This is 5/10 at Commerce. I have played with our opponent before but not much to say about him, just a good TAG regular and not seen to be tricky.

1) Do you 4bet pre
2) What is your cbet range on flop (if AQs is not part of your 4bet preflop range in this spot, that may affect your cbet range)
3) Do you bet turn and why or why not
4) On river, sizing? Anyone have an overbet range here?

8 handed

Hero (SB) $1300 with AQ

Folds
HJ (older recreational player, $800): Raise $30
CO (younger TAG regular, $1500): Raise $100
BTN: Fold
Hero (SB): Raise $290
BB: Fold
HJ: Fold
CO: Call $290

Flop KQ5 ($615)

Hero (SB): Check
CO: Check

Turn KQ57 ($615)

Hero (SB): Check
CO: Check

River KQ57T ($615)

Hero (SB): Bet $375
CO: (post results later)

Looks fine until turn. I'd like to know your reasons for checking. I'm betting ~400 there.

As played, I'm betting ~500 otr. Why did you bet so little? Hoping to get raised? I feel like you're more likely to get hero called if you bet closer to pot there.

Preflop is fine although I don't know if we should be using all AQs, but if we're playing a SB strategy in this spot of 4bet or fold (which I would) then I think 100% of AQs seems ok. I'd like a bit smaller 4bet size being only 1300 deep but whatever.

I totally get why you checked the flop and with this specific combo it makes sense to check the flop but on this texture after cold 4betting I'm cbetting 100% with a 1/3 pot bet size for simplicity.

I think the turn is a fine spot to bet and a fine spot to check; it's probably a mixed strategy. If I bet turn I think I'd size like 1/2 pot in game but I feel like an even smaller size like 1/4 accomplishes more with this exact combo. The hands that can continue vs a small bet we have absolutely destroyed; all better hands are never folding, there isn't much equity to deny and we're unlikely to face a raise but even if it does happen we can still call. Whereas if we bet like 2/3 pot we can get some folds from AJs-ATs, TT-JJ type hands

River is a tough spot to shove as a bluff because all your naked Ad combos, AdKx, AdQx, AdJx, AdAx are betting on either the flop or turn at a pretty high frequency, are now a straight, or don't make much sense to bluff shove the river (at least you have to be perceived as very creative to bluff shove AdQx).

So I don't think it makes sense to have a river over bet jam range here as you're not really gonna be perceived to/or actually have Ad blocker bluffs. I guess this applies a lot more if we were deeper, with only $1000 left on the river I guess we can jam more than just flushes for value so whatever man.

I'd probably bet 2/3 pot on the river.

In a vacuum, 4b AQs is probably better from sb than cold calling the 3b, but in practice, I prefer taking a hand that strong to the streets with some rec in a multiway to being heads up and oop against a reg. So, I'd definitely consider just calling the 3b.

After 4b, KQX flops kinda nut your range so betting can't be bad, but it's a top contender to have in a checking range. Would also check KK a decent amount. This will strengthen your check flop/bet turn range.

Turn is probably close between a bet and a check. Check/call may be better.

As for over betting river after turn check, I absolutely think it's an option. You just have to make sure you have an appropriate number of bluffs in your range by this point since V will be folding very often.

I would consider folding AQs pre OOP facing a 3 bet from a non tricky tag, although it depends on what his 3b range looks like. I think 4b/f > c.

I would probably bet small OTF probably with my whole range as mentioned by others. I mean, what do you intend to do if he bets? fold? If V is unlikely to bluff with an underpair otf, then maybe c/f flop is the right move, because he will probably bet AK/KQ/AA at minimum, if not KK/QQ. If he is protecting his value range with bluffs, you end up calling a flop bet, and he gets free check backs with some hands.

OTT, you pretty much gotta use a mixed strategy, but I think ignoring the overall mix, Id probably check, and if i face a bet, id CRAI here expecting id usually take it down (and occasionally run into sets)

OTR bet is your only option. the only time V bets river is with a slowplayed monster, which will raise otr anyway. I wouldve bet small OTR, probably 150 or so. I think this size gets called by any pair, lets him raise you with slowplayed sets or AJ more easily, and might induce a bluff raise from air. i also think potting it is better than that bet size

Folding aq s shouldn’t be a consideration
Xrai ott is silly this hand is way to strong to turn into a bluff

As played otr the small sizing is pretty meh/lower ev than betting pot or more

^ Snowie thinks the highest EV bet size on the river is pot (slightly higher than all in) however it also thinks the CO's calling range is AA and AK which I think in practice you will find either raise pre, or bet flop/turn

My read was that this guy may not call flop cbets often enough with JJ or TT (I dont think he has worse than this preflop, other than KQs). Also, he has a good amount of big hands too, QQ+ AK KQs. Yes I do have AQ removing some of those combos, but based on read and stack depth, I felt it was unlikely to see him show up with TT-JJ here and also continue on this board. I should have mentioned in the OP that my image was tight as well (another note: I actually had $1500 to start, made a mistake in OP).

On flop, given I’m not getting called by worse often here my overall strategy is to bet QQ and AK (AA and KK have more problematic card removal, so I check these), and balance that carefully with some AXs bluffs.

On the turn, its a close decision. Again though I felt he folds a lot of TT JJ pre and it can be player specific whether he will actually call turn with these (I felt that he wouldnt, and I trusted my read there). Altogether it becomes unlikely to see a call by worse if we bet turn. Additionally, many of his strong value hands will check back flop to induce bluffing from me on later streets, and getting jammed on after betting turn would be absolutely miserable with AQ (consider we have the A, so what would his check back flop + raise turn likely be?). I think if we bet turn it has to be small; his range is quite polarized still. I hate betting small though with a marginal made hand because it induces raises and puts you in difficult spots. I already got this guy to spaz raise me once this session when I hit a monster on a river in a different hand.

On river I bet this size because, in the moment, I felt like close to pot sized bets were going to be too obvious. It doesnt make a lot sense for me to bluff here when a) my perceived and actual range is weak and b) he still does have a decent number of hands he can call with (even after removing some after his turn check).... so I dont want to be betting huge. But you could make an argument for betting big and say that it just looks more bluffy, plus we can balance it by rarely bluffing (which we will naturally be doing, given our line up to river). I think it comes down to how he perceives me betting bigger. Also, on the outside chance he hit TT on this river I thought I could get a raise (or possibly another spaz raise with JJ).

As for the result. He tanked for 5-10 min, saying “I feel like I should make a smart fold”, then eventually called. He didnt show the table but he showed the player on his left and said “AK”. I asked the player he showed if it was really AK and he nodded, I think he was being honest.

Are we bluffing or value betting if we bet turn? Isn't second pair + NFD a good hand to xc since we can profitably call like any bet from villain?

VB imo. 2nd pair, nut kicker with a nut draw looks damn good to me given the action.

I'm sorry I missed the flop checking through.

Yes. Value bet turn is good.

1) No.
2) C-bet 33%
3) Check turn because i'm way ahead or I'm behind. I have a draw so I can give a free card and pot control. I don't want to barrel and over rep.
4) After betting flop checking turn I'd bet 33-40% on the river. he probably has jj, tt, aj. jj folds, aj and tt call (hoping we have aa, or ak).
As played I would still bet small on the river. An overbet will just look like a flush, aj or tt. even kk or qq.

I 4b pre AJs+, AK, TT+. Cbet 100% for 1/4 pot. Good turn check/call hand. I bet 75% on the river.