Villain (2100) 1 is a fish type who was muttering under his breath after I raised his limp with Q8s, queen in window and I fire all 3 streets to take it down on Q2379 runout. He claimed he had TT.

He's adjusted to the table by opening to 50 and hasn't limped anymore

Villain 2 (covers) is a decent, tight solid, somewhat creative reg, definitely beats the game since he's always playing and is youngish. Probably perceives hero as a winning player but not extensive history between us except that he ran a three street bluff on me for a megapot when I had to fold a combo draw that turned into second pair but he shoved the river and showed a worse flush draw with no pair. Other than that he is one of the tighter regs.

Not sure how to range him in this hand.

V2 raises from MP2 to 50

hero (2800) 77 raises next to act to 140

this should be enough to isolate him as he raised 5x didn't feel the need to go much higer

V2 flats button

Pot (420)

279

V1 checks, Hero bets 185 (inducing), V2 calls, V1 raises to 400, Hero calls, V2 calls!

Pot (1600)

Ranges please?

I won't talk about preflop because you're clearly making some very severe exploitative adjustments but I will say that this would definitely not be my default line with 77 facing a 5x open MP vs MP.

Just 3bet the flop

Not my default either but V1 does not have a light 4bet range and his sizing has no foundation, so I'm never giving up the best hand when he 4bets and playing in position HU vs a fish should be at least breakeven here. I don't think he even 4bets AKo pre and I can actually save money when behind with the initiative as he probably expects me to fire all flops when actually my cbet % is going to be low

50 was his std open

V2 is strongly weighted towards strong FDs, could also have 99-QQ.

V1 likely weighed towards draws as well, could also have 22/99 with some chance of randomly spazzing given the history.

Agree with most of this but 5x raise from v1 with 22 doesn't seem plausible. He has 99 more often than 22 imho, also might play high overpairs like JJ or QQ just like this too but if anyone has FD, its V2

Turn (1620)
8

V1 checks, hero checks, v2 bets 675, v1 folds

Hero has a little less than 1700 in front

I guess call. You're getting exactly the odds to draw to your boat.

Easy call on turn. Not 3betting the flop is criminal

I know it's at least a call on the turn but what about raising? If I just call can I c/f a blank on the river with only 1K to win almost 5K. I will be getting stupid odds to call a river bet, so c/f unimproved on the river seems weird. Also, the 789 on the flop is blocking a lot of the flush combos I'd expect him to have here as he flatted a 3bet pre

Our hand is just not strong enough to raise here. That would be silly. What else can Villain have here besides flushes and maybe 99?

Also what do you think his 3bet flatting range is? I think his 3bet flatting range is more likely to be hands like AcQc, which is very much unblocked.

Yeah but vs AQcc I have outs. Also don't see him just calling the flop with top set. I liked v1 for 99-QQ here, which is why I did not re raise the flop. Felt he would fold all hands I beat and call with all hands that beat me on this stack depth. However, if I flat there are a lot of cards I believe he will continue firing that I beat on the turn. Obviously I risk having this scenario some of the time but we are deep enough that shoving the turn might be a
free roll for v1.

Honestly I don't know how to pin down v2s range but check/folding unimproved
seems extremely risky on the river even if a 4th club hits

On the other hand I'm not sure if he would check back some rivers or shove all of them

You have outs which is why we should call, but he has a flush here close to 100% of the time. If we miss river, it’s an easy check/fold.

probably true,

thanks

I've never flopped a set on a wet board, got raised, and then didn't try to get it in on the flop. I'm pretty sure that isn't bad/exploitable.

I mean I think V2 does have some overpairs in his range after he calls flop. But I expect those hands to be checking back the turn..

this game starts at 250 bb's deep and is often well above that. it's not unusual to see multiple 500bb stacks in this game. at some point it does become unprofitable to shove second set, tho i don't know if 280 effective is enough, it can't be much more than 300bb where we should not go broke without the exact nuts or drawing strongly to the exact nuts. At what stack depth is it ok to just call?

possibly you aren't playing in very very deep games but i'm pretty sure v1 folds everything but 99 or 22 if i shove and i already discounted 22...willing to wager he NEVER plays a flush draw like this

To your broader point, yes once you start playing really deep, stacking off 2nd set becomes dicey in certain situations, but not on a wet board. When draws are present, hand equities run very closely together, and it takes a **** ton of betting rounds before ranges get narrow enough to consider folding second set.

Think about it using the example in this hand. The flop is 2d7c9c and you're facing a bet/raise from a range that includes value hands and draws. Even if that value range is so narrow as to include only sets, there still could be enough draws such that you can raise even 22 for value. So then you'll raise and you'll balance with a ton of draws yourself. And because draws have such good equity, you can add a lot of draws to your range.

Then it'll be back on him, and he'll know that because you can have a ton of draws in your range, even if your value range is only sets, there might be enough draws for him to raise even 22 for value and balance with a ton of draws.

Now of course, just like in any situation, one player likely has a weaker range and will need to start calling/folding their weaker holdings. Then the other guy's range will become the weaker one and he'll need to start calling/folding his weaker holdings. And the ranges will narrow to the point where you can only bet the nuts for value.

On a super dry flop like A72r this process happens very quickly because ranges are so polarized that dropping even a few bluff holdings dramatically increases the strength of your range. That's why there's a strong incentive for non-nutted hands, even ones as strong as second set to just call and keep bluffs in your opponent's range.

But when hand equities run so closely together, this process happens much more gradually, and in this example, you'd have to be extremely deep to not end up all-in before the time comes when you're facing such a narrow range that you can't raise 77 for value.

Now of course, all of that is very theoretical, and when it comes to this hand in real life, players are not playing optimally, and if V1 is not raising draws, then yeah, maybe it makes sense to not raise 77 for value.

You obviously know the player better than me being in the hand, but I think it's a bold claim to suggest that he never plays a flush draw like this. Players do weird **** sometimes, especially fishier ones, and I think you're better off avoiding using absolutes when describing player tendencies. For similar reasons, we can't completely rule out 22 either.

So I simply don't agree that he will never pay off a 3bet with a worse hand than 77. Aside from draws and 22, he seems like the type that would have a very hard time laying down an overpair.

Tl;dr is 3bet the flop and you should always feel comfortable getting it in with a set on a drawy flop

just have to go with your instincts i suppose, I just happened to eliminate FDs from v1s range based on his raise sizing, and 22 from pre, so I'm not always ahead here. 99 is a distinct possibility and I felt i needed another card to assess

just calling the flop is unusual but I just don't expect recreational players like this to ever push a draw very hard here (raising when it's just so profitable to call and close the action) and his sizing is so value heavy that I can't put him on anything but a made hand...he has a very very narrow range here and one of the main hands he has is 99

I know that v2 is SUPPOSED to have a flush close to 100%, what bothers me is that the 789 on board blocks a lot of the combos he calls pre and the rest are combo draws he should be pressing harder OTF. I don't see him having a suited gapper in his range pre like QTcc but its surely possible.

In short, this feels like it's not a flush 100% even tho it should be and from past experience with villain he will not check back many rivers

I think rec players will bluff with draws more than you think but YMMV. the sizing is bad for a bluff, but it’s also really bad for a value hand. Odds are he’s just not good at sizing and I wouldn’t read too much into it.

And honestly even if the 3bet is value neutral vs. V1, that is, he beats us as often as we beat him, it’s still worth it to get value or deny equity from V2.

The part of your post that still confuses me is when you say V2’s flush combos that he would call pre are blocked. Are you really expecting him to cold call a 3bet with T9s? That’s pretty loose. When a player you describe as pretty tight cold calls a 3bet, I have his range as 88-QQ/AQ+, maybe a slowplayed AA. Maybe some hands like AJs or JTs make it in there, but that’d be rather loose IMO.

yeah, he's got about 7K behind and he's gonna to press his small edges pretty hard imho. I think 9Ts is in his pf flatting range, certainly TJs. Those hands are pretty valuable this deep. I think he definitely has those hands in his pf flatting range, but not 8Ts. it's gonna be a very tight range tho, just suited connectors and pairs i think. possibly not the low ones like 34s but if he has a flush right now it's restricted to a straight flush or drawing to a straight flush, or it's the nut flush that he almost always presses harder OTF imho

good news is that if he has the nut flush i have outs!

such a small subset of flushes in his range here. I count 5 combos and I'm drawing dead to 2 of them...so while calling seems correct on first glance and in the heat of the moment, isn't there more overpairs plus club combos?

another thing that's interesting about this hand is that I'm the one that looks like I have the clubs and villain is the one betting. This is exactly how I could (and probably would) play nut club draw, so I'm the one with more flush combos! His flush range is capped and mine is not

also, one of villains strengths as a player is he knows the math pretty well as far as his bet sizing and knowing his implied odds in this spot. he could have read us as weak here and probably shoves a lot of his combo draws with over 1k already in the pot and the re-raiser being the shorter of the 2 stacks

. that means if he had a flush draw it was not a combination draw, leaving, well, not many flushes imho

On preflop, even if he has 7K behind, you only have 2800, and he's cold-calling a 3bet for 140. Doing that with T9s is probably fine given OR is a fish and because we're super deep, but it's certainly not standard, and I wouldn't describe a player who does that as "tight".

On flush combos, I count 10 if we give him 54, 65, JT, QJ, QT, KT, AT, AJ and AQ. That of course implies an extremely wide preflop cold-calling range, but seems like that's what you're implying.

He can have overpairs after calling the flop, but I'm expecting him to check all those hands back on the turn. They're not really getting value at this point. Turning an overpair like TT or JJ into a bluff here would be a really creative move, and if V2 likes to get fancy, that's a possibility, but I would expect the vast majority of players to check back and try to get to showdown, especially with a fish still in the pot.

As for your flushes, I'd be surprised if you weren't betting most of your flushes on this turn. Slowplaying those seems bad with a fish in the pot who could easily have a set that could draw to a boat.

I count 6, JTcc, 56cc, QJcc, KQcc KJcc, 45cc, we are drawing dead vs 2

calling with those hands is pretty standard in this spot for villain imo, he won't give up a chance to stack someone with those hands on his button and he can definitely flat big pairs too but i don't know what he had so I'd have to ask him lol

all of the other flush combos gii OTF imo

Again, you obviously know villain better than me but seems like you're making some arbitrary distinctions. Why would he gii on flop with KcTc but not KcQc?

And yeah he might gii with AcQc or he might take a more passive line.

I'm recognizing a consistent flaw on your thinking which is that you make very firm assumptions about what players will or won't do with certain holdings whereas you should be thinking probabilistically.

It's fair to say that V2 is probably raising with NFDs on the flop, but you can't say that with 100% certainty unless you're a mindreader. Calling or raising are both justified and for all you know he may even be playing a mixed strategy where he does some of both.

Same goes for V2 never raising with FDs. You just can't take that for 100% certainty.

actually he should have just 2 combos of flushes and many more overpairs imo.

but you are saying that calling with anything that makes a flush on this board is not standard pre flop then giving him those hands in his range now

KTcc flatting to a 3bet pre seems significantly worse than flatting with KQcc and even calling with 9Tcc

seems like ignoring those small details isn't like villain, he's pretty precise, I believe he has more a lot more pairs in his pf range than anything that makes a flush here

anyhoo