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5/10/20 limped pot facing river x/r vs good reg 5/10/20 limped pot facing river x/r vs good reg

07-09-2018 , 10:24 AM
Villain is really good reg; very balanced and not afraid of high variance slightly +EV lines but definitely doesn't get out of line (overbluffing; going crazy, w/e) often, if ever. No specific exploitative reads. Views me as a good reg.

Other 2 villains are weaker rec players

Effective stack ~3k

Preflop: HJ limps, CO limps, folds to villain in BB who completes $10, hero is in straddle with 76 and checks

Flop($85): QJ5

Everyone checks

Turn($85): 8

Villain leads $60, hero raises to $200, rec players fold, villain calls

River($485): 2

Villain checks, hero bets $310 villain raises to $1175, hero?

Turn could be a little loose but I don't like calling with this specific combo with 2 players left to act and I don't like folding so...
5/10/20 limped pot facing river x/r vs good reg Quote
07-09-2018 , 11:06 AM
Seems like a very easy call.

V may not expect you to raise turn with many flush draws, and may think you fold all two pairs and maybe even sets on occasion. I mean, you're considering a fold with a flush... so I like his line.

Also, how often does he bet/call turn with flush draws? He pretty much has to have KJhh KThh K9hh JThh J9hh since he prob raises AThh and maybe A9hh pre and prob doesn't bet/call his weaker AXhh hands (just check/call those) on the turn. So, if he only has 5 combos beating you, and could possibly be over bluffing given how few combos of flushes you should have, I think you have to call with all your flushes.

He may also be raising his KJs-K9s pre against weaker opponents who limped.
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07-09-2018 , 11:37 AM
I'm finding it hard to find good bluff candidates for villain.
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07-09-2018 , 02:03 PM
Do you think he ever has Ah5x or KhTx?
5/10/20 limped pot facing river x/r vs good reg Quote
07-09-2018 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarretman
I'm finding it hard to find good bluff candidates for villain.
Ah 10x is the only obvious one
5/10/20 limped pot facing river x/r vs good reg Quote
07-09-2018 , 05:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by onedollars
Ah 10x is the only obvious one
Wouldn't even that have to fold ott given that turn was 4way and villain is oop? Gonna be pretty hard to realize that equity or bluff being oop and checking most rivers (unless villain plans on leading some rivers). But ya I agree it's the only obvious bluff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrandTheftOtto
Do you think he ever has Ah5x or KhTx?
I don't even know if those hands call turn given it was 4 ways. Ah5x for sure is a fold ott but KhTx ya I guess but still I dunno
5/10/20 limped pot facing river x/r vs good reg Quote
07-10-2018 , 12:12 AM
Meh
I'd call if what you say about him is true..balanced ..finds bluffs in every spots and all that

Fwiw I think i like flatting turn

Assuming neither of you lead flops..both of you have equal number of nuts. Sometimes players behind you will have the nuts if they are passive. So it seems challenging to construct a mature turn raise range.

Raising without a 9 or t in your hand is even more challenging ..increases chances of getting 3 bet ..hurts river bluffs on blanks coz you don't block the nuts

As played this card is much better for him than you. I would strongly consider checking 9t no heart here if I were you. So he should think of leading his flushes imo.

I am tempted to call because I think some good players will turn top pair + blocker hands into bluffs in these spots thinking you don't have flushes. Like qx9h qxth

But then again it means they are trying to get you to fold a straight. Some good players will never attempt to try to get you to fold strong hands..only weak hands.

If you have seen this player make thin bluffs trying to attack strong but not nutted ranges then I think calling is mandatory. Otoh if he the type of player who would never try to get you to fold a hand as strong as the nut straight reping backdoor flush no less, then I'd make an explo fold.

Last edited by iamallin; 07-10-2018 at 12:26 AM.
5/10/20 limped pot facing river x/r vs good reg Quote
07-10-2018 , 01:39 AM
Seems like one of our best calls. We block A6hh/A7hh. He really only has A3hh-A5hh for value; im not sure he uses this sizing with K high flush and all lower flushes just flat for sure

A10hh+ def raises pre, probably 50/50 A9hh depending on his preflop tendencies
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07-10-2018 , 01:20 PM
^ It's one of our best calls if villain can find bluffs... I mean villain can be creative but not that creative. Kinda suicide to raise this river without at least one heart blocker and given the turn spot, his range is in a weird spot.

Anyways I had 5h5x and I folded. Just felt like a weird spot imo. Wasn't sure what I'd even do with a flush.
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07-10-2018 , 08:46 PM
We only need him to bluff 1 or 1.5 combos to BE

Otf with 55 you should be betting 100% of the time
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07-12-2018 , 03:54 AM
55 seems too thin to v bet on this river for this sizing. You have all T9 and a bunch of flush draws that got there on river so not much incentive for him to bluff catch w/ 2 pair.

As for bluffs that V could have, QT w/T and Q9 w/9 come to mind but doubt he’s always calling turn raise and bluff raising river with those at 100% frequency.
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07-15-2018 , 05:32 AM
It sounds like we don't have a solid read on whether or not V is incapable of bluffing here.

GTO says this is a very clear call. We don't seem to have much of a reason to deviate heavily from that.

Additionally, what bluffs are you really going to show up with otr? If we always have QJ/55/T9, then V has an incentive to turn a lot of his bluffcatchers into bluffs.

That being said, it feels like he's just going to have it a lot, but thats OK, doesn't mean it was incorrect to call. Surely he at least has KdTx, maybe AdTx

You also said that you thought the turn raise was "loose" (its a very standard turn raise), if you're skeptical of raising this heart combo, it sounds like you dont have many flushes otr -- so if V knows that, even more reason to call.
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07-15-2018 , 05:01 PM
Now that you’ve established you had 55, why did you check a QJhh flop 4-ways in a straddled pot? Not even judging, just curious about the rationale. Introduces some huge variance.
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07-15-2018 , 06:08 PM
I like the raise on the turn and the sizing of it. When the two passives check behind the flop he should be leading that turn fairly wide (any jack or better, flush/straight draws, Ace highs especially the Ah) and you should be raising him with everything ahead of that range, which is a decent amount. His playing style and your past history is important here, but GTO is probably to raise about that much.

The river is a tough spot, it really depends on how the villain interprets your turn raising range. If you are raising the range I have above then he should be check raising a decent amount of hands that are worse than a flush for value, and bluffing some as well. In that instance you have to call

If villain puts you on a tighter turn raising range like 2 pairs+ with a few nut draws mixed in then it changes your river decision considerably. I don't think he would expect you to fold very much to a river check raise, making me lean towards folding. He has to have a decent amount of absolute hand equity to see the river unless he thinks you have a leak. If he does call the turn with a flush draw the way to get max value on the river is a check raise so the line is very strong
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07-17-2018 , 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave
Now that you’ve established you had 55, why did you check a QJhh flop 4-ways in a straddled pot? Not even judging, just curious about the rationale. Introduces some huge variance.
The 2 recs IP are spewy/splashy recs who are never checking Jx/qx or any straight draw and there's lots of value in x/r
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