Effective 2.3k with villain

Villain is older man mid 50s been grinding poker for a living for 15+ years. Plays pretty standard uncreative tag. Views me as tight but capable not moves. Folds too much to 3bets imo

Pre: MP limps, v raises to 50 OTB, SB fish calls, hero raises to $240 with Qc9c from bb, only v calls.

Flop 540: Tc7d3d

Hero bets 230 v calls

Turn 1000: Ad

Both check

River: JD

Hero?

I think I prefer giving up. I don't know how villain plays in position and if we can get a good idea of his range. He could have a lot of hands maybe as poor as K9diamonds to as strong as JT or even a straight

The fold equity garnered by betting river after checking ace might be marginal.. fold out hands like 88, 99. Probably fold out tens as well. But then what does he have? QT, 9T, KT are the ones we can target. There's still worrisome AT and JT. And he could easily have an ace or jack, which he will almost always call as your line doesn't seem strong.

If bet, I think 625-675 is good amount. But I don't like betting here


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There's 4 diamonds. You think he always calls with Jx and ax no diamond?

Seems like a pretty standard bluff - your opponent is unlikely to have better than a bluffcatcher and your range on this board with this line has more nut combos than air combos

this seems like a good flop to just check and fold on, though

I think the flop is the more interesting decision. You have one overcard, and a couple backdoor draws, on a board that is more likely to hit your opponent than you in a 3 bet pot OOP against an opponent who likes to fold too much preflop to 3 bets. I check fold here.

didn't realize the river was a diamond , my bad. I think betting small, around 150-200 is nice here. It doesn't have to be successful often to be a good bet and get tens and jacks to fold. I don't think betting more is wise. 185 does the same job a 300 bet does against the range you're trying to fold out. Any flush is going to call. Two pair may get suspicious.. possibly betting bigger will fold out JT and AT -- what do you think?
It's possible a bare ace could fold here too on such a wet board. Although, what would he have on flop then... to call your bet.. no diamond, no pair on flop?

bet 185 I say


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Yeah flop might be a x/f but I think it plays ok as a bet as we still fold out hands like AQo no bdfd, KQo, QTs-KJs type hands (if he calls those pre which im not 100% sure on yet). Also so many good turn/riv barrel cards with our hand. Buttt I understand I will be checking a lot of my range on the flop and I gotta fold some hands

seems like the cards which give you a draw on the turn will be cards that improve a lot of his flop calling range

650-700.

A bit of an exploit and you hit that river more than they do. You got to give up some combos obviously but this probably as good as any other hand since you're not blocking pairs.

I don't like betting small since our range is lacking in small diamonds so it's hard to rep it and we have a lot of bluffs. Whatever you would be comfortable to bet Td here.

350

Bet $550-650 after re-checking your hole cards.

Pre is a better hand to call with. Most good players are playing a mostly polarized type strategy here btn vs bb cuz you get such a good price to just call you wanna peel w mostly everything and 3b the top and bottom, so like hands like 26s and aa/kk/ak your top like 5-10% q9s should fall solidly in your peeling range here, 3b is pretty loose, but sizing is good. But again if your going 5x w a linear strategy like this your bluffing too much for an expensive price.
Anyway, flop is just a range bet where you can go 24-33 % w your whole 3b range and start splitting your range ott. Keep betting on cards that help and do some giving up on turns like this, but betting turn could be pretty good as well and then doing some giving up otr
As played this is a must bet, you have one of the worst hands possible, and you can show up w plenty of nut flushes. You probably aren't betting much worse than the kd so going for 80-125% pot or so to rep/nuts/air is probably the way to go.

If he really does fold too much to 3bets, his range should be heavily weighted towards QQ/JJ/99/88. Any ATs+ hand should be betting the turn when checked to. Most Tx hands or smaller pairs will be folding or maybe even limp/calling pre.

3 combos of QQ, 2 w/ the diamond.
3 combos of JJ.
3 combos of 99, 2 w/ the diamond.
6 combos of 88, 3 w/ the diamond.

You could get called by as many as 10/15 combos or as little as 4/15 combos depending on villain's tendencies, your history together, how much you bet, etc... hard to say exactly what to do in a vaccuum.

The important thing here though - let's say this is his entire range and he's calling with 10/15 combos - any bet less than $500 is profitable. Given that you can't win at showdown and you have the worst hand you'll probably ever have here, and the fact that his QQ/99/88 w/ no diamond should always be folding, you should probably do this. Which number you choose depends on how elastic he is with the rest of his holdings (Will he call $200 w/ JJ but fold to $400? Or call w/ JJ for any size under $500?).

Obviously this isn't a perfect analysis - maybe he slowplays KdQd sometimes, maybe he has some 66/55/44 or more suited Tx some of the time, idk. But I think this is a solid representation of what we should do regardless.

Doesnt the fact that we're not closing the action pre change pre a lot? I mean I guess it would solely depend on MP's l/rr freqs which I obviously don't know being new-ish to MP. Also playing this pot oop 4 way doesn't seem that attractive to me. I get that our goal should be the lose the least possible from bb but not sure I like the idea of flatting here pre with this hand.

If we were closing action I would for sure call. I agree with flop; probably should bet smaller.