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1/2 Turned Set

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04-14-2017 , 10:53 AM

D_Lonnigan

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 291

Hero is MAWG. Probably viewed as decent reg in the game.

Villain is young asian kid. Very capable. TAG image.

Hero $1300
Villain $1800

Hero: 7

UTG limps $2, fold, Villain raises $20, fold, fold, Hero calls $20 on the BTN, fold, fold, UTG calls $20.

Flop ($63): Q

UTG checks, Villain checks, Hero checks.

Turn ($63) 7

UTG checks, Villain bets $40, Hero raises $140, UTG folds, Villain thinks...and calls $100.

River ($343): 5

Villain bets $375. Hero?

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04-14-2017 , 11:20 AM

Rhombo

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 223

Pretty safe fold. If V had a value hand on the turn, he would check the river most of the time, so that leaves flushes and KTs/T9s no diamonds that flatted intending to use a scare card when it comes. Leaning towards a flush since the latter is a rare move in 1/2 and the 7d seems to have helped his hand.

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04-14-2017 , 11:26 AM

DalTXColtsFan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 3,516

What is villain's image of you? Has he seen you raise a turn and fold a river before?

If he's a reasonably competent 1/2 villain his default read SHOULD be that no 1/2 player is going to fold a strong hand after betting $140 on the turn. He's not betting hoping you'll fold, he's betting hoping you'll call.

EDITED to say that if his river overbet is indeed a bluff, it's a bluff that has to work over 60% of the time. If he's capable of bluffing there once, he's capable of bluffing there twice, so if he takes this line again later when YOU have the nuts you can pick him off.

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04-14-2017 , 10:37 PM

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Like Rhombo said, the problem here is that the 7d appeared to help his hand. Other explanations don't make sense. If he suspects you of getting out of line on the turn, the problem is that if you were, the diamond is likely to have hit you. If he checked flop because he flopped top or middle set, I'd expect a turn reraise.

There's a chance you're good, but I don't think it's a third of the time.

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04-15-2017 , 02:40 AM

Rich Checkmaker

banned

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 2,441

sigh then fold.

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