Been away from the game for quite awhile and only recently started playing more than a few times a year. Decided to play in the biggest game in town (mistake #1) with a short stack (mistake #2) against mostly pros (the ding-dong trifecta). Anyways, was a long drive home and slept little thinking about the following hand:

Full-Ring game, 5/10 NL with mandatory 20 straddle. As mentioned, least 6 players at the table play for a living. Avg stack ~7k with two monster stacks of 30k+ and ~20k. Hero has ~2,500. Been playing for approx. 5 hours and playing tight with tight image (won a hand with A-A about an hour before this hand).

Action: Folded around to me in the cutoff+1. Stare down at two red Kings.

Raise to 65.
Monster stack folds
Button (~5k) who I have history with at lower stakes and 3 bets roughly every 15-20 hands, calls on the button. Blinds fold and Straddle (~10k, playing first hand since sitting at the table) makes the call for 45 more bringing us 3 handed to the flop.

Flop: k, 10, 8

Straddle ch, Hero bets 150, Villain calls, straddle tanks for a bit and calls. Pot = ~550

Turn: 6

Straddle checks. I stall a bit and bet 350. Button tanks for a minute and then makes it 900 to go. Straddle folds and it's back to me. Pot = 1,800 and I have ~1900 left.

?????

Thanks
B

I think you just have to call and re-evaluate river. His range is mostly weighted toward flushes because you block a lot of AcKx combos.

His flatting flop and then raising turn with someone left to act behind him and hero, playing tight, betting into two people twice on a flush board is insanely strong

I think you fold and be very careful about not exposing your cards on their way into the muck

Just ship it. If his range is exclusively flushes and straights, you have 22% equity. Throw in three combos of 88, and voila you have 33% equity (about what you need to jam profitably). Throw in TT, top two, and an occasional naked Ace, and now you're above 50% equity (the point where folding is much akin to lighting stacks of money on fire).

Yeah I don't think he ever should/will take this line with TT/88. He should be 3betting TT from the button but regardless, I don't think he's raising this spot with 88/TT anyways.

Honestly in this spot I'm just folding...

If we assume he only has flushes and if we boat up and donk jam the river and get called 100% of the time then I guess you could make a case for calling; I can't see a case for jamming. Your math is slightly off btw, the pot is ~650 OTT, not ~550 so the pot is 1250 + 650 = ~1900 and we have to call $550 with $1900 remaining effective.

So we have the right odds given those conditions but I feel like we don't get value on a board pair + donk jam often enough. His best bluffs are hands like AcQx, AcJx and maybe AcTx - but I feel like even if AcTx doesn't fold/3bet pre it's probably just calling turn as well - and the problem is that those hands are often raised on the flop or 3bet pre sometimes, leaving him with very few/if any bluff combos.

Basically what I'm saying is that raising turn in villain's shoes without the Ac is suicide, and he doesn't have many naked Acxx combos given the propensity to either 3bet pre with those combos, or raise flop; he's super weighted towards value and his value does not include worse hands.

But I mean whatever... this is a clear "theory" call (I think) despite everything I've said given the price OTT. So meh

It's 550 to call to win ~1900. You are literally getting direct odds to call and c/f any non board pair. No implied odds are even necessary. Folding is lollerskates to the max.

Yeah you're right. I did the math wrong. We are getting direct odds. Disregard my previous post call ott

This is what I concluded though I obviously have my doubts. I thought villain would 3-bet AcQc, AcJc, AcKo, and 10-10 which leaves Ac-10o, Ac-8o, 88, Qc-J and a made flush. With my stack size I thought that I would be calling any non-club on the river so I decided to push AllIn. I'm fairly confident after my 'result analysis' that I should have called and tried to save/re-evaluate on the river because i believe if the board pairs, villain pays me off anyways.

Some of you believe this is a foldable hand and I respect that as well. I actually thought about folding too, but only to "keep playing" and not be eliminated from the big game. My belief is I made a donk AI raise, which tells me that I shouldnt be playing those type of limits without filling some holes in my game.

For results oriented thinking: Villain had Ac4c and Hero did not pair the board on river. Thanks all for posting

-B

I don't think the shove on the turn is without merit either. Of the times V is drawing, since you are oop, V is never putting in another $ unless V hits his river card.

I can see plenty of capable villains taking this line on the turn with the naked Ac, esp against someone with the image of hero.

So for those advocating for the turn call/eval river due to direct odds, are you guys always folding on a river shove without improving? hero's distribution definitely limits V's 2 pair bluffs, but really? I'd have some difficult time laying this one down on the river shove, probably going into a tank and then leveling myself to make the wrong river decision.

call turn raise. Check fold rivers imo

I wouldn't donk board pairing rivers lol