V is MP, we’ve played together a few hours. Younger woman, takes lots of passive lines and has limped with garbage like A7o, KT, etc. Has donk-led twice, once with a ton of strength (jamming over PFR raise, no showdown on dry flop) and once where she x/f next street. May think I’ve been out of line with postflop aggression. Still, I haven’t seen her run any big traps nor big bluffs and she’s shown down very few hands.

BTN is a strong reg I don’t want in the hand, blinds are weak.

I am in CO with QTss. $1500 effective with MP, ~$3K effective with BB
MP limps $10, I raise to $40, SB calls, BB calls, limper calls.

Js 9c 8c flop. Blinds check, MP leads for $60, I raise to $350, MP calls.

Jc turn. MP leads again for $300. Hero?

Is this fold just way too tight? I know I can have way more nutted hands here (lots of x+flush draws on flop, J9, and I feel like even AJ would be a better calling hand here than QT no clubs.) Hating the idea of folding for this price. That said, I don’t really want to call here and face a river bomb.


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Forgot in OP i will ofc also have 88/99 here.

Villain could have worse imo, like AJ, KJ with that bet size. I call and see what happens on the river. Probably calling a small bet on safe rivers.

A normally passive player calls a massive raise, and then fires out a confident bet when all sorts of draws get there. She's obviously representing J9 or J8 or a flush. 99/88 seems less likely but possible with a passive player OOP.

You can only beat T7, and Jx, and the latter has 10 outs to fill up.

Vs. this villain, and the fact that no card can possibly make your hand stronger, and any club or another paired board is an auto-fold, I think you may as well fold now and save your $300.

Only thing we beat is JT and AJ and that's pretty optimistic. If you didn't raise so big on the flop I could see calling the turn bet, but it's like 70/30 we aren't good on this turn.

In game I probably call - but if villain is really this passive a fold is better.

I would end up folding the river to a big bet, but saving $300 is huge on the turn.

I generally never like to underestimate villains but this just seems like one of those spots where a fold would be best.

Fodl

I really don't understand the huge raise on the flop even it's a wet board. As played, I think fold on the turn.

some joker bets like 40 pct of the pot to try and buy a cheap free card

his raise isn't huge- it's 10 dollars over a pot size raised on a super wet board with a monster hand.

Turn is basically worst card in the deck for you. Given your PS flop raise, I don't see any hand that you are ahead of donking this turn card. Not enough info on V to continue profitably. I fold.

flop raise, especially since I’m not closing the action, has to be super standard. I have the nuts on a super bad board facing two cold callers where equities will change on many turns.

to other commentators: I agree with folding turn and that’s the line I took irl. Just wasn’t sure if I’m supposed to find calls here without soul reads on V but that might just be me sweating the result:
V rolls T8hh.

A week later I see her sitting at $2/$3 while the $5/10 played short handed so I may have just been owned by someone who moved up for a day.


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Wow she stuck the needle in too by rolling over the bluff. Gross....

You've got to call turn, only need like 20% equity and you'll see random hands like she had or Jx often enough.

agree its a solid raise size i like it. turn is a bit meh obv, but whatever.


i just dont fold here for $300 far too cheap, its hard to make full houses. turn fold is not great.

I haven't played live poker in a decade so maybe I'm out of touch, but I'm surprised everyone thinks it's a sign of strength to donkbet a board-pairing turn card (or any other turn card for that matter). I've always thought the opposite. (And yes, I ought to have posted before results were shared.)

lol @ folding a flopped straight against a fish with spr of 1.2.

lots of people don't like to play short handed.

and if she normally plays 2/3 nl it makes it more likely she had it.

Incoming posters to berate the fold after results are shown. Oh no way there's a results bias


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Actually the opposite is true.

Alot of people got this line of thinking from online / playing with weak regs. There is a however a huge difference between a weak reg and a rec/fish.

When a weak reg or someone on tilt takes a line that makes little sense, (or donks or w/e) it is often a bluff.

Recs/fish very often bet when they have it. Sometimes I would let my mom watch me play, and in certain hands where I'd flop a set for example she'd go "oh, you should go all in right?"

If you think about it, their logic is somewhat sensical. Big hand = start putting money in.

The trick is to understand when fish are merging (with a hand like AJ here for example). They do this alot and it is surprisingly tricky.

I would fold turn readless pretty quickly. However, with the provided reads, I would definitely not fold turn. She has donk led twice in 60 hands. Thats alot. And one was followed with a x/f.

That said, people make more mistakes calling in these spots vs fish than they do folding. Even with that lol sizing.

The bet sizing in this spot is irrelevant. You have enough equity based on the given information to make jamming or calling a hypothetical donk shove more profitable than folding. Even without the history, just given the line this opponent took makes jamming more profitable than folding.

People put way too much faith in their (very bad) population reads. "Oh her range is flushes + boats, you're drawing dead. What's that? She had 10% equity, drawing to a chop at best? Well in theory she's never ever bluffing or value betting worse. Good fold." Explain to me why it is not the case that AJ, KJ, QJ, JT (30 combos, more than reasonable flushes) are in her range with this exact line.

I agree with this mostly. But if they take this line of thinking, they usually take it all the way. Big hand = put a LOT of money in. Very few fish look down at a set of 9s on this board and leads for less than half pot. Had she pot/pot it, its a very different hand.

I actually wish the results wernt posted because you lose a lot of credibility, but I think this fold is truly terrible. I think you get shown a flush occasionally but otherwise are just never behind.

ime when lower stakes players (all recs and most “pros”) start shoveling money in, they have it. Occasionally they don’t and you get shown a ridiculous hand but they will almost always have it and folding every time is +EV.

Now “having it” is, of course, relative. Some bad recs look at this board and think 2p or a straight is the nuts. So you gotta sort that out.

All that said, I stand by my fold post. I also think calling turn and folding river to a reasonably sized bet is fine too bc a lot of recs will get scared and shutdown on river without the nuts. Actually i would prob do that here rather than fold the turn

+1. It's a live game. Never folding this turn. Only w/ some very specific read would I consider folding.

I mostly have always played online. 13+ years. Whenever I play live I call in spots I never normally would simply because a lot of rec/live players merge their ranges to the point I don't think they even know if they are bluffing or value betting. 3rd barrel (depending on sizing) would get me off my hand, but not folding this turn.