5/10 with a 20 dollar straddle, hero's table image is pretty tag, table is playing pretty tight overall. V is pretty tight player, I don't recall seeing him 3 bet over 2 hours of play. 1500 effective.

OTTH: Hero opens to 60 utg with A K, v utg+1 three bets to 175, folds around, hero calls.

Thought about putting in the 4 here, oop, 75bb deep and vs a looser opponent or with ako I'd be more likely, but this guy was relatively tight.

Flop (385): KJ9
Hero checks, V checks.

Turn (385): KJ98
Hero checks, V checks

My thinking for checking here is that I have a solid hand, but on such a scary board I'm not getting too much value from worse. I thought v might have some traps, but in hindsight, I think v's check on such a wet flop is really range-capping. I gave v credit for qq+, and ak+, and that range destroys me, so if that range is accurate, I think I like a check here. Vs a looser/better player with a wider three bet range, would you consider a mergish over-bet here? I feel like we have a pretty significant nut advantage when v checks back the flop. I don't love giving a free card away on such a wet board, but I also think most of V's draws are betting flop.

River (385): KJ985
Hero bets 185

I really want us to rip it in pre just 75bb deep.

V hasn’t 3b once in two hours which is only rly like 30-40 hands - he’s probably tight but just too small of a sample to put him on KK+ here

Looks good, you can basically do whatever you want OTR. I do believe pre in theory is a mix call or reraise, if reraising prob to smallish to mediumish sizing (~50%-70% pot or so? Maybe?) sizing. Then again there is a ton of dead money in there so ripping it in just has to be close if not higher EV than raise-not-all-in but at the same time lots of dead money is kinda also an inducement to flat more so...

Kinda hard theoretically to put him on a hand bc he's so far ahead he really should just be cbetting his range so if you think he's rather imbalanced towards marginal SDV like TT and QQ then you can bet something cheeky and small OTR (like $40-$100) and expect to get paid off almost always and just exploitatively bomb your bluffs to capitalize on the suboptimally large amount of FE vs large bets V is granting you.

On the flip side, it's actually more of a mistake in theory by V to x a hand like TT than it is AK (AK blocks your continue-with-worse range and needs much less protection than TT which greatly benefit from getting AX to fold when TT are cbet) so it's not implausible to think he's still somewhat balanced, albeit capped, and in a suboptimal fashion having x flop, meaning we should def expect to see him show up with AK and also meaning in this scenario that heading to the turn V is still way ahead of our range meaning that we should not be probing this turn wide at all meaning we should be arriving at river with 55 (if you open them), 88, 99, JJ, possibly QT, certainly AK, et al but you should also arrive at river with basically a full slate (compared to your starting range) of quality bluffs like A8, A9 (heavily blocking AK), 44 (getting most better pairs to fold), et al.

^^Meaning, in theory you have enough value and bluffs to balance really any sizing you want, even a jam for 3x pot is valid with AK (along with your fattest value of course) to move V off chops occasionally and even AA (which in theory also make for an OK turn xb for V)

In regards to 4 betting pre, I think I'd be fine with it if it weren't utg vs utg+1. I agree two hours is a small sample size, but V was tight in his opening range in general, and I don't think he's really going to be three betting me that light in such early position. I think there's a reasonable chance his range is qq+ ak+, maybe jj+ aq+, but I don't see him getting much wider than that, although given how the hand played out maybe I'm wrong.

Eggs, ty for that analysis. In terms of playing a full range/balance, I think the overbet otr seems best, and I think exploitatively live medium bet with value and overbet with bluff seems good.

You can't medium bet for value and overbet with bluff. Medium bet with likely ahead 1 pair, maybe 2 pair hands. You have to overbet with some of your nut hands. Straight hands are best because they block straights (better hands) but don't block 2 pair and sets (good second best hands).

Maybe bluff with hands like TT and T9 that are most likely behind but block straights.

It's an exploit.

What are we exploiting? Op didn't say that opponents fold to big bets and call small bets otr. It's not an exploit. It's exploitable.

Jam is going to perform best pre ime but call is fine

I'd lead turn 1/4 pot very high freq with this combo, can also add some big bets as well.

River I'd lead bigger like 3/4 or 2/3 pot area

Turn looks like a clear bet

However, as played, the river bet seems good also.

shove pre for balance

I have a couple issues with jamming pre. First, UTG+1 3bet range here is super narrow. QQ is probably an optional 3bet there, and JJ is a clear flat. I understand we need to balance, but if we jam AK here we probably have to jam all KK and AA. Are you guys really jamming those here too? Especially against live players, I think jamming (instead of normal 3x 4bet) causes us to lose value over our entire range. I would be OK jamming pre if our stack was 50-55BB.

On the turn, bet.

Jj is a pretty hi frequency 3b vs most utg ranges imo

May look at this one later but I kinda think just going bet bet jam could be kinda sweet here as the oop when you do decide to flat ak for 75bb or whatever op said effective stack was pretty sure it was sub 100

From UTG+1, 9-handed?

I'm curious if that's what most think. I don't have the ability to run a solver on this but I have seen solver based ranges that put JJ as an optional 3bet from the HJ vs LJ open.

The problem with 3betting JJ from UTG+1 vs UTG 9-handed is that it dramatically weakens your flatting range, and you will want/need to flat some hands vs UTG's open. It could be argued that at some weaker tables (live poker) you don't have to worry as much about this.

You aren’t supposed to really do much flatting there anyway. Many good players now are just 3b entire continue range vs an open. As long as v is opening all his smaller pairs and kjs/jt s the 3b makes money

So just checked and there’s obviously 0 flop leads ak has like a sliver of betting frequency but it’s just basically a pure check
Ott pio likes betting our ak without a club and checking the ak that has a club so you’re hand is a pure bet that mixes between then 33% size and the 90% size I gave.
Otr obviously pure bet i only Gave one 75% size and its obvious being used 10%

So what does your range look like here? I'm very interested, if you're playing 3b or fold, are you three betting nines here? I imagine the benefit is it leaves you less vulnerable to squeezing, you already should be playing quite a strong range here, and saves you from having to balance your calling range.

Ironically many good players would flat their entire continue range UTG+1 v UTG pre here

But i do agree it would be very tricky to balance both a flat range and a 3bet range

I mean I don’t have it perfect but you’re supposed to play really tight in these positions

Couldve sworn turn was a mix when I ran it, the logic being were not supposed to be in this node of the tree (in theory a pure cbet) thus were still way behind IP players range OTT thus we cannot probe turn wide at all this even top of range must mix in x to avoid our probing range from being exploitably strong and our x range from being exploitably weak

The 3bettor was pure cbetting in your sim lp16?

sorry there’s some typos in that post
But yeah the turn mixes a lot and I just thought was really interesting how the ak combos with a clubs were checking very frequently and without clubs ak likes betting more - the ev’s of both actions were quite close though and I think In game you just wanna say yeah I wanna bet often here but not every time and check your rng so you are keeping your frequencies reasonable
Forgot the ip line otf here but imagine There’s probably little to no checking for
The ip 3bettor