. Or just be playing draws well / decide on river
The river can change this board a lot, if you think you need to, would rather protect your range with AQ
But you should have many decent Ax combos / combo draws

Seems like you have an in game read that he’ll fire rivers with his bluffs?
Are you calling a 2x pot on hearts, K,T or J?


As played for him to call a raise you’ll need some major leveling where he confuses himself with 3xhh or AQ and limits you to a few value combos. I don’t think sizing matter vs those hands
The crux is ur at a dangerous stack depth and can’t eliminate 10 combos that beat you

If it’s friday raise, if it’s sunday flat

whats the point of playing 7k deep if you cant raise this hand?

Lmao where you at the table? Playing this deep is a bit more nuanced then that, and I'll be the first to admit I'm not that great at it.

I like the call on the turn. It keeps our range wide.

River, I like a small raise as we really don't have any bluffs here, just try to get a crying call from A3s or 34hh type hands.

3's aren't crying when they call.

Obv raise, size depends on what V thinks your range will be when you check raise the river, and on what hands he'd be playing like this - I'd think either 2.5x-3x raise (like Apricot Jello said) would likely get called if V has a hand, say AQ. I guess you could bomb it and hope V reads it as a bluff

Of course V could have quads or an unlikely Queens full but I'm sure you are playing this hand as the likely nuts.

raise to $2600 is already a pot-sized raise, $3000 would be an over-raise... depending on table dynamic either might be a good bet... but any larger doesn't really add much fold equity... so sizing larger simply reveals more hand strength.

$2600 - $3000 is a good range because hero has enough behind he looks like he can fold (if villain wants to bluff) and if villain chooses to 3b, he has to go all-in.

I would lead turn for a bigger sizing. I dont mind calling the raise on the turn but I can see merit for a 3b as well.

As played river the decision is easy. We raise, but yeah the sizing is interesting. I feel like at 700bb stacks we run the risk of isolating ourselves to villain's 33 and weirdly played QQ AA if we jam. I think 2600 is definitely a fair size. But if we get jammed on I am folding.

I thought I was leading turn for half pot but miscalculated how many players called. On the river I think raise/fold is much better then raise/call until I see some crazy stuff.

Against many live players I'd agree with raise/fold but you did say "Villian is the only player besides me playing lots of pots and bluffing". Assuming you did raise a normal amount and he reraised would you lay it down against this player? Or would there be enough doubt to call it off given that he might think you were bluffing with your check raise or might be playing A3 as the best hand.

there is absolutely zero chance anybody on earth shoves river over your 3b with worse for value and I've met like 2 ppl in my live career capable of turning A3 into a bluff otr (or whatever piles riv as a bluff) seems like a trivial b/f.

Teph you are probably right. My hesitation to bet fold is recency bias I guess - two nights ago I played with a would be slag who could be one of your two people - I'd never raise fold in this exact situation against someone like him

Pretty sure one of those people where in the game I was playing, but it wasn't this guy. I actually think the vill in this hand lays A3 down a least a small % of the time.

OK I'll say it. I am channeling my inner Ray. Call river. When he polarizes with this river sizing he will have an easy laydown for all worse hands.

hm...i misread the post earlier thought villain was pfr
when villain limps in EP
his hand range for turn raise (33, 3x, A3, Q3, fd, gutshots, total airball)
river's overbetting range doesn't change
raising is the obvious answer on the river
the question is what to do when he shoves over us

Lol I misread hand too