Game is 5/10 with a mandatory utg $20 straddle.

Effective 2500

Villain is really good reg according to some other regs I know. Almost zero history with V and I'm new to the table. He probably sees me as a reg/regular rec player.

Hero opens TcTh from MP to $60, v raises to $180 from BTN, hero calls.

Flop $395 Ks9c3d hero checks v bets $125 hero calls

Turn $645 6d hero checks, v checks

River $645 Kc hero checks, v bets $560, hero?

Fold if he really is a good player

IME bet check bet from a good player is almost always value. And the river doesn't look like a good card to bluff.

The K does decrease combos of K hands he can have and tempts a call. But I think whenever I call, TT is beat.

Against a weaker player, I'd call.

You really think a good player is balancing their bxb lines less than a bad player?

he could have JT or Kx, I would fold

Bad players have too wide a range so they have too many bad hands and end up bluffing too much. It might not be as wide here though since it was 3bet preflop.

IME good players just tend to be value heavy here and not have too many bluffs.

Yes all the good players never have bluffs in the bet/x/bet that makes sense. The main questions are can he value bet a 9 and does he turn weakest part of range into a bluff. If he is good I’d assume both are true and call. If you are folding TT here every time my guess is good regs are relentlessly bluffing you


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Call.

If the main question is "does he value bet a 9", then exactly what I said is exactly what makes sense.






YMMV, but in this situation I have seen good players be too value heavy. I suppose we can pick straws about what we are each defining as a good player.




EDIT:

It is obviously exploitable to fold TT here. Folding TT here is obviously awful. Without some reason to think otherwise, vs. a good player if you call here with TT you will lose a large majority of the time ... IME anyway. Tendencies can vary in different player pools I suppose.

Easy fold imo

I suspect he is good enough to go for value with like QQ and wouldn’t be shocked if he took this line with a K8s-KJ hand either

Is this one of those live spots where because this looks like a bad river to bluff, that most pros will never bluff, even though they theoretically should be bluffing sometimes? So folding would be super exploitable but we do it anyway because its live poker and even live poker pros are technically bad at poker.

I don’t see why you think this is bad play from villain.

What line would you take with like KT or QQ ?

It's not bad that villain wouldn't value bet KT or QQ, but its got to be bad if villain never bluffs in this spot which is what a lot of people are saying and also usually my experience.

Easy call. He has aq.

It's pretty close and you'll wanna mix call/fold here - tt is gonna fit pretty ok in a calling range
He'll show up w qq/jj sometimes - he can include those hands in a flop small cbet strategy and bet this size otr.
He can have plenty of bluffs here tho and we unblock a bunch of a hi stuff that he 3b from the btn. Which is gonna be a big part of his mp vs btn 3b range. It's not a super hi ev spot here either way I dont expect it to be a huge leak to call or fold here.
One thing it's not is "lol duh easy call easy fold"

If you fold here, you probably aren't continuing very often at all. Just Kx you didn't vbet and boats that are c/ring. I'm not comfortable being so exploitable with so little info.

I would agree though that b/c/b lines are notoriously under bluffed lines even from good regs. So do what you want. Doubt it matters much either way.

He can value bet a 9, but I feel that pot is too large. A 9 bets like $250 and folds to a raise.

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I call here sometimes and always lose.

Fun fact we only need to win 30% of the time we call. It’s ok to be shown value most of the time. That means they are playing well


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Yeah this is a pretty clear call from a theory perspective. Especially vs his quarter pot cbet we should be defending a decent amount of hands, so once we arrive at the river we can't just fold everything that isn't Kx when we should have 77/88/JTs/QJs, maybe some QTs and KTs in our range

If you somehow get enough history to find out he's just way underbluffing then sure you can throw TT into your folding range and then... only defend Kx I guess, but seems silly to make a big assumption that your opponent is making a big mistake (underbluffing), when the only info you have on him suggests the exact opposite (good player = balanced range/should have bluffs)

He's for sure vbetting QQ/JJ here, doubt hes ever vbetting 9x without any meta, seems too thin -- thats not enough reason to just autofold TT on KK963r though

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All that being said, I would comment that a likely population tendency would be to underbluff this spot in a live 5/10 game

No ***** way he v-bets a 9 with a reasonable frequency. It's just way too thin.

This seems like a reasonably easy fold. If we he would see you as a reg for certain and had some history, I would call.

+1

Preflop and flop are good, I think leading very small on turn could be good, as played value bet the river 25-33% sizing. Yeesh, call river I guess (for the reasons Cbrewer listed).

How could you possibly think that would be good?

pretty easy fold considering ranges (mp vs btn). 9x/88 are slightly better to call than this hand. you could consider having some small % of Kx to c/c or c/r (depending on his river sizing) since he should be inclined to go pretty thin in this spot if you check river (obviously less so in this case with this sizing).

Because we need a stronger hand to call the flop than he needs to bet, and the turn card is irrelevant. Not saying it's standard but can do it once in a while.