Hero young image
V is MAWG, seems like solid reg but no history

$1000 effective stacks

Hero UTG+2 with AA (no diamond), raise to $60
V in SB calls

Flop: J75r (~$150)

X, Bet $65, Call

Turn: J75Tdd (~$280)

X, $175, Call

River: J75T4ddd (~$530)

X, Hero shoves for ~$700

Thoughts?

Why? You essentially turned your hand into a bluff. Was that the purpose? With what is v going to call? Tpgk, maybe JT, sets, 86, flush? With what else can he possibly call? With what flush hands would you get here using this line?

Yeah, I agree with previous comment. I just don't see how you're going to get called by worse on the river unless your routinely overplay your hands.

Well, I'd put this in the category of thin value, but still very real value - at the end of the day don't we have AA and this is for 100bb?

I bring up this hand because I am trying to find the optimal spots to overbet / polarize. From what I understand this board is not a traditional spot to overbet since it's fairly dry (I don't think the back door diamonds was very relevant, low chance either of us have it), but this was my thinking (in order of importance):

- V is capped and the runout is dry; there aren't many hands we have that can bet 3 streets and we have one of them so a bet will look fishy, can get called / hero called (put TPGK hands in pain)
- Calling down light is a global leak, even for solid 5/T regs, so I tend to up my bet sizing in general (both bluffs and value bets)
- LAG image (young player), some regs may adjust by calling me down lighter?
- Awkward stack sizes, can't really fold to a raise anyways...

Thoughts? I'd appreciate input on how to think of these overbet spots, trying to incorporate them into my game

It's for 50bbs. But don't put yourself in an overbet spot in the first place, this one is too polarizing and like other posters said, you're turning your hand into a bluff.

If you want to get your stack in for this flop SPR, bet more like $100 into $150, then $250 into $350 on the turn, and now you only have $590 left in an $850 pot on the river.

I don't think you actually want to play for stacks on this particular runout and I'd probably consider checking the turn and making the two streets we're playing for value flop/river instead of flop/turn, but yeah, it's silly to me to play a $700 bet on the river into a $530 pot, your opponents are going to play too perfectly against it (call with straights, flushes, and two pairs, fold any one pair hands).

Would you just go 1/3 1/3 1/3?

if u wanna overbet, the turn is the time for it not the riv.

I don't like the river OB, bet more on the turn.

How do our sizings change if we have AJ vs. AA?

Do we play the exact same or do we go 1/3 every street with AJ?

33% - 100-200% - x

Im assuming you mean this for AJ - Why are we overbetting more with AJ when we block top pair hands we want to target compared to AA?

earlier you said 80%-110% for turn w/ AA (not sure what happened to that post, seems to have been deleted)

Appreciate your responses just trying to learn optimal ev bet sizes better..
thanks

Dont overbet when you dont block nutted hands and block likely call downs.

Aa without a diamond fits both.