Quote:
Originally Posted by KT_Purple
this game starts at 250 bb's deep and is often well above that. it's not unusual to see multiple 500bb stacks in this game. at some point it does become unprofitable to shove second set, tho i don't know if 280 effective is enough, it can't be much more than 300bb where we should not go broke without the exact nuts or drawing strongly to the exact nuts. At what stack depth is it ok to just call?
possibly you aren't playing in very very deep games but i'm pretty sure v1 folds everything but 99 or 22 if i shove and i already discounted 22...willing to wager he NEVER plays a flush draw like this
To your broader point, yes once you start playing really deep, stacking off 2nd set becomes dicey in certain situations, but not on a wet board. When draws are present, hand equities run very closely together, and it takes a **** ton of betting rounds before ranges get narrow enough to consider folding second set.
Think about it using the example in this hand. The flop is 2d7c9c and you're facing a bet/raise from a range that includes value hands and draws. Even if that value range is so narrow as to include only sets, there still could be enough draws such that you can raise even 22 for value. So then you'll raise and you'll balance with a ton of draws yourself. And because draws have such good equity, you can add a lot of draws to your range.
Then it'll be back on him, and he'll know that because you can have a ton of draws in your range, even if your value range is only sets, there might be enough draws for him to raise even 22 for value and balance with a ton of draws.
Now of course, just like in any situation, one player likely has a weaker range and will need to start calling/folding their weaker holdings. Then the other guy's range will become the weaker one and he'll need to start calling/folding his weaker holdings. And the ranges will narrow to the point where you can only bet the nuts for value.
On a super dry flop like A72r this process happens very quickly because ranges are so polarized that dropping even a few bluff holdings dramatically increases the strength of your range. That's why there's a strong incentive for non-nutted hands, even ones as strong as second set to just call and keep bluffs in your opponent's range.
But when hand equities run so closely together, this process happens much more gradually, and in this example, you'd have to be extremely deep to not end up all-in before the time comes when you're facing such a narrow range that you can't raise 77 for value.
Now of course, all of that is very theoretical, and when it comes to this hand in real life, players are not playing optimally, and if V1 is not raising draws, then yeah, maybe it makes sense to not raise 77 for value.
You obviously know the player better than me being in the hand, but I think it's a bold claim to suggest that he
never plays a flush draw like this. Players do weird **** sometimes, especially fishier ones, and I think you're better off avoiding using absolutes when describing player tendencies. For similar reasons, we can't completely rule out 22 either.
So I simply don't agree that he will never pay off a 3bet with a worse hand than 77. Aside from draws and 22, he seems like the type that would have a very hard time laying down an overpair.
Tl;dr is 3bet the flop and you should always feel comfortable getting it in with a set on a drawy flop