Live 5/10

Hero has a bad image, losing several hands at SD and non SD, down 3-4 bi , but known as a winning reg to table. 2k stack.

V = 4K stack , Good winning LAG, plays higher stakes, has a good 3b % but not overly Aggro.

Hero raises 30 with 99 in CO. Button calls. V raises 130 from BB. Hero calls. Heads up.

Flop: J J 10 ( rainbow) V bets 125 , hero calls.

Turn: 4 . V bets 210 quickly. Hero thinks and calls.

River: 5 (no flush). V bets 475 pretty quick.

Hero - bluff catch? Or are we never good here on the river?


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I'd fold turn

Call down seems fine.

Not sure there would be a river bet this large if your opponent had QQ/KK/AA. He'd probably check call. Although depends how bad your image was I suppose.

Calling down seems fine your not left w 2 many hands to call down w assuming you raise trips+
Calling range is like qq/10x and this hand seems a little cuspy. Guess you should mix call/fold from a theory perspective but if you wanna play exploitatively some reads could help
Turn is an easy call tho
Also knowing something about his cbet strategy should help. Like is he the kind of guy who's cbetting ak on this flop or is he gonna try to show down a hi?

i call down when villains post flop agg frequencies are very high / villain is WEPSy / hardly ever check/raises / hardly checks

as described i dont know if this is our huckleberry even though he's described as LAG simply because you put "good" in front so I'm going to assume his betting frequency on a JJT board isnt absurdly lopsided to A2Cs.

If we play a hypothetical level war: villain knows this board makes it harder for him to have a J so betting, assuming he think you realize this as well, might make you call a little more liberally as he reps thin. So it is a smart move to bet here with a good LAG image w/ value more often.

However the above is still somewhat insignificant until the turn barrel which is where I think I start letting go of 99 as you are blockings some % of semi-bluffs villain can have assuming his 3bet from blinds is wider than a standard TT+/AQs+

Im not even going to touch on balance here i think its unnecessary discussion as to what is most likely happening.

I think river is a fold as played, triple barreling this texture seems iffy since you should have a lot of value hands that can call down

Raise/fold turn is kind of an interesting line

Tripling off with JJ+ makes 0 sense. I also dont think too many live regs will 3b 98s out of the BB in a multiway situation, so blocking that is almost always irrelevant IMO.

Call and get shown TT