Quote:
Originally Posted by RichGangi
Looks fine until turn. I'd like to know your reasons for checking. I'm betting ~400 there.
As played, I'm betting ~500 otr. Why did you bet so little? Hoping to get raised? I feel like you're more likely to get hero called if you bet closer to pot there.
My read was that this guy may not call flop cbets often enough with JJ or TT (I dont think he has worse than this preflop, other than KQs). Also, he has a good amount of big hands too, QQ+ AK KQs. Yes I do have AQ removing some of those combos, but based on read and stack depth, I felt it was unlikely to see him show up with TT-JJ here and also continue on this board. I should have mentioned in the OP that my image was tight as well (another note: I actually had $1500 to start, made a mistake in OP).
On flop, given I’m not getting called by worse often here my overall strategy is to bet QQ and AK (AA and KK have more problematic card removal, so I check these), and balance that carefully with some AXs bluffs.
On the turn, its a close decision. Again though I felt he folds a lot of TT JJ pre and it can be player specific whether he will actually call turn with these (I felt that he wouldnt, and I trusted my read there). Altogether it becomes unlikely to see a call by worse if we bet turn. Additionally, many of his strong value hands will check back flop to induce bluffing from me on later streets, and getting jammed on after betting turn would be absolutely miserable with A
Q
(consider we have the A
, so what would his check back flop + raise turn likely be?). I think if we bet turn it has to be small; his range is quite polarized still. I hate betting small though with a marginal made hand because it induces raises and puts you in difficult spots. I already got this guy to spaz raise me once this session when I hit a monster on a river in a different hand.
On river I bet this size because, in the moment, I felt like close to pot sized bets were going to be too obvious. It doesnt make a lot sense for me to bluff here when a) my perceived and actual range is weak and b) he still does have a decent number of hands he can call with (even after removing some after his turn check).... so I dont want to be betting huge. But you could make an argument for betting big and say that it just looks more bluffy, plus we can balance it by rarely bluffing (which we will naturally be doing, given our line up to river). I think it comes down to how he perceives me betting bigger. Also, on the outside chance he hit TT on this river I thought I could get a raise (or possibly another spaz raise with JJ).
As for the result. He tanked for 5-10 min, saying “I feel like I should make a smart fold”, then eventually called. He didnt show the table but he showed the player on his left and said “AK”. I asked the player he showed if it was really AK and he nodded, I think he was being honest.