Playing 1/1 in the UK. 6 handed table. Villain has not long sat down after coming from the slots. Haven't seen him too often although he seems at least reasonably competent. Fairly ABC but capable of folding when he's clearly beat. Villain is effective stack with about 300.

SB 1
BB 1
Villain straddles to 2

Hero is dealt 99 UTG.

Hero raises to 7, folded to villain in straddle who calls.

I imagine villain is calling pretty wide in the straddle here- all pairs, all broadway combos, most connectors above 45 and gappers above 57 as well as pretty much anything suited.

Flop (16): T73

Villain bets 7, hero calls

When villain donks the flop I'm putting him on a range of Tx, 7x, 3x, some pocket pairs below TT, maybe some A highs, some straight and flush draws and possibly a monster hand like a set or 2P trying to induce. I'm obviously doing very well against that range, but don't see too much merit in raising.

Turn (30): Q

Villain bets 7, hero calls.

At this point, im pretty much eliminating the possibility that V is trying to induce with a monster, as I think he would be betting bigger by now, trying to build a pot. I also think the same is probably true with Qx if he has that. So it really looks like a mediocre made hand, or draw which is trying to see the river cheaply. Getting this price, I feel my hand is good easily enough or the time to call.

River (44) 7

Villain bets 15, hero raises to 60.

What do we think about this play? At this point villain's hand looks a lot like Tx, some PP below TT, or possible 7x. I feel V is very unlikely to have bet a flush this small, but I'm not sure whether I'm good often enough to call, even getting such a good price. Given how much Tx is in his range because of his loose calling range pre, I think raising here to put pressure on his weak looking range makes sense, especially with a diamond blocker, and 99 being near the top of my folding range? Think I can credibly rep a wide range of flushes which decided not to semi bluff raise, as well as 57s, 67s, 78s, 79s which would all take this line.

Thoughts? Any feedback appreciated. Cheers.

I don't mind the play but it is definitely villain dependent. Where I play, a lot of the guys would call this with a 10. If that is true for your villain, then what can you really beat?

I gave V a wide pre calling range (any ace, K9o+, SCs, 54s+, 75s+, 96s+, 76o+, 86o+, and 2 cards higher than 9, some other suited big cards).

On the flop, I kept all T's, 7's, 3's, and reasonable draws (FD, OESD, combo draws).

OTT, unless he donked the flop with two overcards, he has few Q in his range. He basically only donked Q's with a T or 7 or that were suited in diamonds. The T's and 7's have become two pair, and there aren't that many suited Q's.

OTR he has a buncha trips around the 7 and a buncha T's. If he still donks the T's (a fairly big if on this runout), he has a lot of hands that he'll fold. But not many V's bet, bet, bet with something like 2nd pair on a flush/paired board. I think you're going to get shown either a 7 or a flush a lot here. As eric says, highly V dependent. I'm calling getting 4:1 odds, but never raising.

I think raising the turn to charge his draws and make him surrender his equity in the hand would have been reasonable. With a stronger hand, you might just call to extract value on the river, but with 99 there are a lot of cards you're not going to be happy with OTR.

7 into a straddle just isn't enough with 99 utg Imo....
Flop is a pretty basic call...
The lol bet on the turn tells me this isn't a strong hand.... Villan would almost always make it a bit more on the turn if he had a big hand....looks like a weak t or a 7 in my view....
What is villans view of you, are you viewed as nitty,in which case this could be air from villan....
15 on the river, this looks like a 7 to me,it's to small of a bet to fold to though if we think villan has any air In his range, could also be a t played this way, which he know feels his q kicker is good enough to raise the bet size.....
You river raise is only good if you think villan folds a t.....he just came from the slots, so is probably gambley, not a reg.... I doubt he folds tp....

Its not top pair after the Q comes.

I like the play. We still have all our flushes in our range, and thats really it, so obv thats what we're repping. After villain bet fairly small otr, i think that takes a lot of flushes out of his range. So we are looking at like AT, KT, QT, or 7x mostly. I like our chances of getting folds. Everyone is hyper aware of the flush coming in. I personally feel like i would not get paid here, raising a flush.

Skimmed through, but doesn't 99d block too much of what you need your opponent to have? I suppose now he has less flushes, but has more pairs that may not release.

Its nice that we have the 9 of diamonds, although we block T9 which would be a great hand for villain to have, so this might be a wash

I like using these forums to test my analysis from both a live dynamic and vs analytical software (snowie)... In this situation as I read and thought it out you played the hand perfect up until the river and exactly how you should play it both live and snowie agrees. You could maybe consider raising early if you want to take it down or have him put money in bad, but with such a large range and a weak but okay holding on the flop probably best to call and realize your equity against this range so good on the flop. Turn is the easiest call ever, but I think you didn't plan very much into the river on what your true goals were.

On the turn you now hold third pair with a diamond blocker to his unlikely flush draw which we aren't really concerned with but possible; thus, even against this wide range your equity drops substantially. Think here before the river, what are my true money cards that can come that would even allow me to bet for thin value if checked to on the river? I don't know, an off suit 2 or 4? A 9 can bet safely for value on the river, but a jam there on a rivered set of 9's isn't fun (playing for stacks with a set of 9's would be a bit aggressive even against a fish but calling a XR would be ideal here on the off chance villain has higher set or straight)

When facing a situation such as this where you are likely ahead going to the river and in position, but hardly any cards left in the deck are safe cards for you. It is generally hoping for a X-X river. If you lose to some bull**** T or Q so what.

My thoughts reading are that depending on the opponent sometimes you can call this and sometimes you fold. Snowie actually agreed with me exactly when i ran the scenario to a mix of 47%call and 53% folds, but it assumes you are playing a high level player thinking about the same concepts, which you clearly were not playing such a villain.

Given the table dynamics and the exact player you are playing, I feel that it is a 100% call. Raising is the worst option and a losing play especially against this opponent. You allow him to fold out essentially all of his air which is all he can have that you beat. For that price villain does not fold enough of his single pair of tens in order for you to profit, let alone if villain has a Q, 7, flush (unlikely), etc. he still isn't folding.

this play is fine - we have a blocker to diamonds and his line makes absolutely no sense. You need to be very aware of your image when making this play as if you have been caught bluffing before, or look nervous this might not work

Villains line makes perfect sense to me. Has a weak hand top pair no kicker, a suited connected or one gap 7, or a flush draw. River bet is weak because the board paired. Here Villain is controlling the cost to continue. Line also makes sense if he has exactly 10 7 also and didn't want to scare hero off.
I don't see what our raise could be representing here that wouldn't have bet an earlier street. A set should have raised the flop. Would a flush raise on a paired board? I think our raise gets called here a lot.
I do think a straddler may be pushing air enough to call with 99 though. (We are getting 4-1 on our money and don't have to win very often.)

Yup. You are better with words explaining things. I think in +EV and numbers situations hahaha... But you summed up my previous response much better. Call. You lose so what. You really trying to win each and every pot off this clown? No. Win all/most small pots, 50/50 these medium pots in spots like this, and win all big pots with this villain. Follow those rules with this villain and 80% of the time you will see his stack be your stack

I guess I am the only one that likes raising flop or turn?

Flop, because you are well ahead of the range you give him; turn, because his bet is stoopid.

To clarify my point....this play is only good if you think villan folds a ten, I seriously doubt he folds tp (q) which he could legit of got to the river with, if he is just c-betting....
Imo trying to bluff guys that came from the slots is just sending your money up in flames....

This was pretty much my thought process at the time. I really felt it was unlikely he would show up with a flush or better, of that he would call with a T. I did expect to get snapped off by 7x or Qx sometimes though, or maybe a baby flush.

Call is an option too as many have said they would have done. But even getting 4:1, do we really win this enough? Surely his air would bet bigger so it really just leaves weak made hands worse than ours, of which there aren't many. Bit maybe I'm underestimating spazz factor.

Basically it seems to me this play is fine if villain is folding Tx, and terrible if he's not. Perhaps against a player who has come from the slots this is a little ambitious. Although even rec players are usually pretty respectful of bets on flush completing cards.

Thanks for all the responses lads, good stuff.

^ the problem is that this play is only slightly +eV if villan folds a ten but massively -eV if he doesn't, and therefore vs an unknown it's not a good play....
This is the sort of move best saved for regs that you have a bit of history/knowledge on.... The principle of the line is fine, but your villan selection seems very questionable to me.....

Yeah, the more I think about it the more I agree with you here.

Calling may be -ev for this particular hand but I also want to see his cards. His sizing was strange enough I want to see how his mind was working.

I like it w/ holding the 9 and there being more combos of tens he can have than flushes. It's a lot better than calling that's for sure. I think you should be folding the turn though.