5/10/20 older guy 40 from hj, CO 30 white guy hat beard calls me 200 KK from sb both call j82r 300 hj fold beard calls turn 2x 575 he calls river Ax I check he 725 ( only thing ive seen him call a 3 bet and donk aqdd 4 ways on kd7d3x and win on flop and he checked AQ on 34524 3 streets calling river and chopping vs Ax)

Fixed your abomination of a post. What are stacks?

We beat 9T. Does he seem like the type of guy to turn Jx TT etc into a bluff here? Bet Jx for value? I doubt it so I’d fold. Could have flopped sets too.

Didn't think it was that bad.. we started with about 4000

His river size seems as though it's almost never a bluff. Leaning very much towards a fold here.

It's one of those spots where he's repping really thin for value but also repping really thin for bluffs.

The good news is that he can perceive incorrectly that the A as a potential scare card for you. He really doesn't have that many Ax except AJ (maybe he folds the AJo combos pre as well) and A8s.

I'm going to assume that 2x means it's a full rainbow board - it actually matters a lot. If it's full rainbow he's very likely not going to have enough "pure" bluff combos except T9s. So he's gotta get a little creative with his bluffs (although with his small river sizing technically only having 4 combos of bluffs might be enough depending on how much AJ/A8 he has).

Pot is 2380 and he bet 725 so we need to be good 19% of the time. Theory wise this is an easy call but in reality I don't know if he's ever gonna bluff with this sizing and I'd need some history to know he's a good player before I start calling "appropriate" ranges vs these small bets.

In game I'm just folding this but I totally understand calling.

Isn't this only a "theory wise call" if we can figure he's bluffing 20+% of the time?

It would be a pretty ballsy player who calls 3bet pre, and floats 2 barrels on the clunkiest board ever, and end up bluffing 20% of the time.

Yeah... Saying "theory wise" is dumb. I should've used a better descriptor. I meant that this is a combo that clearly fits into the minimum defense frequency facing this small bet size. Not that I'm advocating that we aim to match the MDF.

in game and in reality it's much more important to think if he's bluffing or weird vbetting worse > 20% of the time. Which readless I would assume he's not, so I'd fold. But it's close

Of the (reasonable) hands he bets here on river

14 combos you're behind
21 combos your ahead of

pretty much a obligatory call here, barring any reads.

pre/flop are ok but I really don't like turn sizing. imho folding river is borderline atrocious. here's my money, sir.